Ok, so this particular hand preceeded the "AJs in the small blind
" hand by about an hour. I found this to be a very interesting hand because I ended up making a move that was solely based on what I felt the Villain was holding, with pretty much no regard for my hand (other than using that info to calculate the odds of what he was holding).
So here's the hand. Hero is once again the small blind and is dealt
Similar to the other hand I posted, it was also limped around to Hero and he decided to raise to $11. Just to save time, I'll acknowledge that raising with ATs out of position isn't a great idea. BB is the same (typically passive calling station) described in the previous post, but there's no questions he's making an effort to open up his game over the past few weeks. I don't personally think he's going about it in a good way, but that's a topic for another discussion.
Anyway, after Hero (SB) raises to $11, the BB raised to $26 total ($15 on top). This time there are two callers before it gets back to the Hero in the SB. The whole thing seems odds as two people who limped only had $1 committed to the pot choose to throw $25 more in against this guy's reraise. However, at that point I only had to call $15 into a pot of about $90, so I did.
I have no idea where I stand (which is obviously the problem with being OOP with a marginal hand like AT). So I check, realizing that I am most likely going to fold to any action. Villain (BB) bets out $50 into the $105 pot. Other two plays fold quickly and it's back to the Hero.
So here's where it gets interesting. Based on the Villain's preflop raise, I actually had his range narrowed down to AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK. Obviously he could have other hands, but I felt that given his reraise and the fact that he seldom raises (let alone reraises) preflop made those hands the most likely. Given this, I quickly thought about the likelihood he was holding AA/KK/AK vs QQ/JJ. I figured there were 20 combos that gave him AA/KK/AK (because of the AK on the board and A in my hand) and 24 combos that gave him QQ/JJ. So I felt that there was only less than a 50% chance he was holding a "strong" hand and the $50 bet was a value bet, perhaps hoping to induce a raise. Conversely I felt there was better than 50% chance he was holding a weaker hand and the $50 bet was more of a probe.
So I decided to raise him to $150 total ($100 more on top). My thought was that if he had QQ/JJ he would fold and I'd win $155. If he had AA/KK/AK he would either flat call or raise, but either way I'd lose $150. I knew this wasn't a very high EV move, but I felt (based on my 3-4 seconds of calculating) that it was slightly positive and was worth a shot.
Villain thought for a good minute, and finally said something like "I just don't see you raising me like that if you didn't have a better hand". To be honest, that made me think perhaps my assessment of his range was wrong since I felt he'd have an easy fold or easy call/raise situation to deal with. He then folded AJ (don't recall if it was suited or not).
So in the end, my quick analysis during the hand was flawed as I didn't really think he would reraise to $26 with AJ from the BB. It worked out as I took the pot down (with the inferior hand). That said, had I known he might be holding AQ/AJ, I might have done the exact same in an effort to steal the pot