[Captn_All_In]

Okay I am not sure if this is the BEST place for this thread but it seemed that this was a strategy type of question/discussion so here goes....


I am planning a Head's Up Tourney for Sat. 2 guys who played in the even last year are not playing this year and their brother and his son (who played last) all are claiming that there is no skill in this type of tournament there is only luck.

I feel the opposite. I stated that there is an art to stealing blinds, and a science to realizing where you are at in the hand and if you are ahead you need to monopolize on it.

Now I will not argue that there is short term variance and that luck does not play a roll at all, but the whole tournament can't be about luck, can it??

So my question to everyone here is....what are your thoughts on the arguments for skill versus luck in a heads up match?


*While were at it....anybody got any good links for heads up strat or a good book I can pick up for next year??

[jojobinks]

blind structure pretty much determines the amount of luck v skill.

let's say we startted with one million chips, 1/2 structure that does not escalate. in this structure, i'd expect a strong pro to beat me 90% of the time.

in the nbchu tournament, with short levels (15 minutes?) and shallow stacks (@60bb to start), the collective wisdom says a strong player usually doesn't have better than a 60/40 edge.

[Vince]

The keyword is "long run"

One HU match is 95% luck as I would say

[abby99]

I do think that luck can determine the outcome of an entire tournament, and I've seen it happen. But that's the short term. Double- or triple-elimination matches tend to reduce but cannot eliminate the impact of luck on a single tournament.

In the long run, however, it's skill. Except for Mike Matusow, luck tends to even out and over time it's the same for everybody (if you still have a bankroll, that is).

[Lime]

It all depends on blind structure and should also be be based on at least two out of three.

If the structure allows for skill, then of of course it's there.

If the structure stinks then I can see how it wouldn't be worth it.

I would explain to those who don't want to play that you are build the structure to favor skill. (If if course this is what you're planning to do.)

It doesn't really matter if it's heads-up or a full table the structure determines the level of skill involved.

It does of course take skill to know how to adapt to a particular structure but most people would just rather blame it on luck.

D.

[Stevo]

I think that there is certainly a skill element to it and more often than not, a more skilled player will beat a less skilled player. The problem is figuring out what the "edge" is depending upon how much more skilled you may be than your opponent.

Say you are a good bit better than your opponent. Your "edge" (I'm thinking like the house edge in bj or something) might be like 5%. It's really not that big and you wouldn't recognize that kind of an edge in a single heads-up tournament. Thus, the best players aren't usually going to win because of the nature of a heads-up tourney - a 5% edge just isn't going to get you through 8 or 10 matches.

I play heads-up with my daughter and we play deep-stacked and she beats me just as often as not - of course, she appears to be unwittingly utilizing game theory because she mixes up her betting and seems to throw in the exact right amount of bluffs - I don't know, maybe she is just better than me - that can't be.

Anyway, I think that skill plays less of a roll because of the nature of 1 on 1 matches - you have to beat 10 people - skill isn't going to get you through that every time. At a sit and go with 10 people - you can choose your opponent, you can allow others to beat up on others, and I think there is much more avoidable confrontation which leads to luck playing a little less of a factor. There, I think I figured it out.

[Captn_All_In]

These are some great points I plan on bringing up tomorrow...thanks guys.

Keep em coming!!

[BigKyle]

Totally structure dependent. If I play Antonius tomorrow and we both get 10k in chips with 500-1000 blinds to start there will be almost no skill involved, even though I am a big favorite in this one.

If we have 10k stacks and blinds start at 25-50, then he might be a little bit better than even money against me.

Point is it is a lot to do with structure. If I could play a decent structured heads up freezeout with a bad player over and over again I would do it in a second. I am confident that being better than him in a full table will not evaporate in a heads up situation. You still need the same qualities--aggression, patience, timing, reading ability, etc--to win at heads up.

[TX_kiwi]

HoH 2 has some good insight into HU play. He certainly makes a case for skill playing a part.

[BassVillan]

go to sharkscope and search "JohnSmiley1" or "dariominieri". Take a peek at their stats, all heads up, and then tell me it's luck.