Playing 1/2 live, seven handed. Its the middle of the session. Tonight's game is more aggressive than normal and less crazy. An occational straddle, nothing more.
Cast of characters:
Hero is the Big Blind with $350. It has been a good night for Hero, he is on his opening $60 buy-in and hasn't taken a single loss at showdown. I would describe Hero as loose/semi-aggressive preflop and tighter/aggressive post flop but the rest of the table plays 80% of their hands and sees Hero's 30% VP$iP as a sign of nitty weakness.
UTG+1 is on a hot streak with a $1,200 stack on a $300 buy-in. He is winning faster than he can stack his chips, what a rough problem. With this many chips, UTG+1 is being remarkably disciplined (for him). He hasn't been playing more than 75% of his hands, but his post flop aggression is sky high. The biggest improvment in this villain's game the last year is he has learned to bet fold rather than get pot commited after his first $25 bet. He might not be betting on total air most of the time, but he bets any tiny piece of a flop.
MP has $250 and is about even for the night. He is distracted at the moment, family life is making it hard to focus on poker. No telling what he might do in any given hand, though he is less likely to be making a play. I think MP is vunerable to a host of bluffs and traps at the moment.
Button has $200 and is down $400. Button is at that point in the game where desperation is begining to cloud his judgement. I think he borders on unbluffable. He cycles between calling station looking up 'bluffs' and hyper aggressive bluffer. I see him as very loose/semi aggressive preflop and DrJeckel/MrHyde post flop - unpredictable, but overall bad.
UTG+1 opens the hand with a raise to $6 (a bit small for the table, but not unheard of). MP calls, button calls, Hero calls with 6
. Four to see a flop, $25 in the pot.
The flop is 9
. Hero is first to act. What is Hero's plan for the hand?
Let's stipulate that we can count on a bet from UTG+1 most of the time on this flop, say 75% of the time. If UTG+1 and Hero check, there is an excellent chance that MP will check and button will bet. I'd rate it 90-10 that the flop would not check through.