[jmc]

I'm wondering what you guys think about semi-bluffing with big draws against players that don't fold much -- is it better to play it smaller on the flop/turn (assuming our opponents tend not to bet enough to chase away draws) and value bet the river, or do you prefer to jam it in early as a 50+% favorite?

Example:

Notes: I would usually reraise with AKs, but I thought MP might actually have a better than average hand. Besides, nobody folds preflop and I'm not sure if it's a great idea to jam a lot of money in preflop and end up OOP in a huge pot.

This is hand #11, so I don't have a great read on any of the players. However, I don't give UTG credit for a great hand considering he's played 7 of the last 10 hands, and even called a preflop raise from the blinds w/ A6o (he proceeded to donk the flop 2 3 9, called a minraise, donked the turn 8, and check/called the river A [he got K9 to value bluff his hand]).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

CO (t1465)
Button (t2205)
SB (t210)
Hero (t1470)
UTG (t3615)
UTG+1 (t1780)
MP1 (t1390)
MP2 (t1365)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A.
UTG calls t30, 1 fold, MP1 calls t30, MP2 raises to t90, 3 folds, Hero calls t60, UTG calls t60, MP1 calls t60.

Flop: (t375) Q, 9, J (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t210, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t210, Hero raises to t1380, UTG calls t1170, MP2 folds.

Turn: (t3345) J (2 players)
River: (t3345) 5 (2 players)

Final Pot: t3345

[xtwalker]

Originally Posted by jmc

I'm wondering what you guys think about semi-bluffing with big draws against players that don't fold much -- is it better to play it smaller on the flop/turn (assuming our opponents tend not to bet enough to chase away draws) and value bet the river, or do you prefer to jam it in early as a 50+% favorite?

Example:

Notes: I would usually reraise with AKs, but I thought MP might actually have a better than average hand. Besides, nobody folds preflop and I'm not sure if it's a great idea to jam a lot of money in preflop and end up OOP in a huge pot.

This is hand #11, so I don't have a great read on any of the players. However, I don't give UTG credit for a great hand considering he's played 7 of the last 10 hands, and even called a preflop raise from the blinds w/ A6o (he proceeded to donk the flop 2 3 9, called a minraise, donked the turn 8, and check/called the river A [he got K9 to value bluff his hand]).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

CO (t1465)
Button (t2205)
SB (t210)
Hero (t1470)
UTG (t3615)
UTG+1 (t1780)
MP1 (t1390)
MP2 (t1365)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A.
UTG calls t30, 1 fold, MP1 calls t30, MP2 raises to t90, 3 folds, Hero calls t60, UTG calls t60, MP1 calls t60.

Flop: (t375) Q, 9, J (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t210, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t210, Hero raises to t1380, UTG calls t1170, MP2 folds.

Turn: (t3345) J (2 players)
River: (t3345) 5 (2 players)

Final Pot: t3345

HERO: always 3 bets AKs in tourney play... especially early in, or when stacks are low relative to blinds. (in other words, almost always in SNG's or most small MTT's)

if you are playing deeper stacks then I wouldn't shove the flop knowing you have virtually no fold equity, but with a stack to pot ratio that low shove every time.

If you are playing 100+ bb deep I would probably flat the flop, and semi-bluff that turn as the J is likely to scare him.

[JoseRijo]

Originally Posted by jmc

I would usually reraise with AKs, but I thought MP might actually have a better than average hand. Besides, nobody folds preflop and I'm not sure if it's a great idea to jam a lot of money in preflop and end up OOP in a huge pot.

Isn't this exactly what happened? Online, I'm very comfortable going to war
pre-flop with AK.

With that flop, I think you should lead out. Getting it all in is fine, but you have
greater fold equity *before* your opponents put more chips in the pot.

[jojobinks]

to the original question...on a big draw like that you know you're at worst 50%, and the value in the semi-bluff is if he sometimes folds. so when you say bad players, the only real question is do you have any fold equity?

there are plenty of bad players that will stack off there with Q5...they're making your semi-bluff unprofitable. if you think you're up against that guy you'd like to hit your draw before committing.

in this particular hand, you aren't deep enough to play it too many ways. i don't mind the c/r allin or the lead out/3bet/call allin.

[Poboy]

Originally Posted by jmc

Notes: I would usually reraise with AKs, but I thought MP might actually have a better than average hand. Besides, nobody folds preflop

You have given reasons for 3 betting.










On the example at hand, you have too good a hand that's going to get a lot worse on a blank turn. Get it in while the gettin's good. Nh.
In general, like jojo said, it's pretty much about fold equity. If you honestly think you'll always get called by any pair or draw, then you have no fold equity. However, you can probably (math guys will have to figure it out) value bet small to build the pot. Say you have QJ and the flop is T 5 9 . If he'll call with any 5, any T, any 9, 78, 67, 98/97, you can probably toss in a 1/3 pot bet, get called and be set up pretty perfectly to stack him when you hit. And you can pot control/free card if all you hit is TP on the turn or it blanks. This of course is a much better idea in position than OOP, so you can see what he does on the turn.

[jmc]

Thanks for the comments and advice guys. I'll certainly remember to reraise AK preflop, even if it is in the early levels.

Another question:
If you reraise it to like 250 preflop and get 2 callers, 750 pot with about 1200 in your stack, do you tend to give up if OOP on a garbage looking board say, Q73 or 952 -- ?

[Poboy]

Originally Posted by jmc

Another question:
If you reraise it to like 250 preflop and get 2 callers, 750 pot with about 1200 in your stack, do you tend to give up if OOP on a garbage looking board say, Q73 or 952 -- ?

It depends. But, no I don't give up automatically. The flops I'm likely to cbet are ones with an Ace in them, or something like Q73. They probably don't have a Q, and if they have a PP, it's still an underpair to the board. I give up on 956 or TJ9 or paired flops. This is readless. I'm changing flops to bet or check very dependent on the opponents. There are all kinds of bad, and that would change my decisions alot.