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End Game Strategy ITM

Discussion in 'Poker Strategy General' started by Mojo1312, Dec 2, 2017.

  1. Mojo1312

    Mojo1312 Well-Known Member

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    I witnessed an unusual play and ending to a 15 player $50 tournament this week. Right after the blinds went up, one of the three remaining players said he had to work early in the morning and promptly shipped his 9.5BB stack with 3/4 suited. The SB, who covered him with 11BB's, snapped called with pocket TT's. The BB, with 4.5BB's behind, folded.

    Third place paid out $125, Second $250, and First $400.

    The tournament started 5 hours earlier.

    Low suited connecters are deceptively strong, which makes me wonder if the player who had the button was angling in an attempt to pick up the blinds. If so, how would you rate his play?

    The pocket tens held.

    The player who won the hand and now had 20.5BB's immediately offered to split the prize pool for first and second with the remaining player who had less than 5BB's.

    Seems like the big stack didn't have any real end game strategy outside of splitting the money if he made it to heads up play.

    Comments?
     
    #1
  2. joepro

    joepro Well-Known Member
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    Small suited connectors lose value shorthanded. Shoving in that situation is idiotic, as is chopping after that hand. LOL donkaments.
     
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    CdnBeerLover likes this.
  3. Jimulacrum

    Jimulacrum Well-Known Member

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    Offering a 50/50 chop is kinda silly when you're more than a 4:1 chip favorite and the blinds are so large that heads-up skill is almost immaterial.

    Maybe the guy just has a policy of chopping at the end because he doesn't like gambling when he could "gain" that $75 right now. I'd bet he got burned playing it out once or twice and took second, or he's played in a lot of home tournaments where people are impatient to wrap things up so they can play again, so he made it a habit to offer chops. Creatures of habit are all too common in poker, as I'm sure you know. Or maybe the other guy is a friend or something.

    What he should have done was offered a non-chop deal, like $370/$280. That's roughly what his 4:1 advantage comes out to. He has $250 guarananteed and about 4/5 of the chips in play, so 250 + 4/5(400 – 250) = 250 + 120 = 370. It gets him more money and is a fair deal for both of them. But most people don't think about it like this or don't trust themselves to do the math at the table (or don't want to come off as "misers," or whatever).
     
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  4. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Low suited connectors are not strong. In a situation where the stacks are tiny vs the blinds they are almost always getting the worst of the deal. Hero absolutely does not want a call here.

    21% equity vs a big pair
    40% equity vs junk - unsuited and unconnected two cards
    37% equity vs bigger suited connectors

    Hero's play seems to be a steal attempt. The speech while shoving could be somewhat effective vs villains who know enough to know that "its late, time to shove it all in" often means a monster hand.

    This hand is so late in the tournament and the tables so short that we are mostly playing the other players rather than playing the cards dealt to Hero. So it is really hard to evaluate Hero's strategy without a lot of villain information. Stealing 1.5 BB is totally worthwhile. But it depends on Hero having confidence that the villains will fold a lot to make up for Hero's worthless hand.

    Hero needs to have a laser focus on the BB and think he folds a lot of his range. BB is getting just less than 2-1 on a call (assuming SB) folds. The BB should be calling really light - it isn't as though things are going to get better with time. BB is blinded out in three orbits, nine hands.

    The chop is mathematically bad. Maybe there are other reasons why it happened, but my experience is many players don't have a clue.

    DrStrange
     
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  5. Mojo1312

    Mojo1312 Well-Known Member

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    Hero finished in 6th place.

    Both horrible actions IMO. Neither player had a strategy from what I could tell. I am not sure which move was worse. The all-in shove or the 50-50 chop.

    I was suprised by the shove, but I couldn't believe the offer to split the prize pool down the middle.

    Hard to fathom such mistakes considering the popularity of the game over the past decade.
     
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  6. Jimulacrum

    Jimulacrum Well-Known Member

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    Part of the popularity of the game, IMO, is due to the fact that any amateur with little to no card or math sense can memorize some easy starting hand requirements and learn basic board reading, and that's enough to outperform an average low-stakes tournament field pretty often. And someone who gambles wildly even has a middling chance if the tournament structure is fast enough.

    So when people get to the end and make bad plays or ridiculous deals, I'm not surprised at all.

    And shoving with 34s actually isn't always terrible three-handed with 9.5 BB versus 11 BB and 4.5 BB. BTW. Against weak-tight opponents (e.g., the type who play from memorized 9-handed starting requirements), it's almost a mandatory shove.
     
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  7. Mojo1312

    Mojo1312 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with your asessment on players and structure. I have always felt that the dynamics of a game is somewhat shaped by the stack sizes at the table. I am going to play a 10BB stack differently if the other players have 20 or 30BB's versus 10 and 5BB's.

    The button could have found an easy fold with 3/4 suited considering there is a player who needs to make a move here shortly.

    With such a huge disparity between second and third place money, why get fancy?
     
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  8. Jimulacrum

    Jimulacrum Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I'm personally not shoving 34s in that spot unless the other two players are totally clueless and super-nitty.

    But KXo or 9Ts? All day against most fairly weak shorthanded/heads-up players.
     
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  9. Mojo1312

    Mojo1312 Well-Known Member

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    Shameless brag. Took first place tonight. (16 players) Finished in second place four of the last seven weeks and bubbled once. Five for eight in the money.
     
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