[cssamerican]

This article by Clonie Gowen discuss a simple way of approximating your odds of making your hand based on your outs.

Using her method on a hand like a flush draw.
After Flop = (9 Outs)*(2 Cards to go)*2= Approx 36% chance of making your hand.
After Turn = (9 Outs)*(1 Cards to go)*2= Approx 18% chance of making your hand.

This method seems much easier to compute on the fly than the method explained in Dan Harrington's book, which is:
After Flop and Turn = (37 non-outs) to (9 Outs) = Approx 4 to 1, which is Approx 25%

My question is who's method is better. According to Clonie's way of figuring odds I would call a 4 to 1 pot odds with a flush draw post flop without any hesitation. However, I would fold to 4 to 1 pot odds after the turn without much thinking. But using Dan's method I would agonize on both calls but I would probably still have call due to the implied odds.

Just as a sidenote, you could apply Clonie's simple method to pretty much get Dan's figures by using this formula:
After Flop and Turn = (9 Outs)*2+(9 Outs)= Approx 27% chance of making your hand.

I am just curious what everyone' opinion on this is.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Phil Gordon talks about the same approximation. Multiply your outs * 4 and that gives you your percentage when there are 2 cards to come. Multiply by 2 with one card to come, as you said. It seems to be good enough to use as an approximation. In most cases, you don't need to know the numbers down to 2 decimals anyway, so whatever makes it easier for you.

It's trickier in no limit because of implied odds. Also, to correct what you said, if you're getting 4 to 1 after the turn on a flush draw, you do have the correct odds to call without even considering implied odds. After the flop is a little different. Technically, you are 2 to 1 against, not 4-1, hitting your flush draw in the next 2 cards. However, if you are playing an aware opponent in no limit, you can't guarantee you'll get to see the river for the correct odds. So in no limit, you can almost treat the turn like the river. If you're getting 4 to 1 to see the turn, you're getting correct odds. Less than 4-1 and you have to start considering implied odds and all sorts of other things like chip stacks, etc.

[jojobinks]

the difference is between calculating and understanding.

harrington's method is one that takes longer, but leads to understanding.
gowan/gordon's is a shortcut that doesn't help a beginner to understand why.

in the heat of battle, i use the gordon method too.

[pie taster]

Here's a good example of what happened to me in the Chip Talk Tourney last night.

I have 76 clubs on the button and limp in.

Flop comes 872.. with two clubs.. So i've hit mid pair with a flush draw... It gets checked to me so I bet $200. Player in Early Position (was it conrad?), check raises me $400 to make it $600 to go..

So now I'm looking at $400 bet for about $1000 pot. I call the bet thinking that he's got something and with the implied odds, if I hit the flush I can break him (maybe I should have tossed it here).

Turn comes Ace of hearts.. Player in Early Position bets $700 K, which would put me all in (I had 700). Pot is at 2,100K. I figure I'm behind with either a set or two pair.

I have mid pair and a flush draw, so I figure the pot is laying me 3:1 but my flush draw is laying me 4:1. So I toss it. He flashes a set of 8's.

I live on.. the only thing I wish I did different was I wished I checked on the flop, I could have saved $600 in chips!

[cssamerican]

Originally Posted by Spaceman Spiff

Also, to correct what you said, if you're getting 4 to 1 after the turn on a flush draw, you do have the correct odds to call without even considering implied odds.

Then maybe I am not understanding something properly. So please correct me if that is the case.
There is 750 in the pot and it cost me 250 to call. The pot odds are then 4 to 1. Making my flush draw also has 4 to 1 odds.
This means in 4 games I call the 250, and one of those games I win 1000. This seems like an even bet, so why would you want to call an even bet? My common sense and everything I read about pot odds says that you want to call bets when you have favorable pot odds.

[BaconBoy]

Knowing the percentage of time you are going to make your hand in one or two cards is just part of the equation.

I use the 2%x2 method for complex situations where I have several types of "outs" to calculate at once, IE an open-ended straight draw AND pairing my high card (8+3=11). With the more common situations like flush draws, I have the exact number memorized.

Either way, knowing how often your hand will hit is just half of the problem...that's where you are going to need to convert the percentage into a ratio (IE, 5-1) so that you can contrast that with the bet/pot ratio ($10 bet into a $50 pot, etc.).

There are times when something like a gutshot four-outer justifies a call because the pot is so big in comparison to the amount it takes to stay in the hand. This type of situation is common when you have a hand with numerous callers and/or raises.

You may only have an 8% chance of winning the hand....but if the bet is $10 and there is already $150 in the pot, you have the right odds to call.

Similarly, you could have a hand like a straight flush draw that has a much better chance of hitting....but there is so little money to be won in comparison to the bet that you should not call. This can happen in a very tight game with few caller/raises....or in a situation where someone goes all in in NL.

There could be $100 in the pot, but if someone raises $300 you are getting pretty cruddy odds for a drawing hand - not even 2:1. At that point, you can only call if you think you are ahead.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by cssamerican

Then maybe I am not understanding something properly. So please correct me if that is the case.
There is 750 in the pot and it cost me 250 to call. The pot odds are then 4 to 1. Making my flush draw also has 4 to 1 odds.
This means in 4 games I call the 250, and one of those games I win 1000. This seems like an even bet, so why would you want to call an even bet? My common sense and everything I read about pot odds says that you want to call bets when you have favorable pot odds.

if the pot's 750 and it costs you 250, you're only getting 3-1.

pay 250 to win 750.

[yeltzen]

I've basically just memorized common odds situations and I just go from there. You see the same situations over and over again in Hold'em so it's easy just to remember 4 or 5 odds.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

if the pot's 750 and it costs you 250, you're only getting 3-1.

pay 250 to win 750.

That's right. To follow out the odds, say you made this play 5 times. 4 of those 5 times you would miss your draw and that would cost you 1,000. The one time you hit, you'd win 750. That's bad.

Generally, breakeven bets are OK because you can also factor in implied odds. For instance, say you hit your flush on the turn and it also gives your opponent trips (or whatever other kind of second best hand). You're more than likely going to win more than the 750 and very possibly even bust him. Of course, the flush card could kill all action also and you won't win any more.

If your flush misses, you have to recalculate everything again for the river and see if the price is right again.

This is what took me a long time to learn. It doesn't matter how much you have "invested" in the pot. Once it's in the pot, it's gone. All that matters then is if you are getting the right price to pay more to win what the pot currently has.

[Kalimba]

Originally Posted by cssamerican

...
This method seems much easier to compute on the fly than the method explained in Dan Harrington's book, which is:
After Flop and Turn = (37 non-outs) to (9 Outs) = Approx 4 to 1, which is Approx 25%
...

In this case the chance of making your hand is actually around 20%, which is much closer to the % as estimated by Clonie Gowan's method.