[shanghai_sparky]

Great, two of mine hve a first round match.

[BigKyle]

The best matchups are in the diamonds bracket. I think Farha-Doyle, Greenstein-Lederer, and Negreanu-Mizrachi may be three of the five best matches overall. Gowen-Tilly should be fun for other reasons. Ferguson-Juanda is an excellent first round match.

I am going to go way out on a limb and say the Scott Clements-Kenny Tran winner wins it all.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by ontheuptick

I wonder who made those odds? IMO, some of them appear to be way off.

For instance, I think Doyle's name is that high on pure "name" factor alone. Gus Hanson seems a little to high.

Andy Bloch and Esfandiari at 55 to 1 is a joke. Those two (especially Bloch) are FAR better than many of those with lighter odds above them. Seriously, Jerry Yang, Hachem, Moneymaker, those guys aren't as good as Esfandiari and Bloch.

if we imagine the odds are a list of what someone thinks is actually a fair market, then we can look at it like this:

you have to win 6 matches to win the tournament. the structure is single elimination, relatively shallow stacks and fast blinds. it seems that it's a common assumption that most matches are, at MOST, 60/40 favorites (let's say ivey v the online qualifier), but more likely they average out to 55/45s (say ferguson v a lesser pro).

if you're god, and you're 60/40 in each of your matches, then your chance of winning are:
=.6^6 = about 21:1

since none of these players are god, as far as i can tell, i'd estimate that 55/45 is more appropriate.
=.55^6 = 36:1

if you use that number as the cutoff for "the favorites", the list looks ok to me.

[ontheuptick]

I wasn't saying that the odds on the whole list were wrong, I simply think that some of the "ranks" of the players are screwed up. A few of the players down low on the list I think are much better players than the odds system is giving them credit for. Also, a few people I think are higher than they should be, IMO (Jonathon Little being one of them, to name an example).

Just curious for all - given those odds, what 2-3 players would you place your money on with the lines given?

I think Esfandiari, Bloch, and Chad Brown are getting great odds. I'd also probably put money on Townsend given the odds as well.

Originally Posted by jojobinks

if we imagine the odds are a list of what someone thinks is actually a fair market, then we can look at it like this:

you have to win 6 matches to win the tournament. the structure is single elimination, relatively shallow stacks and fast blinds. it seems that it's a common assumption that most matches are, at MOST, 60/40 favorites (let's say ivey v the online qualifier), but more likely they average out to 55/45s (say ferguson v a lesser pro).

if you're god, and you're 60/40 in each of your matches, then your chance of winning are:
=.6^6 = about 21:1

since none of these players are god, as far as i can tell, i'd estimate that 55/45 is more appropriate.
=.55^6 = 36:1

if you use that number as the cutoff for "the favorites", the list looks ok to me.

[jojobinks]

kenny tran, andy bloch and antonio esfandiari.

since i think this is basically a flipament, i just go for the best players with the longest odds.

[shanghai_sparky]

Here is the link for a printable bracket:

http://www.cardplayer.com/images/tou.../bracket08.gif

[shanghai_sparky]

First blood drawn:
Wasicka and Chad Brown gone.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fri Feb 29 12:01:00 PST 2008
All In Again
Freddy Deeb vs. Paul Wasicka

On a board of J-8-5-8, Paul Wasicka moves all in and Freddy Deeb makes the call. Wasicka has pocket tens and is behind to Deeb's A-J. The river is another jack and the defending champion is eliminated.

One thing for sure is that we will have an all new final table this year.

How is everyone's bracket looking so far?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fri Feb 29 11:55:00 PST 2008
Down to 63
All in and call at one of the outer tables.

Cunningham vs. Brown

Allen Cunningham just made a flush to knock out last year's runner-up finisher Chad Brown.

Brown and Rousso were sitting back-to-back, and with his elimination, there is no chance for a Brown vs. Rousso elite eight match-up. Rousso is currently focused on her match with Antonio Esfandiari, and didn't flinch when her fiance busted behind her.

[shanghai_sparky]

First section done.
Players eliminated:
Antonio Esfandiari
Shannon Elizabeth
Todd Brunson
Tom Kelly
Ted Forrest
Chad Brown
J-R Bellande
Paul Wasica

[shanghai_sparky]

Players still in the match:

Originally Posted by jojobinks

2. Antonius, Patrik
4. Benyamine, David
5. Bloch, Andy
7. Brunson, Doyle
9. Chan, Johnny
10. Cheadle, Don
11. Clements, Scott
12. Cloutier, T.J.
13. Cunningham, Allen
14. Deeb, Freddy
15. Duke, Annie
16. Dwan, Tom
17. Edler, Bill
22. Ferguson, Chris
23. Fischman, Scott
25. Gold, Jamie
26. Gowen, Clonie
27. Greenstein, Barry
28. Grizzle, Sam
29. Hachem, Joe
30. Hansen, Gus
32. Hellmuth, Phil
33. Hershiser, Orel
34. Ivey, Phil
35. Juanda, John
36. Kaplan, Gabe
38. Laak, Phil
40. Lindgren, Erick
41. Little, Jonathan
42. Matusow, Mike
43. Mizrachi, Michael
44. Moneymaker, Chris
46. Nikzad, Hooman
47. Nguyen, Scotty
49. Raymer, Greg
50. Rousso, Vanessa
51. Schneider, Tom
52. Schreiber, Daniel
53. Seed, Huck
54. Seidel, Erik
55. Singer, David
56. Smith, Gavin
58. Townsend, Brian
59. Tran, J.C.
60. Tran, Kenny
62. Williams, David
63. Yang, Jerry
64. Kunze, Alisha

[jojobinks]

e-dog beat elezra
benyamine bests harman
barryg crushes the professor
aba bad beats the dragon
gowan blunders into a win v j-tilla (someone had to win)
grinder takes out kid poker
seed "kramers" costanza
dolly cleans up against farha
andy blochs shannon e
lady maverick disappears the magician
grizzle finishes bellande

i'm tired of typing now.

also, durrrrr is going to whamboozle hellmuth tonight. man it's gonna be sweet.