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87s in middle position.

Discussion in 'Poker Strategy General' started by DrStrange, Jan 20, 2018.

  1. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    We are playing 1-2 live, nine handed. This hand happens about four hours into the session. There are some big winners and big losers, the game is turning into a "bum hunt" as the sharks circle the wounded losers. Even so, the mood is upbeat. Sometimes the losers fall into a pit of despair and doom but not tonight. Hope still burns bright.

    Cast of characters: (limited info for now, more as the cast thins down to the key players.

    SB is playing $250 on a $800 to $1,000 buy-in. This villain is a classic calling station. Business is booming for him and money is no object.

    BB has $150 on a $360 buy in. Old Man, Coffee in every sense. He is going to bleed slowly hoping for the poker gods to deliver him a winning hand.

    UTG is our wily LAG - the big stack at the table. He has $2,000++, winning chips faster than he can bother the stack them. This guy is normally a modest winning LAG but his variance is huge. Tonight everything is coming up roses.

    UTG+1 folds

    MP1 is Hero playing $700 on a $60 buy-in. Hero is "TAG" for this table but most folks would see him as slightly loose / slightly aggressive preflop and semi aggressive post flop.

    MP2 has $400 on a $400 buy in. This villain is evolving ( well devolving really ) from a semi tight good player into a loose, chip spewing buffer. It is a bit hard to read him at the moment even with more than a decade of time together at the table.

    CO is our old friend Crazy. Playing $350 on who knows how many buy ins. Let's say he is down $1,200. Hyper loose / often crazy aggressive. He is so bloody that his aggression is fading into calling station territory.

    Button has a newly bought $500 on a $1,000 buy in. Nominally the best player at the table when he has his "A" game. Tonight he is not playing well and it shows. Base line, he is a skilled LAG but as losses mount he is sliding towards TAG with bursts of stupid.

    The hand.

    Our wily LAG opens to $4 from UTG. A bit surprising he didn't straddle but this time he didn't. Villain has a solid betting tell. A min-raise like this means he holds a good hand but not a premium hand. Something in the top 30% of hands but not in the top 10%. For example - JTo, 44, ace-rag (suited or not), K2s, Q9o, 34s. He will call a stiff pre-flop raise.

    Action is on Hero holding :8d: :7d:. Fold, call or raise? If raising, how much? Note that Hero is likely to get multiple calls if he raises.

    DrStrange
     
    #1
  2. chippy mcchiperson

    chippy mcchiperson Well-Known Member

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    I raise to $20. Not to get utg to fold, but for info. If we get 4-bet by someone we can range their hand pretty easily, and we might get some other people with marginal starting hands to fold pre. We have position against utg, who we want to be going up against.
     
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  3. slisk250

    slisk250 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with a raise to 20 and the notes by Chippy. I really like playing these cards in this spot. You will either bomb the flop or be gone. Something tells me you will like the flop or this would not be a strategy thread post :)
     
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  4. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Sometimes things go sideways. However the flop is somewhat better for hero than :ah :kc :qh
     
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  5. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    I'm not nearly as skilled as most and as a result I just call in this case. I'm probably playing the hand as a hit or miss and may as well play it as cheaply as possible because the reality is the board isn't going to hit this hand often. Given that you're going to get multiple callers on a raise, you're going to have to hit it REALLY hard to have the winner. If you can get to heads up and think you can get UTG off the hand by 3-betting then C-betting on most any board after the flop, have at it. Otherwise I'm just calling for cheap and hoping to flop a monster.
     
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  6. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Here is my thinking -
    Hero is hunting the losing players just like three or so other players. Not that I would turn down Crafty's chips, but he is not my target tonight.
    Suited connectors are best suited to a high SPR situation. Hero doesn't want to be playing a low SPR pot with eight high.
    There isn't much fold equity ever vs the calling stations but the bigger the preflop pot the weaker the fold equity.
    Almost no one is going to 4-bet hero light unless they are 5-bet shoving out of frustration.

    So Hero elects to flat the $4. We end up with a four way pot with $18.

    The contenders for this pot are:
    SB is playing $250 on a $800 to $1,000 buy-in. This villain is a classic calling station. Business is booming for him and money is no object. SB is really sticky, he could stack off on top pair / no kicker perhaps even middle pair / good kicker.

    UTG is our wily LAG - the big stack at the table. He has $2,000++, winning chips faster than he can bother the stack them. This guy is normally a modest winning LAG but his variance is huge. Tonight everything is coming up roses. Wily will overpay for draws. He hates to be bluffed, but it is possible. UTG has betting tells - sizes larger with better hands and sizes smaller as blocking.

    Hero - that is me

    CO is our old friend Crazy. Playing $350 on who knows how many buy ins. Let's say he is down $1,200. Hyper loose / often crazy aggressive. He is so bloody that his aggression is fading into calling station territory. There is something going on with this villain at the moment, I can't tell if he has a monster hand, is texting about a planned fishing trip, needs to go to the men's room or wants a bite to eat / a drink refill. All I can say is he feels fully energetic unlike the last hour or so.

    The flop:
    :9d: :5s: :4d: Pot is $18

    SB checks. Crafty bets $12.

    Action on Hero. Fold, call or raise?
     
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  7. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    ICK - I don't see an edit button. That should be a :5s: not a diamond
     
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  8. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Really it is the five of spades no matter what the forum software wants to make of it.
     
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  9. chippy mcchiperson

    chippy mcchiperson Well-Known Member

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    What are you repping if you raise here? I think four handed a call is your best option. Maybe if you get squeezed you can back raise, which is a very strong line, but the villains youre describing don't seem to be the folding type, so probably not the best idea.
     
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  10. slisk250

    slisk250 Well-Known Member

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    call, you have a hell of a draw developing. No need to bloat the pot as they are probably coming along anyway.
     
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  11. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    A lot depends on Crazy. I'd be worried that if I raise here, he's going to shove all in and you're going to be force to call with that draw and expect to be in a coin flip. If you think you can get in a raise and all the rest of the field will just call, it might be worth it to see if you can get a free river card if you miss on the turn. Of course taking that line may in effect turn your hand face up ...
     
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  12. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Hero's hand would benefit from some fold equity. That seems like a stretch at this moment with this cast of villains. Hero has a nice chunk of equity without getting folds (we hope), so lets just call and go for the ride.

    Hero calls $12, Crazy calls and our calling station in the small blind folds.

    Three players to see the turn. $52 in the pot.

    The turn is: < :9d :5s :4d > :9c [ nine of diamonds, five of spades, four of diamonds and now the nine of clubs in case the forum software changes my images ]

    Crafty bets $20. Action is on Hero, fold - call - raise? If raising how much and why.

    Special note: Crazy is already standing with his hand ready to muck and go to the bathroom. He rarely has been known to be faking but he is dancing the jig we all know so well. No guarantees though.
     
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  13. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Really it is the five of spades - no idea why the forum software is making the change nor why I can not edit my own postings
     
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  14. chippy mcchiperson

    chippy mcchiperson Well-Known Member

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    In theory this is a better card for our range. I'd make it $55 and plan on bombing most rivers.
     
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  15. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    This is where I usually make a big mistake. I’ll sit back and look forward to hearing from others.
     
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  16. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Everyone's opinion is helpful - especially in a spot where a bluff is one of the options.
     
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  17. slisk250

    slisk250 Well-Known Member

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    It's a call for me. If the villain doesn't have a 9, a smooth call here can put up a red flag for them. If they do have one, they could easily put you on the flush draw.
     
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  18. snooptodd

    snooptodd Well-Known Member

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    Okay, I'll play. My thinking is that calling just screams "I have a flush draw!" ... Either that or slow-played AA or KK, but my sense is that no one is actually going to think that Hero has that hand, because I'm betting that Hero has flat called an opening raise with those premium hands almost zero times in this cast of characters.

    A raise could signal a very strong hand that doesn't want to get outdrawn, at least trips, possibly a boat. I'm with chippy, though I probably make it $60.

    That said, this is with hours of thought on the hand. Played in the moment, I probably play it passively and just call.
     
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  19. DrStrange

    DrStrange Creativity Alliance
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    Hero decides to put the table to a test, a two barrel bluff line if needed.

    Hero raises to $65, that is a $45 raise into a $92 pot from Crafty's point of view. I wondered if people would say the raise is too small, but given the other options offered were lower I guess it is ok. Monday morning QB in me wishes the raise had been $75.

    For what it is worth, Hero took the $20 bet into a $52 pot as blocking or probing . . .

    As suspected, crazy folds as soon as Hero says raise and dashed off to the bathroom.

    Craft snap calls.

    The river will be heads up with $182 in the pot.

    The river < :9d 5 of spades :4d > :9c :3h

    Crafty checks, action on Hero. Should Hero surrender or bet? If betting how much?

    How do you range Crafty?

    DrStrange
     
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  20. chippy mcchiperson

    chippy mcchiperson Well-Known Member

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    Is crafty capable of folding an overpair? He could also have any pair 5s through 8s, which are virtually the same thing. Either you have a 9 or you don't. If he's capable of folding these hands I bet $150. If not I just check behind.
     
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