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08-10-2005, 01:59 PM
| | HIJACKED ACCOUNT? BANNED | | Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Canada
Posts: 475
Chips: 446
| | | What Would You Do?
Blinds are 150/300 at a 5 person table.
I have Ace  Jack in the big blind position.
First to act folds, second to act is our chip leader who has been raising 75% of all pots before the flop and winning, he goes all in for about 6 grand.
Folds around to me...I am about 3rd at the table in chips, but still about 1/3 of what the leader has. Big blind off $300 already committed.
What would you do?
Seems like an easy decision to me but I want some other opinions. |
08-10-2005, 02:35 PM
| | On the Bubble | | Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Position 6 with my iPod on
Posts: 78
Chips: 78
| | | I'm asuming this is a home game and you feel he's not that good.
If you think he's on a steal: All In
If you dont Know: Fold
If you think he has something: Fold
Again, this is not knowing of those little details like payout structures, playing styles, amount of time youve been playing in this game, what the hand range that UTG would play.
basically knowing nothing.
I say fold it and find a better game. |
08-10-2005, 02:40 PM
|  | Poker Nerd (and Admin) | | Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: bottom pair and a flush draw Age: 35
Posts: 10,362
Chips: 15,946
| | | need more specific info. how does the payout work? what're the other stacks? by how much are you the best player there?
i need a lot of evidence in my favor to call off all my chips here. AJs isn't exactly a monster. |
08-10-2005, 02:50 PM
|  | Big Stack | | Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: the wonder of it all Age: 34
Posts: 1,855
Chips: 7,798
| | Quote: |
Originally Posted by jojobinks need more specific info. how does the payout work? what're the other stacks? by how much are you the best player there?
i need a lot of evidence in my favor to call off all my chips here. AJs isn't exactly a monster. | Exactly. This is a pretty easy laydown given the lack of information. |
08-10-2005, 03:06 PM
| | HIJACKED ACCOUNT? BANNED | | Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Canada
Posts: 475
Chips: 446
| | | Sorry, should have given more info.
This was a $60 buy-in tornament, playing for about two and a half hours, still have 4 tables and 22 people left out of 28. Top 6 get prizes. Blinds double every half hour
My read is that he has a small pocket pair. He had shown a few small pocket pairs before after everyone folded to him in similar situations. Everytime he has had a bigger hand (Ace/King etc) he has slowed played it and gotten paid off 90% of the time. But when he comes in big he has had a pocket pair each time (sixes and eights the two times he showed out of four hands he did it on).
As far as being the best player there, I know I am the best player at my particular table. But I also know Ace/Jack suited isn't a monster, but would look really nice against a lower pocket pair.
Also for more info, a few hands prior he called an all in with a Queen/Six suited, so he seems to be free with his chips (He won that hand too BTW, against Ace/Ten). Extremely lucky so far for him. He became chip leader by pure luck, having a bigger kicker or catching what he needed on the river many times. Personally, I rank him as the 2nd worst player out of the 5 of us at the table.
I thought about it for a minute before making my decision. He seemed very uncomfortable during the wait as I tried to read him more.
Like I said, basically a chip leader who likes to put in big bets to steal the blinds, bullying people out, and someone I view to have little skill.
So I called......and will tell you what he had later :cool:  |
08-10-2005, 03:46 PM
|  | Final Table | | Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Madtown, WI Age: 34
Posts: 566
Chips: 594
| | | Related question I have a problem with....
Using the above example and the limited info provided.... assume the hero (BB) has T2000 after posting the T300 blind. The big stack raises all in, effectively making the hero call T2000 into a T2750 pot.
How do you calc the odds on that? What price are you getting? If you have AJ against a smaller pair your probably a what, 47/53 dog going in?
So what odds do you need to call? I have a problem converting the odds...
Anyway, based on these facts/assumptions:
1. Villian has a small PP
2. Hero's M is under 5
3. (need the odds here, but I think he's getting the proper odds)
Isn't this close to a call? He needs to double up... I know it's better to be raising all in rather than calling but his stack situation is getting low. |
08-10-2005, 04:19 PM
| | In the Money | | Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 368
Chips: 422
| | If you read him correctly and are up against a small pair you only have 48-51% chance to win depending on what pair he's holding. What if you're wrong and he's got AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ or JJ etc? Then you're in big trouble! If you were really low on chips and thought he was being the bully/stealing, this might be the time to go with your gut and go all-in. If not, you need to ask your self if it is worth risking perhaps your whole stack at that point or if you should wait for a less risky opportunity.  |
08-10-2005, 04:30 PM
|  | Chip and a Chair | | Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Washington Street
Posts: 8
Chips: 6
| | | With your M at 5, this calibre of hand heads up, a 50/50 chance to double up at this phase of the game w/ a suspected loose stack who is due to NOT be catching cards... I mean, really, how soon are your blinds making the next jump?
Clearly a CY in my book even if you do get drawn out. (it is 50/50 after all)
maybe I'm a loose stack? |
08-10-2005, 04:42 PM
| | In the Money | | Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 368
Chips: 422
| | Quote: |
Originally Posted by areyouin Clearly a CY in my book even if you do get drawn out. (it is 50/50 after all) | Well, it could be 50/50 (AJs vs. 33) but it could also be...
AJs vs. AKs = 29% chance to win
AJs vs. AK = 31% chance to win
AJs vs. AQs = 29% chance to win
AJs vs. AQ = 31% chance to win
AJs vs. AA = 13% chance to win
AJs vs. KK = 32% chance to win
AJs vs. QQ = 32% chance to win
AJs vs. JJ = 35% chance to win
AJs vs. TT = 46% chance to win
...in which case he would be making a bad call |
08-10-2005, 05:00 PM
| | HIJACKED ACCOUNT? BANNED | | Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Canada
Posts: 475
Chips: 446
| | Ok so here is what happened...
I read the guy all wrong, he didn't have a pocket pair, he was sitting on Ace  Queen
Flop gave us both aces, but not my jack and no hearts.
Turn was a jack 
And of course, I sink on the river when a queen hits.
I wasn't (and still really am not) upset I made the call. I thought I had a read, had a fairly decent hand, and didn't really want to let him take my big blind which was about 1/5 of my stack without doing something. Plus it was the first hand of any decency I have caught all night besides pocket kings which I got no action off of.
It was a wild ride of emotions, went from thinking I knew what he had, to cursing myself when I saw his hand, to happy as hell post turn, to feeling like crap again after the river.
Looking back I know I probably should have folded, but at that time I couldn't do it. Oh well, sh*t happens. At least I had fun!  |  | |
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