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Hero has those aces

Discussion in 'Poker Strategy General' started by DrStrange, Feb 9, 2018.

  1. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Playing $1/$1 live, seven handed (actually two seven player tables). We are about three hours into the game when this hand comes up.

    Cast of characters:

    We'll talk more details later, but the entire table is loose to foolhardy except hero. There is a wide range of aggression / lack there of with the players. Stacks range from $50 to $300. Hero caps five players and is equal to the sixth player.

    The hand.

    Five players limp - that is everyone.

    The small blind makes it $3 to go (Playing $120). This player is on the LAGtard / foolhardy side of the table. His play is quite inconsistent. I estimate his range for this raise is maybe top 35% of hands? He absolutely raises hands Hero would fold. This player is "unbluffable" up to a point.

    Action is on Hero holding :As :Ac . Never folding - so flat the raise or 3-bet? if raising, how much?

    Best guess - if Hero calls $3 we will have a six or seven way pot. Maybe a $10 bet is needed to get three-way or heads up. A $20 raise folds out the table.
     
    #1
  2. detroitdad

    detroitdad Well-Known Member

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    11 bucks
     
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  3. David P

    David P Well-Known Member
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    Raise to $15
     
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  4. slisk250

    slisk250 Well-Known Member

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    I'm never ever slow playing AA. Raise to 12
     
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  5. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    No way you want to play this 6-7 handed. I'd make it $15.
     
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  6. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Looks like the consensus is raising enough to get most of the table to fold. Hero must have agreed . . .

    Hero makes it $10 to go. Everyone folds to the SB who calls. That makes the hand heads up with $25 in the pot.

    A better villain read: Villain is playing $120 and Hero easily covers. He is a LAGtard, but erratic, bordering on unpredictable (not close to profitable though) . This villain is very sticky. The best profits in a hand vs villain are often gained by passively letting villain bet/bluff rather than taking the aggressive line. Judgement is key - very stick villain who likes to bluff means both passive and aggressive lines can end up being best.

    This villain doesn't care about position, nor understands the concept of why it might matter. He does think about the other players in the hand, but is often more focused on prior hands than the current hand. He is fully in the "play the player" camp. Math and logic are not parts of his game.

    A week ago I would have said villain has a solid betting tell, both sizing and mechanics (he pounds the chips as he bets a big bluff.) Today I can't be so sure. Two times earlier this session villain has made small bets with well above average hands and induced Hero to "value bet" with worse hands. At least for today we can't rely on these types of reads.

    The flop: :9h :jc :8h

    Villain leads out with a $15 bet into a $25 pot. Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising, how much?

    Where do we think hero stands vs villain?
    a) Hero is crushing villain - way ahead fading less than four outs.
    b) Villain is on a draw with four to nine outs.
    c) Villain is on a big draw / combo draw with ten+ outs
    d) Hero got out flopped - villain has two pair / set / made straight.

    while we are just guessing at the moment (well Hero was just guessing, smarter/better players might have known) The fold/call/raise decision implies an opinion about villain's range.

    DrStrange
     
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  7. slisk250

    slisk250 Well-Known Member

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    With such an erratic villain, I'm tempted to come over the top. I think he could be on a flush draw, maybe jacks. Could he have a set? I think we are ahead, don't let him get a cheap card.

    pot sized bet - 40
     
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  8. detroitdad

    detroitdad Well-Known Member

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    exactly what I was thinking
     
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  9. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    If Hero is raising, that seems like the early people are thinking hero is pot commitment. In other words, ranging villain as "b", hero is comfortably ahead but villain has enough of the board to blow off his whole stack. Also Hero is willing to fade the RIO issues related to AA vs draws.

    Eg. $45 "all day" is a $30 raise into a $55 pot. That leads to a $115 pot and effective stacks down to $65.

    The SPR is a bit tricky for a wetter flop - $25 pot / $110 effective = 4.4. Well below the trouble zone, but not the comfortable < 3 preferable for a coordinated board.
     
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  10. detroitdad

    detroitdad Well-Known Member

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    , I only understood a little bit of that post doctor strange but fuck it let's Gamble
     
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  11. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    If could edit my post, I'd clean up some typos. But I can't so folks will have to make their best guesses.
     
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  12. Meddler

    Meddler Well-Known Member
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    It's all going in anyways so jam it now.
     
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  13. Jem

    Jem Member

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    Flat calling here. Flop is much better for Villain’s range than Hero’s. Let Villain bluff away if he has a flush draw or Jack plus combo draw like JT, QhTx or JhKh type of hands.

    I think a raise for protection/value has merits especially when many turn cards will be really bad for Hero. Any 8,9,T,J,Q or heart is bad I think if Hero raises here, he will get called by many hands that have better equity than ours and will fold out villains bluffs.
     
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  14. jldecarlo

    jldecarlo Super Moderator
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    Pre-flop: You have to raise unless you enjoy playing AA OOP against the whole table. $10-15 is good.

    Post-flop: If the villain has out-flopped you already, you are toast. More likely, he's on one of several draws. If you flat and a Q, J, T, 7, or heart hits, you probably have to fold to a bet. Pump it up a good bit. $60-75 to go.

    L
     
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  15. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    My actions would depend on villain's night so far, and how he has responded. Is he behind? If so is he the type who likes to gamble to try to get even? Or does he start to shrink to aggression and curse his luck? From the sounds of it, he's the type who says "F--- it, let's gamble."

    If he's unbluffable, he may think you're trying to just buy the pot and could even call with a hand like KJ. You're ahead more often than you're behind, and if he does have a draw it's probably a coin flip.

    Based on the information, provided, I think I'm jamming and am prepared to be WAY behind 10% of the time, flipping a coin half 40% time, and ahead half time. (These percentages are complete guesses, but that's what my gut says.)
     
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  16. steverino

    steverino Well-Known Member

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    Off topic, but I'm glad you're back, Doc. I don't contribute much but I enjoy reading your strat posts.
     
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  17. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Hero is not clear what is going on with Villain's hand, knows this villain has a history of hanging himself and will gain some clarity by letting the turn be dealt. So hero's plan is flat the flop bet and jam on a turn brick but proceed carefully on a scary board.

    We are heads up, with a $55 pot. Effective stacks are $95.

    Hero holds :As :Ac

    The turn is < :9h :jc :8h > :qc

    Villain leads with the same bet - $15.

    Action on Hero. Fold, call or raise - if you raise less than all-in, why less?

    DrStrange
     
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  18. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    At this point I'm folding. If he managed to bluff me out, so be it. You'll find a better spot against this villain.
     
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  19. Dingoflush

    Dingoflush ChipTalk.net Supporter
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    same here, too many outs there for my liking, take the hit and go again.
     
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  20. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    I am still interested in how folks range villain. Hero didn't have a solid opinion.
     
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