$1/2NL: Getting max value with a boat on the turn

jbutler16 · Tweet this Post! #1 06-20-2012, 08:27 AM

No information on villain. He plays in another local home game I've never been to and is known by some of the players in this game, but not by me. Early in the session. He has about $160 and I have him covered.

He raises preflop from UTG+2 to $11. I call from MP with

and everyone else folds.

flop ($25):

He bets $20; I flat.

turn ($65):

He bets $40; my play?

This is a common spot and I typically base by decision on the villain's history of betting his draws, of his proclivity to put another player on a draw and call down a river bet on a brick believing they're bluffing, etc. I have nothing on this guy, though. Better to put in a raise and try to get more money in the pot now or better to flat and hope he'll fire the river and why?

MHDMalaka · Tweet this Post! #2 06-20-2012, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbutler16

No information on villain. He plays in another local home game I've never been to and is known by some of the players in this game, but not by me. Early in the session. He has about $160 and I have him covered.

He raises preflop from UTG+2 to $11. I call from MP with

and everyone else folds.

flop ($25):

He bets $20; I flat.

turn ($65):

He bets $40; my play?

This is a common spot and I typically base by decision on the villain's history of betting his draws, of his proclivity to put another player on a draw and call down a river bet on a brick believing they're bluffing, etc. I have nothing on this guy, though. Better to put in a raise and try to get more money in the pot now or better to flat and hope he'll fire the river and why?

I would raise now. If he's drawing he may only bet the river if he hits. If he has an overpair to the board he may call it now thinking he's best. (Of course I believe we talked about giving unknowns credit and you said you don't anymore, they have to prove themselves so maybe flat and let him donk bet the river.)

DrStrange · Tweet this Post! #3 06-20-2012, 09:42 AM

I think Hero should put in a raise and put villain all-in

The pot is $145 after Hero catches up to villain's last bet. Villain has about $90 left. I can't see many villains folding an overpair given the pot odds, and some folks would call with the flush draw even though the odds are wrong.

If Hero flats, there is a chance for a 'bad' river that makes villain unwilling to commit more money. The most common 'bad' river is a non spade giving villain a busted draw. If he isn't the type to bet his busted draw, he surely isn't calling a bet from Hero. Maybe villain has a weak overpair and the ace of spades is the river - that might make it hard to get more money into the pot as well with the board flushing and the dreaded ace as well.

The only time I would encourage Hero to stay passive on the turn is vs a well known villain who is a LAGtard betting machine. Otherwise, the stack sizes make me think a raise is in order. (Or if we had seen villain's hand and knew he was blufffing with no draw.....)

DrStrange

JoseRijo · Tweet this Post! #4 06-20-2012, 09:42 AM

I think folding the turn is easier than folding the river with an overpair here (as long as the river is a brick). The time to raise was the flop.

spikeithard · Tweet this Post! #5 06-20-2012, 09:49 AM

your right dr strange...I would put him all in on the turn. if he has a nice spade draw then maybe you will get paid or an over pair will pay you off. but calling leads to the chance of 10 falling or heck, even another 6 to give him the world. best get the money in now because you have a better shot of getting more money here than if you try on the river after a turn call on him.

jbutler16 · Tweet this Post! #6 06-20-2012, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoseRijo

The time to raise was the flop.

don't you think he's just c-betting a large percentage of the time on the flop, though? my thought was let him barrel if he's barreling. most lags will double barrel but few will triple. by calling the flop i get him to barrel the turn with all his value hands and many of his bluffs. if i raise the flop i only get any more money from the value hands. i also figured he was shallow enough that i could afford to wait to try to get all his money in the pot.

robinnh · Tweet this Post! #7 06-20-2012, 10:05 AM

He has 90 left, and probably has a hand that can take a little heat. You can probably raise right here to get the rest of his stack in. The problem is your player pool. Are they going to read a turn shove as strength regardless of bet/pot size in this game? If most players are going to fail to find the fold, shove. He'll be getting >2:1 on a call, and might just go there. The players I play with don't understand the math of holdem, and love to get it in on a naked raggy flush draw, and then curse when they miss their flush "again."

robinnh · Tweet this Post! #8 06-20-2012, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbutler16

don't you think he's just c-betting a large percentage of the time on the flop, though? my thought was let him barrel if he's barreling. most lags will double barrel but few will triple. by calling the flop i get him to barrel the turn with all his value hands and many of his bluffs. if i raise the flop i only get any more money from the value hands. i also figured he was shallow enough that i could afford to wait to try to get all his money in the pot.

Wow, 5 posts between the time I opened this thread and posted my response.

I think you are right to flat the flop. I think it is too easy for the villain to get away from the hand too cheaply with either air or a light holding if we don't give him some rope. I also think that the turn is where I get my money in here.

Against some known villains, I wait until the river. Against an an unknown, I take my chances here on the turn.

jldecarlo · Tweet this Post! #9 06-20-2012, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robinnh

I think you are right to flat the turn.

You mean the flop, right?

I flat the flop maybe half the time and raise the rest. I push the turn. I think he's more likely to call with a card to come than without since he would be all-in without further $$ at risk.

L

fish72 · Tweet this Post! #10 06-20-2012, 10:43 AM

If you raise I think you are representing the 6. From his perspective, is he going to believe this? Do you have the rep of a player that would call a preflop raise with a 6 and big flop bet with 2nd pair?
Either way, I'd go ahead and raise here to get some more money in the pot. He's bet twice so if he has a real hand like an overpair or nice draw he'll probably call. And a few hands that are drawing live will fold. 88 or 99 probably won't pay you anymore if you flat call and they miss.