[yeltzen]

You're right that A10 is a good hand to push when you're a small stack, but I think you're just missing the point of the raise in front of you. A10 is a great small stack hand to push with as long as you're the first one in. As soon as someone raises in front of you, you have to muck... you're going to get called and 9/10 times you're going to be dominated.

[yeltzen]

Originally Posted by Murf

I highly doubt my 900 would have been able to bluff anyone out. Within the next few hands, the blinds would have gone up, and my raise would have only been slightly more than the big blind.

You can doubt all you want, but the point is if you're the first one in, there's at least SOME possibility that you could just steal the blinds and antes... in this situation there is absolutely NO possibility of that happening.

[Murf]

If I pushed with my 900 along with the blinds (200/400 most likely), the pot is 1500 (assuming also that there are no limpers, which is highly unlikely) the big blind is getting atleast 3:1 to call, and against an obviously desperate short stack, how bad would your hand have to be not to call that?

[SpaceMonkey]

Originally Posted by Murf

If I pushed with my 900 along with the blinds (200/400 most likely), the pot is 1500 (assuming also that there are no limpers, which is highly unlikely) the big blind is getting atleast 3:1 to call, and against an obviously desperate short stack, how bad would your hand have to be not to call that?

First, you wait until you can be the first one in the pot.

Second, you'd be surprised how many people would fold in the BB online in that spot.

[VARoadstter]

Was looking for which Yeltzen post to quote, but gave up. He's right in every one of them. A few responses to his posts offer some feeble "reasons" to justify the opposite but facts are facts. If you push all in with AT here you are simply saying that you give up and are tired of playing anymore. Avoid the temptation to commit suicide at the table.

[yeltzen]

I gotta tell ya, it's hard being right all the time!!

[SpeakEasy]

I’ll try this again. Yeltsin is just mathematically wrong and has a bad read on raiser’s possible hands. I’m shocked so many good players agree with him. The “wait for a better situation” advice is far outweighed by the price BB is getting here. The price is overwhelming for a push, and I stand by my original recommendation:

Originally Posted by Murf

175 players left, top 40 pay. I've got 1300, blinds are $100/$200, I'm in BB. Two limpers, one raise to $600 total. I was just moved to the table, no reads, AT

Originally Posted by Murf

Within the next few hands, the blinds would have gone up, and my raise would have only been slightly more than the big blind.

Facts and my analysis:

1. Money left in stack -- BB has posted $200, so he has $1100 left in his stack after posting.

2. In the money? -- We are not on the bubble, so there is no imminent money consideration here. BB needs to build up his stack by a considerable amount to make the money.

3. Pot size -- After limpers and raise and action back to BB, the pot is $1300 (100(SB) + 200(BB) + 200(limp) + 200(limp) + 600(raise)).

4. Range of hands by raiser -- The initial range of hands that raiser may have is large, but probably does not include any of the premium hands that BB would be concerned about. This being an internet freeroll, raiser could generally have any PP, any Axo (down to maybe A9o) any Axs, suited connectors down to 87s, and one-gap (and maybe 2-gap??) suited connectors. However, there is nothing to indicate that the raiser’s hand dominates BB’s hand. In fact, his raise to only $600 (and not to something like $1000 or more after two limpers) suggests that he does NOT have a big hand that he is trying to protect. Therefore, I would rule out AA through TT, AK and AQ. The only hand I might be concerned about is AJ for the raiser, and possibly a limp-re-raise by the first limper with AA or KK (if he has shown any ability to be clever, which is not indicated in the post).

5. Odds to call -- Short-stack considerations aside for a moment, BB is getting great odds to call -- 3+ to 1 on a call ($400 cost to call, with a pot of $1300).

6. The folding option -- If BB folds, BB will post $100 next hand and be down to $1000. Before his next BB, the blinds will raise to 150/300 or (200/400?). This leaves him with virtually no folding equity. Any all-in by BB after the blinds go up is simply a standard raise (or less if the BB is 400) and will be called by a wide range of hands from a wide range of stack sizes. Further, an all-in by this short of a stack always reeks of desperation, even if he does catch a monster. With limpers before a BB all-in raise during a later hand, BB is virtually guaranteed one call, and quite possibly multiple calls. He needs a big PP or lots of luck to survive more than one more orbit.

7. Call vs. raise options -- An all-in re-raise by BB is likely to drive out the limpers and get this hand heads-up with original raiser (unless the first limper was creative with AA or KK). A call only by BB leaves only $700 in his stack. A flat call is a bad play because it lets the limpers in at a cheap price, and after that there is no way that all three other players are folding a $2500 pot for $700 more. Also, calling then folding, leaving only $700 with the blinds going up, is the Dead Zone for BB. Its either fold or all-in during this hand, regardless of whether its PF or on the flop.

Decision: Great odds to call (3+ to 1). I’m not concerned that original raiser has me dominated (except maybe AJ, and the price is even right for a call against AJ, explained below). If raiser has an underpair to BB’s overcards, then BB is getting WAY MORE than the 1 to 1 odds he needs to make this call in a heartbeat. Flat call of $400 PF here could be disastrous, because both of the limpers are likely going to call, and I don’t want AT in a 4-way pot. BB needs significant luck to survive more than one orbit because of the rising blinds. 3+ to 1 odds on a call alone dictates that he play this hand, and BB should go all-in to get it heads up against the original raiser. I would assume that I am at least about 50-50 or better, and the price is definitely right to go all-in. I would not do the “stop-and-go” here, because a flat call PF will bring in the two limpers, and there is no way that all 3 players are going to fold on the flop for $700 more when the pot is $2500.

Here’s the Yeltsin advice that I am shocked so many agree with:

Originally Posted by yeltzen

In hindsight it was right, but at the time I don't think it was the right move at all. You basically are praying that the guy who raised (who you know is more than likely to call you since you're raising slightly more than the minimum) has something other than AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AK, AQ, or AJ. Even 99-77 has you beat. The only likely hands (even though this is online) you beat are KQ, KJ, K10, and QJ. In the end you had them beat, but A10 has so many hands that beat it that I couldn't put my chips in behind a raise.

Crucial flaws in this advice:

1. There’s no praying needed at all. There is no attempt here to actually read the raiser’s possible hands. Would a reasonable player only raise $400 with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, or AQ? If so, then he’s a horrible player. With only a $400 raise, he’s giving the BB 3.25 to 1 on his call, who then gives the first limper 4.25 to 1 odds to call, who then gives the second limper almost 6 to 1 odds on his call. My read of the raiser’s range of hands excludes all of the premium hands, based his small raise compared to the pot that he’s creating. If I have one of the premium hands in raiser’s position, I don’t want a multi-way pot and I’m making it at least 1200 to go.

2. Its not simply a comparison of what possible hands have you “beat” (i.e. “66 beats AT” or “AT only beats KQ, KJ”, etc.). This game is all about betting and numbers, not bare starting-hand comparisons. If you fold a nearly 50-50 situation when you are getting 3+ to 1 on the call, then you are playing bad poker, plain and simple. AT is a slight underdog to 99 through 22 (47% to 53% or so), but if BB is getting 3+ to 1 on a call, and cannot fold after this call because he only has a small amount left, then the only mathematically correct decision is to push. BB could only call and then fold in this situation if he had a much bigger stack.

Originally Posted by yeltzen

As soon as someone raises in front of you, you have to muck... you're going to get called and 9/10 times you're going to be dominated.

3. Don't play scared! Make the correct decision each and every time you act. The BB is not concerned that he is getting called -- he almost certainly is. AT vs. AJ is about a 3 to 1 underdog, so the pot is even laying more than the correct odds to call in this dominated situation (and again BB is not going to fold for $700 more, so pushing is mathematically correct to avoid a multi-way pot with the AT). So, the push is correct even if you know the raiser has AK, AQ or AJ, but this analysis is a bit far afield because I don't think he has BB dominated. Only the original limper might have BB dominated.

[Murf]

I’ll try this again. Yeltsin is just mathematically wrong and has a bad read on raiser’s possible hands. I’m shocked so many good players agree with him. The “wait for a better situation” advice is far outweighed by the price BB is getting here. The price is overwhelming for a push, and I stand by my original recommendation:

Murf wrote:
175 players left, top 40 pay. I've got 1300, blinds are $100/$200, I'm in BB. Two limpers, one raise to $600 total. I was just moved to the table, no reads, AHeartTSpade


Murf wrote:
Within the next few hands, the blinds would have gone up, and my raise would have only been slightly more than the big blind.


Facts and my analysis:

1. Money left in stack -- BB has posted $200, so he has $1100 left in his stack after posting.

2. In the money? -- We are not on the bubble, so there is no imminent money consideration here. BB needs to build up his stack by a considerable amount to make the money.

3. Pot size -- After limpers and raise and action back to BB, the pot is $1300 (100(SB) + 200(BB) + 200(limp) + 200(limp) + 600(raise)).

4. Range of hands by raiser -- The initial range of hands that raiser may have is large, but probably does not include any of the premium hands that BB would be concerned about. This being an internet freeroll, raiser could generally have any PP, any Axo (down to maybe A9o) any Axs, suited connectors down to 87s, and one-gap (and maybe 2-gap??) suited connectors. However, there is nothing to indicate that the raiser’s hand dominates BB’s hand. In fact, his raise to only $600 (and not to something like $1000 or more after two limpers) suggests that he does NOT have a big hand that he is trying to protect. Therefore, I would rule out AA through TT, AK and AQ. The only hand I might be concerned about is AJ for the raiser, and possibly a limp-re-raise by the first limper with AA or KK (if he has shown any ability to be clever, which is not indicated in the post).

5. Odds to call -- Short-stack considerations aside for a moment, BB is getting great odds to call -- 3+ to 1 on a call ($400 cost to call, with a pot of $1300).

6. The folding option -- If BB folds, BB will post $100 next hand and be down to $1000. Before his next BB, the blinds will raise to 150/300 or (200/400?). This leaves him with virtually no folding equity. Any all-in by BB after the blinds go up is simply a standard raise (or less if the BB is 400) and will be called by a wide range of hands from a wide range of stack sizes. Further, an all-in by this short of a stack always reeks of desperation, even if he does catch a monster. With limpers before a BB all-in raise during a later hand, BB is virtually guaranteed one call, and quite possibly multiple calls. He needs a big PP or lots of luck to survive more than one more orbit.

7. Call vs. raise options -- An all-in re-raise by BB is likely to drive out the limpers and get this hand heads-up with original raiser (unless the first limper was creative with AA or KK). A call only by BB leaves only $700 in his stack. A flat call is a bad play because it lets the limpers in at a cheap price, and after that there is no way that all three other players are folding a $2500 pot for $700 more. Also, calling then folding, leaving only $700 with the blinds going up, is the Dead Zone for BB. Its either fold or all-in during this hand, regardless of whether its PF or on the flop.

Decision: Great odds to call (3+ to 1). I’m not concerned that original raiser has me dominated (except maybe AJ, and the price is even right for a call against AJ, explained below). If raiser has an underpair to BB’s overcards, then BB is getting WAY MORE than the 1 to 1 odds he needs to make this call in a heartbeat. Flat call of $400 PF here could be disastrous, because both of the limpers are likely going to call, and I don’t want AT in a 4-way pot. BB needs significant luck to survive more than one orbit because of the rising blinds. 3+ to 1 odds on a call alone dictates that he play this hand, and BB should go all-in to get it heads up against the original raiser. I would assume that I am at least about 50-50 or better, and the price is definitely right to go all-in. I would not do the “stop-and-go” here, because a flat call PF will bring in the two limpers, and there is no way that all 3 players are going to fold on the flop for $700 more when the pot is $2500.

Very well said Speakeasy. I was trying to make similar points myself, but didn't explain them nearly as well. I was getting the right odds here, and it held my best chances of isolating. If I had folded and pushed later, as I said before, the BB when I pushed would be getting the right odds to call with a wide range of hands. Calling was never an option on this hand... I'd be commiting a third of my stack, and would probably be called by atleast one of the remaining limpers (a 400 raise was being made by hands like 9Ts at my last table).

[yeltzen]

All that matters is the math baby! As long as the math says it's okay, do it! When you're wrong time and time again just tell everyone that you were mathematically correct! Everyone will be impressed with how good you are. Common sense has NO place in poker.

[Murf]

How can you defend with common sense in this case when the small raise was because of mediocre cards that a raise of that size normally represents? Common sense would say "weak raise weak cards" (unless of course you think he was betting low to trap me, which I don't think was your point).