[ace-in-space]

For those of you who have been keeping records I would like to know what you think a good but not great player can win at $1/$3 or $2/$3 NLHE based on the following parameters:

1. Brick and Mortar, up to $3 drop per hand, about 30 hands per hour. Tip almost always $1 per pot won (say any one containing $30 or more, not counting any uncalled bets.)

2. Against mostly inferior competition (maybe 2 decent players and the rest are not clueless but bad.)

3. 7 to 10 handed.

4. Players can buy in between $100 and $300.

I know the results will fluctuate but I think after you have 1,000 hours of live play you should be able to establish a win rate.

Please list the win rate as BB/hr. For example if you think you can win an average of $30 per hour it would be 10 BB/hr.

[xtwalker]

Originally Posted by ace-in-space

if you think you can win an average of $30 per hour it would be 10 BB/hr.

Think you nailed it... a good, but not great player in a B&M can get around 10 BB/hr over a large sampling.

[jbones]

Originally Posted by xtwalker

Think you nailed it... a good, but not great player in a B&M can get around 10 BB/hr over a large sampling.

That seems extremely high.

Then again, if a friend came back from the casino and told me he made $60 in 3 hrs at 200nl I probably wouldn't be impressed at all.

I think over very many hands, though, 10BB/hr is excellent and probably not attainable depending on the exact # of hands.

[Quads]

10 BB / Hr is *stellar* once you factor in variance.
I think the expectation for a 'solid' player is less.

[xtwalker]

I play similar stakes. $3/5 NL with a $300 max buy-in. I consider myself a good player, but far from great, and I have averaged 12 BB/hr since 1 September when I changed how I record my sessions and win rates. Not meant as a brag, and I know that I have been running hot over that period and have only had 2 bad sessions out of the last 12. But I also know players that have better returns over far larger samplings.

That information from my experience, combined with what I have watched a lot of "good" and "great" players return tells me that 5-10 BB/hr is an expectable long term return from a "good" player in a loose live game in a B&M.

If you plan to play weekday afternoons and sit at rock gardens you won't be anywhere near that rate, but if you hit evening crowds on weekends, practice table selection, and do some fishing it is very attainable.

[Rich G]

I thought that 10BB/hr was high, but after thinking back my last few months it seems to be at the least what to shoot for and attainable. I play very tight and I am unable to play more than about 4 hours any week usually 2 hours at a time after work. Playing very TAG my wins are at average $50-70 per 2/hr session and losses average about $50 per same session. Winning sessions are about 3:1 on the plus side. Average about $20 /hr win rate at the 1/2 NL. 10 BB per hours. You guess is right on.

My issue is record keeping. I'm leery of writing down gambling wins/losses. Paraniod about it falling into the wrong hands (wife). Not to jack your thread but do you keep paper records or have software to keep track? If so what.

[jbones]

Originally Posted by Rich G

I thought that 10BB/hr was high, but after thinking back my last few months it seems to be at the least what to shoot for and attainable. I play very tight and I am unable to play more than about 4 hours any week usually 2 hours at a time after work. Playing very TAG my wins are at average $50-70 per 2/hr session and losses average about $50 per same session. Winning sessions are about 3:1 on the plus side. Average about $20 /hr win rate at the 1/2 NL. 10 BB per hours. You guess is right on.

My issue is record keeping. I'm leery of writing down gambling wins/losses. Paraniod about it falling into the wrong hands (wife). Not to jack your thread but do you keep paper records or have software to keep track? If so what.

Why be paranoid about it if you're averaging 10BB/hr? Not meaning to attack you specifically, but I've found that a lot of fellow poker players have a problem being honest with themselves- i.e. people who say that they're "about breaking even" when they're really pissing money, albeit slowly. A lot of them think they're really playing breakeven poker. You "win" avg 50-70/session, but lose ~50. This could mean so many different things. You could be running + OR - 10BB/hr! Is this before you factor in tokes and table rates?

I don't think the numbers can lie here:

Everyone has a session where they win a few buyins and that gives us the feeling that we're making substantially more overall than we might actually be- especially when not accounting for tips, rake, and cardroom hourly rates.

The players at B&M casinos for sure are worse than online players today, but 10BB/hr long term seems outrageous. You're playing probably 20% as many hands as you would online where you probably run 4BB/hr? (let's call it 3.3 for simplicity's sake).

Do we really think that the play is SO bad that it not only makes the average winning player earn roughly 3x more/ hr, playing 1/5 of the hands they'd be playing online? If this is all true you can expect to make 15x as much BB/100 live as online. I mean, the players ARE usually terrrrrible, but crap. 15 is a huge factor. We all run bad at some point too. We all will have a session where we sit down, get sucked out on a 250BB pot, buy in again and get cold decked (or some variation of this..). 10BB/hr isn't unattainable because of the lack of a skill edge that would allow that winrate, but because of variance.

[Rich G]

I think that A-in-space (and others) are not paranoid in wondering what an above average player would expect to pull from a 1-3NL game. If someone plays cards as a form of gambling the variance can be crazy and avg wins/or losses hard to estimate, but a "grinder" just wanting to take more out of the game that he puts in wants to know what the reward will be and an educated guess could be made to see what that would be. Anyone pondering this question would seem to be the type to not p*ss money away but looking to see if they're up to the task of playing a low stakes NL game with enough skill to not go broke in the long run

My post only estimates my wins v. my losses in relation to A-in-space's estimates in a very short run. The math indicates an average of 3 up session to 1 down hence 10BB/hr. Granted, very short run numbers.

In reading about structured play (ie. 2-4, 3-6, 5-10 and 10-20 games) one benchmark is the idea of winning at the rate of 1BB/hr. At 2-4 this makes the game tough to beat but ratchet this up to a 5-10, 10-20 limit game and this constitutes making a living. Professionals work those numbers into their play at limit, so it should be possible to estimate a NL number to shoot for.

[xtwalker]

Originally Posted by jbones

We all run bad at some point too. We all will have a session where we sit down, get sucked out on a 250BB pot, buy in again and get cold decked (or some variation of this..). 10BB/hr isn't unattainable because of the lack of a skill edge that would allow that winrate, but because of variance.

Fully agree jbones. Last week I sat down and got into a game for 4 buy-ins within 90 minutes. (pain... can you say "ouch"?) I even got down to $60 from that last buy in at one point, but I played 6 hrs more and cashed out for a $24 profit. If I don't make that turn around my rate/hr is a couple BB lower over the sampling. I know that I have a fairly small sampling at 15hrs/wk for 2 mo's. I have a total of 4 losing sessions in that period, 2 bad, two very minor.

I will say that I have friends who are mid-level pros that make that rate consistently week in and week out over long periods of time.

A couple points to thow out here... the word average shouldn't be considered. I think an average player in these games is going to bleed money in the long run. The good players are going to make a fair amount of money. The great ones kill it and move up quickly.

[Quads]

So am I understanding this correctly, people have a different win rate at different games, levels, stakes?

At $1/2, $1/3 $2/3'ish your win rate is 10BB / Hr.

At $5/10 or $10/25NL is this the same expectation? $100 & 250 / hr respectively?
If no, why?

In a limit game, (for example, playing $15/30) is you expectation $300 per hour?
If no, why?