[Poboy]

Clipper dared me to post some hands, and though he's gone and I didn't really care what he said, I actually had an interesting hand come up.

Villain is pretty tight passive preflop, over 73 hands. 18/5 VPIP/PFR. Post flop, he's more aggressive. He's bluff raised a couple of times against a guy who min bets with nothing. He's more aggressive every subsequent street.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $122.35
CO: $109
BTN: $96.50
SB: $100
BB: $66.95

Pre-Flop: A T dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) Q T A (3 Players)
BB bets $3, Hero raises to $14, CO folds, BB raises to $25, Hero...

This leaves him ~$39, which I expect him to put in next street if I don't put him in here.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by Poboy

This leaves him ~$39, which I expect him to put in next street if I don't put him in here.

b/c of that, i just go ahead and pretend he shoved. in that case, you're essentially calling 50 to win 83 (unless i got that wrong). his numbers look similar to mine, and i guess i'd never made this play unless i had AK; even then it doesn't make sense, b/c i'd tend to reraise preflop.

if we rule out AK and QQ, which he was likely to reraise...

you beat...nothing? crushed by AQ, TT or KJ.

this is the type of hand that i tend to call with b/c i'm stubborn but wish i could lay down. i guess i'd have a better sense if i played shorthanded more often.

[Poboy]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

b/c of that, i just go ahead and pretend he shoved. in that case, you're essentially calling 50 to win 83 (unless i got that wrong). his numbers look similar to mine, and i guess i'd never made this play unless i had AK; even then it doesn't make sense, b/c i'd tend to reraise preflop.

You must have a PFR greater than 5%. 6max, this means he may well just call with AK. He may call with KK, AT or AJ here too.

this is the type of hand that i tend to call with b/c i'm stubborn but wish i could lay down. i guess i'd have a better sense if i played shorthanded more often.

Short handed has more action, so he may just have a pair and a draw. But since he's so passive preflop, he could have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, or KJ.

[TheMightyJim2k]

I think this is a fold. More importantly give me your logic behind raising the flop (I'm not saying it is wrong I just personally don't see the advantage to it). I think writing out your reasoning for raising the flop might help to understand whether or not it was the correct play (again not saying it was incorrect I just think it wasn't correct).

[Poboy]

My PFR is about 3x what his is, so he's seen me raise a decent amount. His donk could be TP, JJ, KQ. If he has TP with a K or J kicker, then he might think he's ahead. If he has JJ/AJ/KQ, he is betting his pair and draw, which is possible because a pair and a draw is a pretty strong hand 6max. I doubt he gets away from AK or a pair and draw for the raise.

[TheMightyJim2k]

Originally Posted by Poboy

My PFR is about 3x what his is, so he's seen me raise a decent amount. His donk could be TP, JJ, KQ. If he has TP with a K or J kicker, then he might think he's ahead. If he has JJ/AJ/KQ, he is betting his pair and draw, which is possible because a pair and a draw is a pretty strong hand 6max. I doubt he gets away from AK or a pair and draw for the raise.

so you just described a WA/WB situation. If he has TP, JJ, or KQ you have him down to 6 outs or less. and you have position so you can manipulate pot size later in the hand (ie if you determine he has a weak hand you can squeeze value out of him). There is really only one hand that this raise is good for, and that is AK. If he'll overplay AK then you've got him trapped, but he still has 6 outs. But if he has you dominated (AQ, QQ, TT, KJ, AA) then you are totally screwed. So when you raise the flop you are only likely to hear back from all of the hands crushing you, and maybe AK. So more money is going in only if you are behind.

I really think you should just call the flop. Preserve your implied odds and try to fill up on the turn or river, and if not get to a SD for $15-20 if you can. Raising the flop will likely blast out the hands that are behind you, but is always going to get you repopped by the hands that have you crushed.

[jbones]

By raising the flop like you did you've basically already decided that he has a pair and a draw and is behind to your 2 pair, because that's all you beat. He easily plays this hand exactly this way with AQ and TT and possibly KJ, though. Played as is I'd have to say crying call, but I wouldn't play the flop as it was played.

[NoFear]

My guess is he has a set. TT

Let us know the out come.

[Blaster]

Many players would flat call preflop with many hands you may be up against, including A/K (top/top), off, & 10/10 (trips), in the BB there , after a raise & a call.
Your move at this point, as it was played by you, is probably a crying call, hoping your "read" of his post flop aggression has you ahead & he's really on a pair only or just a draw.. ....

[dad604]

Altho, I might have also raised with ATo from UTG, I know many higher NL players that would fold AT UTG.