[AceDeuceNoUse]

I had to listen to Gabe's explanation 4 or 5 times before I 'sorta' understood what the 'insurance' deal was between Phil and Eli. Can someone explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old?

I was rooting for Baxter ('ray for the amateurs) but he made a questionable push at the worst possible time. Hope he was comped that nice cigar.

Nice to finally see Sammy back in the lineup. Sammy, Daniel and Eli really make the show for me.

I think this was the first time a dealer (one of the regulars with the spiked blond hair and hand jewelry) was scolded for mentioning a rule with which none of the players wanted to comply (something about show one, show both, I think).

Anyone else think there was not as much waitress coverage as in previous ep's? Maybe because there was plenty of table action this time.

[ipgyst]

I forget the exact numbers, but let's say Phil is a 4-1 favorite to win $90,000. Without insurance, Phil loses $90,000 1 time in 5 and he wins $90,000 4 times in 5.

Phil got insurance to "protect" his hand, which was a favorite. Eli offers him insurance at less than 4-1 (which is how Eli makes money on insurance over the long haul), let's say 3-1, which comes to $30,000. Now, when Phil loses $90,000 (1 time in 5), Eli pays him the $90,000. When Phil wins the $90,000 (4 times in 5), he owes Eli $30,000 of it.

If you do the math, you can see that if Eli offers insurance of 4-1, it's a break-even proposition for everybody involved. Since he's offering 3-1, however, Eli wins $30,000 4 times in 5 and pays $90,000 1 time in 5 which gives him a positive expectation on the proposition. If Eli offered better odds, say 5-1, Eli would have a negative expectation.

[cdnmoose]

That episode was the best episode yet. I laughed my head off so many times.

The insurance thing is basically Helmouth's way of saying, "I pwned you again. You suck but since I am such a dominating favourite and luck is involved, you probably will suck me out."

For more on Phil and insurance, see WSOP 2007 ep7. Phil makes final table and Phil Ivey is watching in the stands. Ivey keeps giving Helmouth insurance at horrible odds and by the end, Helmouth is in so deep to Ivey that he has to finish 5th or better, just to get ahead of what he owes Ivey.

I won't give the rest away. It's an awesome episode too.

[ipgyst]

Good points.

Also consider that Phil takes horrible odds on his insurance in a heartbeat like he is some sort of donk, which we know he is not. I think he does it so he can get more camera time. I don't think there is another explanation for it.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by ipgyst

I don't think there is another explanation for it.

how about he can't do poker math? or are you suggesting that the biggest ego in poker pretends to be dumb at poker math for meta-game reasons...?

[ipgyst]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

how about he can't do poker math? or are you suggesting that the biggest ego in poker pretends to be dumb at poker math for meta-game reasons...?

He crashes racecars for meta-game reasons.
He shows up late (sometimes with fanfare) for meta-game reasons.
He berates other players' in-game decisions for meta-game reasons.

So yes, I am suggesting that it is possible that the Poker Brat takes these insurance propositions for meta-game reasons. I don't watch all the poker TV that is out there, but I've never seen anybody insure a hand once. Except Phil, who I've now seen on both WSOP and HSP insuring hands. The camera is on him, the announcers are talking about him, and I don't think he could be happier.

It is possible that Phil fails to understand the math behind insurance, but I think the meta-game stuff is more likely.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by ipgyst

He crashes racecars for meta-game reasons.
He shows up late (sometimes with fanfare) for meta-game reasons.
He berates other players' in-game decisions for meta-game reasons.

So yes, I am suggesting that it is possible that the Poker Brat takes these insurance propositions for meta-game reasons. I don't watch all the poker TV that is out there, but I've never seen anybody insure a hand once. Except Phil, who I've now seen on both WSOP and HSP insuring hands. The camera is on him, the announcers are talking about him, and I don't think he could be happier.

It is possible that Phil fails to understand the math behind insurance, but I think the meta-game stuff is more likely.

i agree he takes insurance to be on camera more often. i don't agree that he takes bad odds for any reason other than he's unaware of what a donk he is.

the fact of the matter is that he had no idea what sort of favorite he was the other night. he had to ask around the table to figure it out. at the wsop ivey consistently gave him a bad price as well. i don't believe that hellmuth wants to look like a gambling dummy on tv...i think he just doesn't know any better.

[TheMightyJim2k]

this just goes to show that tournament poker, and the game of poker are two entirely different things. And I'm not downing tourneys at all, but they require a very different skill set. Not knowing the basic math in a cash game is actually a pretty big whole in your game, and you really can't afford to not understand all of the basic situations.

But in a tournament your chips have value, and your tournament equity doesn't always translate equally (ie the more chips you have the less they are worth). I think Phil is a great tourney player, but from all accounts by the high limit players he is a semi-fish in a cash game.

He asks for insurance because he likes the attention, and because he does some stupid things. He doesn't need insurance since he isn't playing out of his bankroll (really the only logical reason for taking it).

I have to say that this season of HSP has been a little dissappointing. Noone seems to be taking the game as seriously, and the hands are taking so long we aren't getting much action.

oh well.

[ipgyst]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

I have to say that this season of HSP has been a little dissappointing.

Agreed. WAY too much talking, especially among players who aren't in the hand.

Edit - Maybe the big buy-in day (half a mil, or one mil, can't remember which) will lift the quality of the show.

[Button Potato]

Regardless - it's still the best poker on TV.