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Old 12-19-2006, 09:31 AM
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Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

I have made some blinds schedules and am not sure if the levels are in line when considering the M factor, and am hoping someone can tweak them or tell me if they're too high/low. Here's some background and the overall goals I'm trying to accomplish:

- A very friendly tourney-style game that keeps as many players in it for as long as possible
- Anywhere from 5 to 15 players
- About 4 hours of playing time from start to finish
- 20 minute levels
- rebuys after busting out for the full starting amount
- A relatively slow blinds progression
- Overall betting is on the passive side
- About half of the players have a loose style

I start everyone with T20,000 (100x20, 500x12, 1000x12) and the first BB at 1% of the starting stack (we like having tons of chips on the table). To fully exploit req. #1 rebuys are permitted for the first 6 levels. This can lead to huge increases in the total economy on the table and I'm attempting to adjust the blinds in the middle to end game to reflect that so we can keep it close to a 4 hour tourney. Here's a sampling of the blinds I use now:

100-200 200-400 300-600 400-800 600-1200 800-1600 .color up 100's, rebuys end. 1000-2000

The remaining levels are adjusted slightly to reflect the total economy.

For 8 total buys (160,000 TE): 1500-3000 2000-4000 2500-5000 .color up 500's. 4000-8000 6000-12000 8000-16000

* Note: at the end of the 6000-12000 level the 4 hour mark is hit and the SB+BB = about 10% of the TE, and this has been working out well for ending the tourney. Sometimes the next level is needed (BB=10% TE) which is fine also, it only takes us to the 4:00 - 4:20 mark.

For 14 total buys (280,000 TE): 1500-3000 2500-5000 .color up 500's. 4000-8000 6000-12000 10000-20000 14000-28000

For 20 total buys (400,000 TE): 2000-3500 3000-5500 4500-9000 .color up 500's. 8000-16000 13000-26000 20000-40000

I realize that's some big numbers to work with, but I like using the big chips. There's also some goofy levels in there - it's just the way my math came out.

I like the slow beginning levels and would like to keep those intact. It's the 3 varied endings that concern me. I just tried to make a smooth progression that avoids doubling, although on the last scenario it comes very close.

So how do these compare to a schedule that considers the M factor? I'm very curious to see how these 3 endings would differ.
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Old 12-19-2006, 10:07 AM
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Re: Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

That's certainly a very interesting way to go about doing things. I've never thought of varying the final blind levels based on the # of buyins. If your players are cool with it, it makes it such that the levels are smaller overall since a one-size-fits-all structure dictates a more aggressive ending (based on smaller starting blinds). If i built a one-size-fits all schedule, it would look like this:

100/200
200
300

400
600
1000/2000 (rebuys end)

1500/3000
2000
3000

4000/8000
6000/12000 (10 buyins, game ends)
10000/20000 (15 buyins, game ends)

15k/30k (20 buyins, game ends, 4:20 mark)
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Old 12-19-2006, 10:24 AM
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Re: Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

Thanks, a great suggestion. And yes, I am a math junkie. What I have now is a spreadsheet that accepts the starting amount (any) and number of players (also any) and spits out the 13 blinds levels. I'm just wondering how my patterns and formulas relate to others - ones that use some different data/variables/factors to create a schedule for the same parameters.
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Old 12-19-2006, 10:34 AM
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Re: Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

here are your blinds (sorry, i can't format them properly)

8players:
level small big tot time bb/te tM
1 100 200 0h20m 0.1% 533
2 200 400 0h40m 0.3% 267
3 300 600 1h00m 0.4% 178
4 400 800 1h20m 0.5% 133
5 600 1200 1h40m 0.8% 89
6 800 1600 2h00m 1.0% 67
7 1000 2000 2h20m 1.3% 53
8 1500 3000 2h40m 1.9% 36
9 2000 4000 3h00m 2.5% 27
10 2500 5000 3h20m 3.1% 21
11 4000 8000 3h40m 5.0% 13
12 6000 12000 4h00m 7.5% 9
13 8000 16000 4h20m 10.0% 7

14players
level small big tot time bb/te tM
1 100 200 0h20m 0.1% 933
2 200 400 0h40m 0.1% 467
3 300 600 1h00m 0.2% 311
4 400 800 1h20m 0.3% 233
5 600 1200 1h40m 0.4% 156
6 800 1600 2h00m 0.6% 117
7 1000 2000 2h20m 0.7% 93
8 1500 3000 2h40m 1.1% 62
9 2500 5000 3h00m 1.8% 37
10 4000 8000 3h20m 2.9% 23
11 6000 12000 3h40m 4.3% 16
12 10000 20000 4h00m 7.1% 9
13 14000 28000 4h20m 10.0% 7

20players
level small big tot time bb/te tM
1 100 200 0h20m 0.1% 1333
2 200 400 0h40m 0.1% 667
3 300 600 1h00m 0.2% 444
4 400 800 1h20m 0.2% 333
5 600 1200 1h40m 0.3% 222
6 800 1600 2h00m 0.4% 167
7 1000 2000 2h20m 0.5% 133
8 2000 3500 2h40m 0.9% 73
9 3000 5500 3h00m 1.4% 47
10 4500 9000 3h20m 2.3% 30
11 8000 16000 3h40m 4.0% 17
12 13000 26000 4h00m 6.5% 10
13 20000 40000 4h20m 10.0% 7

the way you've structured it the tM reaches about 9-10 at the 4hr mark

however, i don't like the blinds progression for the last one. it's too fast.

i think that having the same time limit for 8 players as for 20 players really penalizes the players at the bigger game.

i would suggest sticking with one blind structure and then adjust the initial chipstack depending on number of players. that way you could keep the total chips in play ("total economy", in your terms) consistant whether you have 8 or 20 players. and therefore your tourney would end the same time (i still think a 20 player tourney should be structured to last longer than an 8 player game)
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Old 12-19-2006, 10:49 AM
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Re: Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

SWEET! Thank you!
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Old 12-19-2006, 10:55 AM
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Re: Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

Quote:
Originally Posted by steve5k
Thanks, a great suggestion. And yes, I am a math junkie. What I have now is a spreadsheet that accepts the starting amount (any) and number of players (also any) and spits out the 13 blinds levels. I'm just wondering how my patterns and formulas relate to others - ones that use some different data/variables/factors to create a schedule for the same parameters.
i use starting stack, first bb as ratio of starting stack, minutes per player (at a table), and ante as ratio of sb. this will usually give me the first level and then i manually adjust each subsequent level
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Old 12-19-2006, 11:27 AM
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Re: Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

Just 2 more questions. What do you think an 'ideal' tM should look like for a tourney like this (if it matters, 14 players); and what is the formula for calculating a tM for any given level?
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Old 12-19-2006, 11:58 AM
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Re: Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

Just as a side note, the most people I've ever had playing was 14, and that was only twice over the past year. I only extended the schedule to 20 to factor in the rebuys, which are at the full amount of the starting stack. The tourneys usually have 8-10 participants, but the number of rebuys can get very high. The record is 14 players and 10 rebuys!
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Old 12-19-2006, 01:37 PM
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Re: Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

If you want the full out math way to do it:
Figure out the starting blinds
Figure out the ending blinds (SB = total # chips / 30)
Figure out how many levels you want (n)

compute x such that:
starting blind * X^(n-1) = ending blind

LOG X = 1/(n-1) * LOG (ending blind / starting blind)
X = invLOG(1/(n-1) * LOG(ending blind/starting blind))

Your blind for level 1 is:
starting blind * X^0

blind for level 2 is:
starting blind * X^1

etc.

Round off to the nearest blind level that makes sense. (i.e. don't have 333/666 blinds, make em 300/600 or 400/800)
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Old 12-19-2006, 02:05 PM
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Re: Need help with the 'M' factor for blinds

Quote:
Originally Posted by steve5k
Just 2 more questions. What do you think an 'ideal' tM should look like for a tourney like this (if it matters, 14 players); and what is the formula for calculating a tM for any given level?
i don't personally use tM in my calculations; i think JMC mentioned it in his blinds structure article, check it out.

for a tourney w/o antes i usually estimate that the tournament will end when the bb is 4% of the total chips in play +/- 1 level (that's why i included the percentages in my suggestion)

so for 14 player x 20,000 = 280,000 chips in play
4% x 280,000 = 11,200, rounding it to the closest bb that you have, 12,000

for 8 players = 160,000 chips in play
4% x 160,000 = 6400 or between 5000 & 8000 from your 8 player structure

20 players = 400,000 chips
4% = 16,000

my calculations differ for structures with antes; i calculate the average M value, assuming heads up play at each level. that is, i assume that there are only 2 players left in the tournament with equal chipstacks. i calculate each player's M at each level of the structure.

i'm taking an informal survey at homepokertourney and i have a gut feeling that tourneys are ending when the average heads up M dips below 20; lower if very tight players are remaining
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