AQs on the button

[bentax1978]

Just finished an up and down session of 1/1 (mixed NLHE and PLO). The hand described below was the biggest of the night, which happened to be a NLHE hand. I think the hand played itself out (for the most part), but was just curious what other thought (especially in regards to Villain #1, who is in LP, acting right before the CO).

(I think we're 8 or 9 handed at this point in the night)

Hero ($610) is on the button with
Villain #1 (about $800) is in LP, acting right before the CO
Villain #2 ($505) is in the CO

Several limps until it gets to Hero (button) who raises to $10 straight. This is a pretty standard raise at the game. Hero is loose and aggressive and the raise to $10, especially on the button, means almost nothing to the rest of the table. The blinds fold and three others call the raise. Four to the flop with $44 in the pot.

Flop comes

MP checks, LP bets $35, CO calls $35, Hero raises to $100 on top and makes it $135 total with his nut flush draw.

MP folds, LP calls the extra $100, CO then goes all-in for $360 on top. Hero's getting a bit better than 2:1 to call ($360 into a $809 pot), and still has LP acting behind him (who has him covered). Thoughts?

[DrStrange]

Looks like it is time to embrace variance . . . though it sure would be nice to have villain reads.

Let's assume this is a typical wild home game, the sort of game where people wildly overvalue hands and don't fully respect what it means to be deep stacked.

Hero really hates only one type of holding - sets. Even facing a made straight, Hero's draw is just about even money (considering the pot odds). If there is any significant chance that the push is a draw / pair + draw / overpair, then Hero should be willing to play for stacks.

Given the lack of reads, I think Hero will find calling profitable though the variance will be huge.

DrStrange

[ChickenNuts]

^^^^what he said. I agree with you this hand more or less plays itself unless you fold simply to avoid the potential swing involved with calling----a bit nitty, but it is a cash game. It may be better to fold than to flip for your stack.

But, why not raise more pre-flop? If $10 means nothing, then bump it to $20 or whatever might get 5 4 and maybe 2 2 and 33 to fold.

[bentax1978]

Originally Posted by DrStrange

Looks like it is time to embrace variance . . . though it sure would be nice to have villain reads.

Let's assume this is a typical wild home game, the sort of game where people wildly overvalue hands and don't fully respect what it means to be deep stacked.

Hero really hates only one type of holding - sets. Even facing a made straight, Hero's draw is just about even money. If there is any significant chance that the push is a draw / pair + draw / overpair, then Hero should be willing to play for stacks.

Given the lack of reads, I think Hero will find calling profitable though the variance will be huge.

DrStrange

It is a somewhat typical home game in terms of it being pretty loose and wild. That said, (almost) the entire table is made up of thinking players who are basically all break-even or better casino players. That's not to say that Hero's (or anyone else's) home game looks anything like his casino game play

In terms of this hand, Hero actually has a pretty good feel for how both players play. The players in the CO (who reraised all-in) is fairly aggressive, but doesn't typically like to play for the huge stacks unless he's almost certain he has the best hand. In this case, I was 90%+ sure he flopped the straight (he also loves low connected cards).

The bigger variable in this hand, in my mind, was the player in LP. He's much less active in pots, especially large ones. He's a bit more passive, and typically calls both in cases where he should raise and in cases where he should fold. As such. his flat call of Hero's raise to $135 didn't help give away his hand completely. His range was quite a bit larger and in my mind could have been anything from a high overpair, to a set.

So back to Hero's decision. Hero knew that if the CO flopped a straight he was basically just getting the odds to call, and it was a matter of whether he wanted to play for stacks. But what was LP going to do? Even if he flopped a set, Hero would still be (barely) getting the odds he needs as he's be about 25% to win the hand against a made straight and a set. Hero didn't think it was likely that LP would call with anything less than a set, and it seemed unlikely that both players has a flopped straight (which would have been"ideal" for Hero).

So that said, Hero flips a coin in his head and decides to play for stacks (actually Hero pushed all-in as a call would have left Hero with $100 and he would have been committed on the turn anyway). LP shakes his head, said he must be beat by either a straight or top set, and fold middle set (55).

CO flips over to show the flopped straight.

I offer to run it once, twice or three times, his choice. He thought for a couple second and decided to run it twice. I probably would have preferred one or three times so there would be a "winner", but as I said, I left it up to him. I ended up getting lucky and winning both boards and scooping the entire pot (we didn't rabbit hunt to see who would have won a third board). Incidentally, the board didn't pair either so LP's set wouldn't have been a winner had he called.

So two follow up questions:

(1) what would you have done in LP's position with middle set?
(2) what influence would/should the fact that LP was still acting after you had in terms of what you would have done as Hero

[DrStrange]

I think middle set is a fold only if you range the other hands as sets or a straight. If you allow, combo draws, flush draws and overpairs into the range it becomes a snap call.

DrStrange

PS a table full of winning casino players isn't going to be anything like a normal home game table. Out of the 40+ players in my circuit, there are only two that can beat a casino cash game.

[bentax1978]

Originally Posted by DrStrange

I think middle set is a fold only if you range the other hands as sets or a straight. If you allow, combo draws, flush draws and overpairs into the range it becomes a snap call.

DrStrange

PS a table full of winning casino players isn't going to be anything like a normal home game table. Out of the 40+ players in my circuit, there are only two that can beat a casino cash game.

Regarding how LP ranged us, he put CO on either top set or a straight and put me on most likely on a flush draw, possibly a set (he knew I didn't have a straight based on the time it took me to decide what to do when CO pushed all-in). Since he had trouble putting CO on a lesser hand than his middle set, he folded. I just wasn't sure if my all-in would have been enough to make him call as well if he was fairly certain I was on a flush draw. FWIW, LP has one of the lower per session variances of the players at out game, while CO has the second highest (behind me).

As for having a table of winning casino players, there's no doubt that this particular home game isn't a particularly easy one to beat, but it's also fair to say that sometimes we all play a little differenlty than we would in a higher stakes casino game (which is why I mention is was a "typical wild and loose" game. Looking through the list of 10-12 regulars at the game (typically the entire table is regulars with maybe one new person every other week to fill in), I'd say that 3-4 have solid win rates at the casino, 4-5 are slightly better than break even and the other 2-3 are break-even, maybe slightly below. Some of the less regular players don't play in casinos often enough to make a call, but I suspect that they would not be winning casino players based on what I've seen in the home game. Most of the regulars at the table play in a casino somewhat regularly, ranging from twice a week to once or twice a month.