Originally Posted by DrStrange
Looks like it is time to embrace variance . . . though it sure would be nice to have villain reads.
Let's assume this is a typical wild home game, the sort of game where people wildly overvalue hands and don't fully respect what it means to be deep stacked.
Hero really hates only one type of holding - sets. Even facing a made straight, Hero's draw is just about even money. If there is any significant chance that the push is a draw / pair + draw / overpair, then Hero should be willing to play for stacks.
Given the lack of reads, I think Hero will find calling profitable though the variance will be huge.
It is a somewhat typical home game in terms of it being pretty loose and wild. That said, (almost) the entire table is made up of thinking players who are basically all break-even or better casino players. That's not to say that Hero's (or anyone else's) home game looks anything like his casino game play
In terms of this hand, Hero actually has a pretty good feel for how both players play. The players in the CO (who reraised all-in) is fairly aggressive, but doesn't typically like to play for the huge stacks unless he's almost certain he has the best hand. In this case, I was 90%+ sure he flopped the straight (he also loves low connected cards).
The bigger variable in this hand, in my mind, was the player in LP. He's much less active in pots, especially large ones. He's a bit more passive, and typically calls both in cases where he should raise and in cases where he should fold. As such. his flat call of Hero's raise to $135 didn't help give away his hand completely. His range was quite a bit larger and in my mind could have been anything from a high overpair, to a set.
So back to Hero's decision. Hero knew that if the CO flopped a straight he was basically just getting the odds to call, and it was a matter of whether he wanted to play for stacks. But what was LP going to do? Even if he flopped a set, Hero would still be (barely) getting the odds he needs as he's be about 25% to win the hand against a made straight and a set. Hero didn't think it was likely that LP would call with anything less than a set, and it seemed unlikely that both players has a flopped straight (which would have been"ideal" for Hero).
So that said, Hero flips a coin in his head and decides to play for stacks (actually Hero pushed all-in as a call would have left Hero with $100 and he would have been committed on the turn anyway). LP shakes his head, said he must be beat by either a straight or top set, and fold middle set (55).
CO flips over
to show the flopped straight.
I offer to run it once, twice or three times, his choice. He thought for a couple second and decided to run it twice. I probably would have preferred one or three times so there would be a "winner", but as I said, I left it up to him. I ended up getting lucky and winning both boards and scooping the entire pot (we didn't rabbit hunt to see who would have won a third board). Incidentally, the board didn't pair either so LP's set wouldn't have been a winner had he called.
So two follow up questions:
(1) what would you have done in LP's position with middle set?
(2) what influence would/should the fact that LP was still acting after you had in terms of what you would have done as Hero