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  #1 (permalink)     Top 
Old 06-09-2008, 08:48 AM
JoseRijo's Avatar
JoseRijo JoseRijo is offline
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25NL - AA hand with a surprise

I thought this AA hand was interesting for a bunch of reasons. Evil villain is
70/22/1.7 over 20 hands. It's a small sample size, but he's clearly here to
gambol.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $24.65
MP: $15
CO: $27.10
BTN: $24.80
SB: $11.55
BB: $26.75

Pre-Flop: Ah Ad dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $0.85, 4 folds, BB raises to $2, Hero raises to $5.15, BB calls $3.15

Flop: ($10.40) Qh 8h Kh (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.75, BB raises to $11.50, Hero raises to $19.50 and is All-In, BB calls $8

So here are my questions and thoughts:

1) How is my pre-flop 4-bet size? I obviously want him to call, so I made it
a little small. Should it have been closer to $6?

2) Post-flop, I can't see folding with the Ace of hearts. Standard, right?

3) What would you do with two black aces instead?

There's a special surprise in this hand that I'll reveal later, so stay tuned!
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Old 06-09-2008, 08:58 AM
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Re: 25NL - AA hand with a surprise

preflop my standard is 3x their bet so $6 kinda nitty difference but. Going with your read though if their calling often then punish them and make it $7-$7.5.
flop - wow what an awful flop. I personally would check behind, he gave you a free shot at your heart, he could be playing any two suited, KQ or any other K or Q for that matter given his numbers.
turn - evaluate given what falls and what his reaction is etc.

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Old 06-09-2008, 09:06 AM
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Re: 25NL - AA hand with a surprise

Well, I think that you could be way behind at this point, I would have folded on that flop....


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Old 06-09-2008, 09:09 AM
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Re: 25NL - AA hand with a surprise

I 3bet $2 to $7.

Bet that flop please and yeah go broke.
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Old 06-09-2008, 09:13 AM
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Re: 25NL - AA hand with a surprise

Quote:
Originally Posted by littlebu View Post
he could be playing any two suited, KQ or any other K or Q for that matter given his numbers.
I'm actually ahead of KQ. But checking behind looks like it might be
good if I didn't have the Ah.

Poker Odds Calculator (twodimes.net)
pokenum -h ah ad - ks qc -- qh kh 8h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kh Qh 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 513 51.82 477 48.18 0 0.00 0.518
Ks Qc 477 48.18 513 51.82 0 0.00 0.482

Poker Odds Calculator (twodimes.net)
pokenum -h as ad - ks qc -- qh kh 8h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kh Qh 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad 258 26.06 687 69.39 45 4.55 0.283
Ks Qc 687 69.39 258 26.06 45 4.55 0.717
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Old 06-09-2008, 09:24 AM
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Re: 25NL - AA hand with a surprise

I'm curious how this ended up...and what the villain had.
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Old 06-09-2008, 09:53 AM
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Re: 25NL - AA hand with a surprise

I smell Royal Flush
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Old 06-09-2008, 10:00 AM
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Re: 25NL - AA hand with a surprise

I think I go broke here, I would always c-bet that flop, but once I have put in the c-bet I'm always going broke here.

The only way I'd get away from it is if Villain donk bets the flop....even then its close, depends on villains stats, and I dont think I'm folding to a 70/22 here.
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Old 06-09-2008, 10:06 AM
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Re: 25NL - AA hand with a surprise

Quote:
Originally Posted by StevenH72 View Post
I think I go broke here, I would always c-bet that flop, but once I have put in the c-bet I'm always going broke here.

The only way I'd get away from it is if Villain donk bets the flop....even then its close, depends on villains stats, and I dont think I'm folding to a 70/22 here.

DOn;t forget, this is a small sample..not over a long period.
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Old 06-09-2008, 10:17 AM
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Re: 25NL - AA hand with a surprise

Quote:
Originally Posted by 99%evil View Post
DOn;t forget, this is a small sample..not over a long period.
That is true a small period would factor in, in which case it would depend upon hands villain has showndown.
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