PLO: Guess the equity contest

[JoseRijo]

Last Saturday at Berg's house, the wheels came off my PLO game. And then so did the hood, the doors, the steering wheel, the paint job, and then it crashed into a tree and caromed off an embankment.

Before I discuss further, I'd like interested parties to take this little quiz. Without looking up the numbers, estimate KK32's equity versus top pair and the nut flush draw on the flop and a fairly safe turn:

Board: Qc Td 4c (9s)

Hands: Kh Kd 3h 2s
Ac Qs 5c 8d

Any hints to your thought process would be most helpful. My thoughts: "I'm ahead now, how bad off can I be on such a dry board?"

[jbutler16]

in the spirit of the thread i didn't run the numbers, but let's say on the turn you've got 76% vs villain's 24%? he's got 9 flush outs, 2 queens, 9 two pair outs, and 4 gutshot outs.

[mipevi]

Based on the outs listed above (minus duplicates ), I'm going to guesstimate hero 47% vs. villain's 53%.

[jbutler16]

whoops duplicates fmplogame now i'll go 70/30 on turn

[mipevi]

I see your 70/30 and say hero 45% villain 55%

edit: this was turn equity of course, didn't notice at first I should guess flop eq as well..

[Glider]

Not sure I understand your question, but to me it looks like you are ahead 55/45 on the turn knowing all the hole cards. He could hit 3 As, 2 Qs, 3 5s, 3 8s, or the remaining 7 flush cards which adds up to 18 outs. 18 outs with 40 unseen cards = 45% chance of winning on the river.

On the flop you had only an overpair and a backdoor straight draw, not too great. I would guess you were a dog to the tune of 60/40. Knowing exactly what the villain has, he's better than 2:1 to hit a flush, and better than 2:1 to hit two pair or trips. But if he hits two pair, you have some outs to pair the board and counterfeit his second pair.

[mipevi]

Hero's flop eq is prolly terrible because he has next to no redraws... on the flop guesstimating hero 25% villain 75%

[jbutler16]

god my brain is shot at work today. i feel like i've been hiking in the damn sahara for four days. eff my math in this thread. i'm going out to buy an abacus

[Glider]

oops, forgot the 3 remaining jacks and undercounted by one on the clubs.

[mipevi]

What's an abacus?