50NL Huuuuge all-in with pair + nut flush draw

JoseRijo · Tweet this Post! #1 03-20-2009, 02:04 PM

I think this hand is pretty standard, except we are 180BBs deep. Anyone play any differently?

Oh by the way... villain is 83/35/4.6, if that changes anything. I probably have a couple of other goodies to share after this one.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

BTN: $50.00
SB: $90.85
BB: $70.80
Hero (UTG): $89.25
CO: $44.90

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with A

8

Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50, SB raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, BTN calls $1

Flop: ($8.00) 9

8

6

(3 players)
SB bets $14.50, Hero raises to $86.75 all in

imthatguy · Tweet this Post! #2 03-20-2009, 02:18 PM

Oh boy. I hope it was a snap-poosh against Jays.

xtwalker · Tweet this Post! #3 03-20-2009, 03:17 PM

Hard to know without seeing a few of the hands behind those rediculous stats. Prolly a good shove w 7c8c, but not Ac8c. You know you are getting called by someone with those stats, and you are almost always behind.

Why race with up to 12 outs and no fold equity when you can prolly just outplay him for the next hr or two and get teh moniez anyways.

(yes I do think the extra outs from a combo draw are worth making it a shove)

mipevi · Tweet this Post! #4 03-20-2009, 03:31 PM

Isn't SB making the standard play with aces? You know, minraise pre to trap the other players and then overbet the scary flop for value?

Not sure if I'm comfortable flipping that deep, but I'm never folding here. I might just call even with the poor direct odds because you and SB are deep and the button is still left to act, and I don't expect the SB to fold to a shove here very often.

siNdreAd · Tweet this Post! #5 03-20-2009, 03:56 PM

Heh

well I don't hate it - but it's a giant overbet so I don't like it regardless of the stats. Typically hands that call you here are ahead - MAYBE not with his stats, it would be really tough (maybe impossible) to raise and fold here - however you also make it easy for him to fold with your overbet - I would probably put in a raise of about 20-22ish and leave him some room to think he might be able to bluff you off the hand - that way he sometimes shoves hands he would have folded to your overbet.

JoseRijo · Tweet this Post! #6 03-20-2009, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mipevi

Isn't SB making the standard play with aces? You know, minraise pre to trap the other players and then overbet the scary flop for value?

LOL. Did you see his stats? He doesn't know that you can modify the amount of raises. I can guarantee his range involves more than AA. T8o is in his range.

SiNdreAd, what happens when he smooth calls your range and the turn invariably bricks?

jojobinks · Tweet this Post! #7 03-20-2009, 05:52 PM

i think you're ahead of his range, i think you're getting 3:2 and i think you can rebuy all you want. so i think you call. the range below shows many likely hands, but he's got to have at least 10% air or air-ish hands as well, judging by those numbers.

Board: 9c 8s 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.027% 52.40% 00.63% 54466 655.50 { Ac8c }
Hand 1: 46.973% 46.34% 00.63% 48173 655.50 { 66+, A9s, K9s, Q9s, JTs, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, A9o, K9o, Q9o, JTo }

edit: ps...

siNdreAd · Tweet this Post! #8 03-20-2009, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoseRijo

LOL. Did you see his stats? He doesn't know that you can modify the amount of raises. I can guarantee his range involves more than AA. T8o is in his range.

SiNdreAd, what happens when he smooth calls your range and the turn invariably bricks?

Well, you're in position so see what he does and re-evaluate. Does the smooth call set off warning bells? etc. It's tough to fold against these stats with those pot odds but big lay downs are important to your win rate as well. Despite his stats what are his other tendencies ?

siNdreAd · Tweet this Post! #9 03-20-2009, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jojobinks

i think you're ahead of his range, i think you're getting 3:2 and i think you can rebuy all you want. so i think you call. the range below shows many likely hands, but he's got to have at least 10% air or air-ish hands as well, judging by those numbers.

Board: 9c 8s 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.027% 52.40% 00.63% 54466 655.50 { Ac8c }
Hand 1: 46.973% 46.34% 00.63% 48173 655.50 { 66+, A9s, K9s, Q9s, JTs, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, A9o, K9o, Q9o, JTo }

Another option if you think you're ahead is to smooth call and let him keep firing... that's also more likely to get extra money in from a weak hand than over betting the flop will.

jojobinks · Tweet this Post! #10 03-20-2009, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by siNdreAd

Another option if you think you're ahead is to smooth call and let him keep firing... that's also more likely to get extra money in from a weak hand than over betting the flop will.

ya, the problem is that smoothcalling hurts your range, maybe more than his.

when he has some dumb hand like 97, he gets to bet when the straight comes, check/fold when the flush comes, and keep betting when a deuce comes. basically it allows him to outplay us. also, right now we have 47% against 97o (and we get 3:2 as played, which of course we like if we know he has 97o), but when an offsuit deuce comes we're down to 31% and basically need to fold.

which is why many good players raise with flush draws.