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Hero has those aces

Discussion in 'Poker Strategy General' started by DrStrange, Feb 9, 2018.

  1. jldecarlo

    jldecarlo Super Moderator
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    I hate flatting the turn. I know that a big flop bet could cost you your stack, but I still favor aggression.

    The turn is one (of many) terrible cards for hero. Surrender. If you were ahead, then you just got out-played.
     
    #21
  2. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't seem like this type of villain is going to connect the fact that you 3-bet to the fact that you probably have a premium hand, so there's a chance he's betting with a hand like KQ or KJ and thinks he's ahead. The problem here is that when you're behind, you're way behind and either drawing extremely thin or drawing dead.

    Sure, maybe he has KQ or KJ and is betting with what he thinks is the best hand, or maybe he's semi-bluffing with a flush draw ... but it doesn't seem worth it to me to blow off any more money here when your odds of winning the hand just might be zero. Like I said earlier, you'll find a better spot.
     
    #22
  3. SixSpeedFury

    SixSpeedFury Well-Known Member

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    I feel like he's throwing out feeler bets to see where he's at with his draws to then bomb the river if he hits.
     
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  4. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Hero calls $15. That makes $85 in the pot with effective stacks of $80. Hero is not stacking off. Hero holds :Ac :As

    The river: < :9h :jc :8h > :qc :9c

    Villain bets $15. Fold, call or raise? If not raising all-in, how much and why?

    For what is it worth, villain rarely considers what is plausible from a street by street analysis. he can see the flush and the straight possibilities but does not use logic to decide what types of hands Hero might hold. Keep in mind that villain is quite sticky - not much chance he folds any hand better than pocket aces, though he might call a raise with a top pair type hand.
     
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  5. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    While I would have been out of the hand before seeing the river, now that we're faced with this scenario I'm calling 100% of the time. He could have had a hand like QJ which you now beat, and he only needs to be bluffing a fraction of the time for the odds to be right for a call anyway.
     
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  6. atomiktoaster

    atomiktoaster Well-Known Member

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    $15 into $85? Despite that being about the worst river I can think of (:jh maybe?), you have to be calling. Hell, you probably have the math to call at $30, which feels like a better value bet size from villain.
     
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  7. RowdyRawhide

    RowdyRawhide Well-Known Member

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    I'm just calling here.....I agree I would have folded on the turn though

    Agree with $10 preflop,
     
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  8. softchewy

    softchewy Well-Known Member

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    since hero called the turn.. there is no scenario where I'm not at least calling $15 into this pot (barring some known tell popping out etc.) It's a rough board.
    I'll pay to see it, but not raising here unless I've figured something out.
     
    #28
  9. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    *** Results ***

    Hero calls $15. I thought the :9c was one of the better cards for Hero to catch at the river. Villain seems quite unlikely to have made a back door flush that was not already a straight. I guess :kc:7c could be in villain's crazy range and :7c:6c might be more reasonable. Hero counterfeits more two pair combos than villain makes trip nines without already holding a straight.

    Villain tables :kc :kh and hero rakes it in.

    That was quite a surprise - hard to imagine not getting 4-bet preflop.

    So we see the key decision was on the flop - Hero has a not-quite low enough SPR and ends up making a fancy play that left villain with half his stack.

    Opportunity missed -=- DrStrange
     
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  10. JFCJ

    JFCJ Well-Known Member
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    His bet sizing just seemed like a trap, but it appears he was betting scared... Great read. Thanks for your insights.
     
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  11. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Hero was about one red chip from folding on the turn. . . .
     
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  12. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting ... curious as to whether the villain thought he was betting for value or trying to control the pot size and keep it small on the turn/river.
     
    #32
  13. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    Also interested to know what the reaction of the rest of the table was to this hand. At my game there would be a lot of post-hand analysis -- not all of it great analysis mind you, but there would be plenty of "experts."
     
    #33
  14. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Villain was likely thinking "blocking", not "value". Someone making "same bet" when it is a small bet is normally blocking, not value. In a different situation with a solid sized value bet on the turn, followed by "same bet" on the river is generally for value hoping for a crying call - - - not the case in this hand.

    The table mostly thought villain got off light with KK vs AA - - - and they would be right. The old man coffee wanted a 4-bet from villain preflop "to see where he was".
     
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