turning a straight on a paired board

[bentax1978]

This hand occurred a few hours into a 2/5 session at a somewhat passive 2/5 table. Quite a few limped multi-way pots and not a lot of aggression preflop. There are two Villains in this hand. Villain #1 is in the BB (about $250 in front) and has only been at the table for about 20-30 minutes. Can't tell much about his play, nothing notable to report in the first couple rounds he's been there. Villain #2 is in MP and has a little over $400 in front) and is one of the more aggressive players at the table. He's in for a few buy-ins (at least), and I was one of the people who felted him earlier in the night. Hero is on the button and has both players covered (Hero has about $1500 in front).

A couple limps around the table, Hero looks down at 89 on the button and calls the $5, SB folds and then BB raises to $30. Folds to MP Villain, who calls, as does Hero on the button. Three to the flop ($102 in the pot).

Flop is a rainbow JJT [$102 in pot]

BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks on the button with the bottom end of an open ended straight on a paired board.

Turn gives Hero a straight and puts two diamond on the board. JJT 7 [$102 in pot]

BB bets out $40. MP raises to $105 total. Action is on Hero.

What should Hero do? (and for the record, even though I'm the "Hero" in this hand, I'm not 100% sure I agree with what I did in hindsight).

[DrStrange]

Let's start by being thankful stacks are 50BB and 80BB. This could get ugly playing deep.

I think Hero should commit to play for stacks unless he gets to the river and the board pairs. Being greedy, I want to try to get both stacks. I think Hero should flat the raise, doing his best to look like a guy drawing to diamonds. Hero will reshove over a BB shove if MP doesn't beat him to it.

Here are my villain ranges -

A somewhat passive BB raises preflop from the button, let range him AJs+ AQo+ TT+ so far. BB checks the flop but bets the turn. I read that as either "I flopped the world" or "I got an overpair, but ZOMG someone might have a jack" Let give him TT+ and AK/Q. Mostly an overpair drawing thin.

MP check/called preflop. Checked flop but raised the turn. I'd range him mostly with a Jx (including JT for the nut full house), some tiny chance of underfull, the same straight, a flush draw or even a pot stealing bluff. Mostly I see MP on a Jack.

Best guess BB is drawing to two outs and will fold to any further pressure on the turn but maybe he will feel committed to an overpair if Hero flats. MP trapped with trip jacks and has a host of outs if he doesn't already have Hero drawing dead. MP would play for stacks right now (but then we would miss getting BB's money and miss the chance to fold a double paired board.)

This isn't for the weak of heart. It could go wrong, but Hero also might win a fat pot. I don't want to think hard about doing this with 200BB effective stacks . . .

DrStrange

[bentax1978]

Originally Posted by DrStrange

Let's start by being thankful stacks are 50BB and 80BB. This could get ugly playing deep.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by DrStrange

I think Hero should commit to play for stacks unless he gets to the river and the board pairs. Being greedy, I want to try to get both stacks. I think Hero should flat the raise, doing his best to look like a guy drawing to diamonds. Hero will reshove over a BB shove if MP doesn't beat him to it.

Hero's thinking was pretty much identical

Originally Posted by DrStrange

Here are my villain ranges -

A somewhat passive BB raises preflop from the button, let range him AJs+ AQo+ TT+ so far. BB checks the flop but bets the turn. I read that as either "I flopped the world" or "I got an overpair, but ZOMG someone might have a jack" Let give him TT+ and AK/Q. Mostly an overpair drawing thin.

MP check/called preflop. Checked flop but raised the turn. I'd range him mostly with a Jx (including JT for the nut full house), some tiny chance of underfull, the same straight, a flush draw or even a pot stealing bluff. Mostly I see MP on a Jack.

Best guess BB is drawing to two outs and will fold to any further pressure on the turn but maybe he will feel committed to an overpair if Hero flats. MP trapped with trip jacks and has a host of outs if he doesn't already have Hero drawing dead. MP would play for stacks right now (but then we would miss getting BB's money and miss the chance to fold a double paired board.)

This isn't for the weak of heart. It could go wrong, but Hero also might win a fat pot. I don't want to think hard about doing this with 200BB effective stacks . . .

DrStrange

A pretty good analysis. See next post...

[bentax1978]

Originally Posted by bentax1978

This hand occurred a few hours into a 2/5 session at a somewhat passive 2/5 table. Quite a few limped multi-way pots and not a lot of aggression preflop. There are two Villains in this hand. Villain #1 is in the BB (about $250 in front) and has only been at the table for about 20-30 minutes. Can't tell much about his play, nothing notable to report in the first couple rounds he's been there. Villain #2 is in MP and has a little over $400 in front) and is one of the more aggressive players at the table. He's in for a few buy-ins (at least), and I was one of the people who felted him earlier in the night. Hero is on the button and has both players covered (Hero has about $1500 in front).

A couple limps around the table, Hero looks down at 89 on the button and calls the $5, SB folds and then BB raises to $30. Folds to MP Villain, who calls, as does Hero on the button. Three to the flop ($102 in the pot).

Flop is a rainbow JJT [$102 in pot]

BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks on the button with the bottom end of an open ended straight on a paired board.

Turn gives Hero a straight and puts two diamond on the board. JJT 7 [$102 in pot]

BB bets out $40. MP raises to $105 total. Action is on Hero.

Hero decides to flat the $105. BB folds (and we don't end up finding out what he had). Two to the river, $362 in the pot.

The river is a blank, with the final board JJT 7 5 [$362 in the pot]

MP acts first and goes all in for his final $270. Hero figured he was most likely good on the turn, realizing that JT was the most likely hand to have him beat (77 or TT were possible too). Hero is fairly certain the 5 on the river didn't help Villain, however Hero feels MP seems very confident with his hand/bet and this gives Hero second thoughts about snap calling. Is there really any choice for Hero at this point, especially getting over 2:1 on his money to call?

[albie]

You only need 30% equity to call & he can have AJ or KJ and be very confident in his hand. TT/JJ seem unlikely given the preflop action plus there aren't many of them. 55,J5,J7 aren't consistent & 77 is just sick . Even if you're certain of your read, I don't think you can fold.

[spikeithard]

I would call personally. I would assume more than likely he has a jack... KJ KQ orAJ.

I would feel like i'm ahead 70% of the time and getting 2:1+ odds I would feel ok calling.

Hey look..1000th post

[bentax1978]

Originally Posted by albie

You only need 30% equity to call & he can have AJ or KJ and be very confident in his hand. TT/JJ seem unlikely given the preflop action plus there aren't many of them. 55,J5,J7 aren't consistent & 77 is just sick . Even if you're certain of your read, I don't think you can fold.

I agree, I think this Villain would have raised preflop with either TT or JJ, so I wasn't really worried about either of those hand. 77 would make sense with the limp/call preflop and the check on the flop. Certainly if Villain has 77, that would be a truly sick turn for me.

I also agree that since I only need 30% equity to call, folding isn't really an option. I guess I just got a weird vibe from his bet and decided I wanted to think about it for a minute or two. As a side note, and I know this should not have played into my thinking at all, but a good friend of mine had just sat down at the table. He's the other winning player from my regular home game (aside from me) and on some level I felt extra pressure to make the "right" call.

[bentax1978]

Originally Posted by bentax1978

Hero decides to flat the $105. BB folds (and we don't end up finding out what he had). Two to the river, $362 in the pot.

The river is a blank, with the final board JJT 7 5 [$362 in the pot]

MP acts first and goes all in for his final $270. Hero figured he was most likely good on the turn, realizing that JT was the most likely hand to have him beat (77 or TT were possible too). Hero is fairly certain the 5 on the river didn't help Villain, however Hero feels MP seems very confident with his hand/bet and this gives Hero second thoughts about snap calling. Is there really any choice for Hero at this point, especially getting over 2:1 on his money to call?

I have a feeling the overwhelming majority of people would post that this is a fairly easy call in this situation, so I'll just post the results.

After thinking about it for a minute or two, Hero acknowledges that despite his concerns with his read of the Villain, he's probably good most of the time in this situation, not to mention he's getting great odds where he's only have to be good about 30% of the time to call. Hero puts himself in Villain's shoes and realizes there are quite a few hands that Villain might feel very confident with that don't actually have Hero beat.

Anyway, Hero calls the all-in and waits to see Villains cards. Hero sometimes makes the mistake of turning his cards over right away and misses out on seeing what Villain pushed with. Villain turns over KJ, and you could tell when he did that he was fairly certain (even after Hero's call) that he was good. I turn over my straight, which Villain is somewhat surprised to see. He nodded, said good hand, and told the player next to him that he was pretty sure I was on a diamond draw when I flat called the $105 on the turn.

That does bring up one last question. As the Villain, would you have bet $270 if you thought your hand was best but also thought the other player was on a busted diamond draw? Did he perhaps do that in case his read was wrong and I had a weaker Jack? Again, just curious. For what it's worth, I probably would have pushed all-in as well if I were Villain as it would have been very hard for him to put me on a straight the way things played out.

[going_downs]

hi
I disagree with the villains thinking in this hand if he really thinks you had a busted flush draw. First of all his shove on the river makes no sense if he thinks that. He should check or bet really small hoping you picked up a pair and can hero call.

And your flat call on the turn screams strength/made hand with these stack sizes imo. (but theres really no other way to play the hand).

his shove on the river is fine if he knows you percieve him as aggressive and think you will call pretty light.

my 2 cents. fun hand.

[bentax1978]

Originally Posted by going_downs

hi
I disagree with the villains thinking in this hand if he really thinks you had a busted flush draw. First of all his shove on the river makes no sense if he thinks that. He should check or bet really small hoping you picked up a pair and can hero call.

And your flat call on the turn screams strength/made hand with these stack sizes imo. (but theres really no other way to play the hand).

his shove on the river is fine if he knows you percieve him as aggressive and think you will call pretty light.

my 2 cents. fun hand.

I think the key point is whether he actually thought I was on a busted flush draw (as opposed to just saying that after the fact). My flat call of his raise on the turn should have been seen as a sign on strength, but I suppose given the amount we both had behind, he might have thought I'd call with a flush draw there (despite the paired board). I suppose he could have put me on something like QJ and just thought he was good and wanted to maximize what he assumed was the winning hand. That's about the only (losing) hand I might have had that I could have called the river all-in (maybe J9 as well). Also, based on my play and table image to that point, he had no reason to believe that I'd call light.