middle set on moncrome board

[DrStrange]

Playing 1/2 live, seven handed. Its the middle of the session. Tonight's game is more aggressive than normal and less crazy. An occational straddle, nothing more.

Cast of characters:

Hero is the Big Blind with $350. It has been a good night for Hero, he is on his opening $60 buy-in and hasn't taken a single loss at showdown. I would describe Hero as loose/semi-aggressive preflop and tighter/aggressive post flop but the rest of the table plays 80% of their hands and sees Hero's 30% VP$iP as a sign of nitty weakness.

UTG+1 is on a hot streak with a $1,200 stack on a $300 buy-in. He is winning faster than he can stack his chips, what a rough problem. With this many chips, UTG+1 is being remarkably disciplined (for him). He hasn't been playing more than 75% of his hands, but his post flop aggression is sky high. The biggest improvment in this villain's game the last year is he has learned to bet fold rather than get pot commited after his first $25 bet. He might not be betting on total air most of the time, but he bets any tiny piece of a flop.

MP has $250 and is about even for the night. He is distracted at the moment, family life is making it hard to focus on poker. No telling what he might do in any given hand, though he is less likely to be making a play. I think MP is vunerable to a host of bluffs and traps at the moment.

Button has $200 and is down $400. Button is at that point in the game where desperation is begining to cloud his judgement. I think he borders on unbluffable. He cycles between calling station looking up 'bluffs' and hyper aggressive bluffer. I see him as very loose/semi aggressive preflop and DrJeckel/MrHyde post flop - unpredictable, but overall bad.

The hand:

UTG+1 opens the hand with a raise to $6 (a bit small for the table, but not unheard of). MP calls, button calls, Hero calls with 6 6. Four to see a flop, $25 in the pot.

The flop is 9 5 6. Hero is first to act. What is Hero's plan for the hand?

Let's stipulate that we can count on a bet from UTG+1 most of the time on this flop, say 75% of the time. If UTG+1 and Hero check, there is an excellent chance that MP will check and button will bet. I'd rate it 90-10 that the flop would not check through.

DrStrange

[stocky]

Tough spot. You have a strong hand but lots of hands against you have already hit the flop hard or have great outs. I personally check. Evaluate action on the flop and maybe call.

If you lead here IMO you're likely getting called by made straights/flushes or draws. And unless the board pairs I think you're in trouble.

My 2¢ anyway. Probably way off.

[ChickenNuts]

Given that the flop is dripping wet against the range of these villains can have and that our hand is too strong to fold, I'm inclined to check and see what these characters do. If there is a ton of action, we are likely beat and can figure out if we think we've got the implied odds necessary to draw to our boat since we'll get there about 33% of the time by the river.

If we think that donking out against these characters is likely to result in calls and not a massive re-raise, then I'd be inclined to donk bet whatever amount is likely to induce a the cascade of calls necessary to chase the boat.

Did the hero consider re-raising pre flop? IMO this is a good spot to 3bet if we can narrow the villains range of hands down substantially---against these characters, that might not be possible and then flatting is obviously best.

[DrStrange]

*** intermeadiate results ***

Hero decides to adopt a check call line, intending to call down to the river if the board doesn't four flush. The villains have a lot of air in their ranges if hero lets them bet. These aren't your casino regulars, they see a monotone board as an opportunity to bluff as much as flop gin.

Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $25, MP folds, button calls, Hero calls. Three to see a turn, $100 in the pot.

Turn is < 9 5 6 > 2.

Hero sticks with the plan and checks, UTG+1 bets $50, button calls, Hero calls. Three to see the river, $250 in the pot. It is notable that Hero got proper odds to draw to the full house even if someone has the flush, but Hero thinks he might be ahead.

River is < 9 5 6 > < 2> 8.

Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, Button pushes all in for $119. While Hero is thinking about his action (which took a little while) UTG+1 calls. Hero is getting great odds to call, but he has little more than a bluff catcher. (but button has a lot of air in range) { but UTG+1 called and he can't be bluffing. }

So what does Hero do?

DrStrange

PS as for 3-betting preflop. If you follow the various threads I post, you'll note Hero gets called for large bets often in multiple places. That type play might work in a casino setting but it has almost no chance of getting everyone to fold - its rather likely Hero would get everyone to call.

[rhodeman77]

I think you have to fold. I think one of them has the 7 and rivered their straight.

[Hender62]

It doesn't feel like a made flush unless it is something like the nut flush. The caller from out of position feels weak to me and most likely has something like 2 pair. Comes down to read on all in better. How many times do you need to be right to make it a profitable call?

Side note: I am going to guess that you called.

[jldecarlo]

FWIW I bet the flop at least a pot-sized bet. This is what happened anyway, so it probably doesn't make much difference.

You need to win just over 20% of the time. I know you described the players and have before, but it's still hard to tell without being there on hands like this. Mostly I fold. Always fold if UTG+1 is still live. In this case his early call has made a call by you action-closing, so calling is probably only a little -EV. As in lots of these cases it comes down to hand ranges. You win if they were both on flush draws. If either was on an OESD than both have hit (45 and 47). Obviously you lose to flopped flushes and straights. You also lose to higher sets and about half the gutshot draws, none of which seem that likely.

My guess. You're up against a straight probably from UTG+1 and you should fold.

L

PS But what do I know? I've been seeing the bad side of variance recently.

[DrStrange]

*** Results ***

Hero gets some unexpected help from UTG+1's out of turn call. UTG+1 pulls back his bet and restacks his chips when Hero speaks up about it being his turn to act. Hero looks at button to see if he will say something about out of turn bets being binding. Button doesn't look like someone salivating over at least one call. UTG+1 looks like he was making more of a crying call than someone who tricked button into betting.

Hero makes a donkey call.

UTG+1 tables K K
Button tables T 9
Hero stacks some ill-gotten chips.

DrStrange

[abby99]

Congrats on a great read and for dragging a nice pot!

Of all the poker strategies, paying attention just might be one of the most important.

[ChickenNuts]

Nice call---curious if you can recall what exactly tipped you off that both villains were weak. I'm sure I'd fold.