PAD erica schoenberg marco traniello disaster of a hand

jojobinks · #1 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 12:26 PM

schoenberg (stack ~ 12k, covered by the table) opens for 600 with AK. gets two callers, including traniello from the BB.

flop comes 47K rainbow. pot @2000.

traniello checks, schoenberg makes it 1500. traniello quickly raises to 3k, schoenberg makes it 6300 (leaving <5k behind???). traniello INSTANTLY calls.

turn is a 9 completing the rainbow. check check

river is a 3. he bets 5k (which is all in for schoenberg).

discuss. what does he have, what can she beat, et cetera. if you watched last night/today, please refrain from spoilage.

osumike11379 · #2 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 12:33 PM

HMM - I didn't see it - I am thinking he had 44,77, or KK, or maybe AA?? But from the OP I'm suspecting he made some loose call with any combination of K,7, or 4 and hit two pair

imthatguy · #3 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 12:59 PM

Pocket threes? That would be a disaster.

dsferris · #4 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 01:50 PM

He was playing 73o strong out of the BB!!! I mean who wouldn't?

I really need to start watching more poker on TV, and reading more books.

99%evil · #5 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 02:02 PM

5,6 suited..and playing loose?

jojobinks · #6 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 02:05 PM

doods, forget about picking the exact hand for now. pretend it's you with AK in that spot.

what hands (plural) could he have, and can you find a call on the river? also, talk to me about the flop and turn.

JoseRijo · #7 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jojobinks

what hands (plural) could he have, and can you find a call on the river? also, talk to me about the flop and turn.

Oh, I am SO good at convincing people this is a call. Well, at least I'm good at
convincing myself.

This is Mr. Jennifer Harmon we're talking about. Pretty boy could have 88, TT,
or my personal guess, KQ. I think its a disaster because she folded after putting
in half of her stack.

BigKyle · #8 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 03:25 PM

I'm guessing the hand would not be noteworthy if AK held up. IMO, she HAS to shove after the min raise on the flop. Cant worry about a set at that point. I'm guessing he tabled K9 or 97 suited for two pair, or maybe 56 suited for a rivered straight.

If he is on a draw I actually kind of like Marco's play, because you call the reraise on the flop to buy yourself a free river card (which he did). So if you have a straight draw or middle pair or a runner runner flush draw to go along with one of those he gets the river for less than he would if he did not call the raise on the flop and waited to face a big bet on the turn.

imthatguy · #9 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 03:43 PM

Well, I'm pretty sure I'd make the call there and hope he had a weak K. So much invested, I have no moves left.

jmc · #10 (**permalink**) 05-13-2008, 04:02 PM

K74?

I guess the c/r on the flop could be 7x, 88+, 65, 77 or 44.
However, after the c/r and 3-bet to 6300, I'd guess Marco would be folding 7x,88-QQ (although QQ+ would be unlikely given the preflop action), unless 3.5:1 was too tempting w/ an underpair. I don't really understand the bet sizing here -- erica is essentially pot committed, but all her chips aren't in the middle.

On the turn, it goes check/check, which doesn't seem to say a whole lot -- i'm surprised that erica didn't push in given that it's 15k in the pot and she has 5k left. The time for pot control was before she got 1/2 her stack involved.

On the river, it's a very difficult to call considering that your opponent probably has 77, 44 or 65 for the straight. Unless Marco is known for making weird flop calls and weird river bluffs, I don't see how AK can be any good here.