Re: PLO: Guess the equity contest
Not sure I understand your question, but to me it looks like you are ahead 55/45 on the turn knowing all the hole cards. He could hit 3 As, 2 Qs, 3 5s, 3 8s, or the remaining 7 flush cards which adds up to 18 outs. 18 outs with 40 unseen cards = 45% chance of winning on the river.
On the flop you had only an overpair and a backdoor straight draw, not too great. I would guess you were a dog to the tune of 60/40. Knowing exactly what the villain has, he's better than 2:1 to hit a flush, and better than 2:1 to hit two pair or trips. But if he hits two pair, you have some outs to pair the board and counterfeit his second pair.