[Irish Se7en]

What would you do? 4 Handed You're the BB with 6d6h.
UTG pushes All In, call or fold.

History: MelbourneJoe won a big pot when he hit an Ace on the river with his AQ vs. an opponents Kings. His style of play has been to push All In. He hasn't showed down a hand (besides the AQ) in the last 40 minutes, just pushing and taking the blinds.

By folding I'm still alive but on life support as the blinds are high. Calling I'm hoping he has two high cards and it's a race.



PokerStars Game #12010621853: Tournament #60943581, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/09/12 - 01:18:15 (ET)
Table '60943581 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Irish Se7en (2250 in chips)
Seat 4: MelbourneJoe (4885 in chips)
Seat 5: pureprofit4 (3510 in chips)
Seat 6: NEH168 (2855 in chips)
Irish Se7en: posts the ante 25
MelbourneJoe: posts the ante 25
pureprofit4: posts the ante 25
NEH168: posts the ante 25
NEH168: posts small blind 200
Irish Se7en: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Irish Se7en [6d 6h]
MelbourneJoe: raises 4460 to 4860 and is all-in
pureprofit4: folds
NEH168: folds

[ipgyst]

He could have a smaller pocket pair than yours as well. Time to take the chip leader down a peg. Push it! (and see his pocket 7s)

[Vince]

If he pushes all the time, he's gonna push the next hands too. And i
t's pretty unlikelyyou get dealt a better hand the next few hands.

[Chipmunk]

You are only a favorite to 22-55 and flipping against nearly ATC. I'd fold even though you have very few chips. I'd rather push ATC next round if its folded to me. I'd rather push than call on the bubble. Live by your sig

[jdunford]

If he's pushing all the time, I'd fold and let somebody else decide to stand up against him on a later hand, and/or wait for a stronger pair or a decent A (since you'll likely have him dominated). Your M is 3.2, but it's not much less than anyone else's, so you're not as desperate as it seems... and if somebody else busts out to him, you're one rung higher on the prize ladder.

Basically, in this situation I'd feel better about calling with something like AJ or AQ than 66... 'cause chances are he has an A.

[guinness]

I'm assuming it pays top 3 and this is a SnG so under this situation I would fold. It could be a race but going out on the bubble with this would suckola. You have 3 orbits of blinds left and its anybody's game at this point according to the stacks in front of you. Easy laydown for me.

Edit: Not easy laydown, but prolly a good laydown.

[jmc]

How many hands has he been pushing?

[Irish Se7en]

Originally Posted by jmc

How many hands has he been pushing?

Out of the last 20 or so hands, he pushed 7 of them.

He pushed at least 3 x's when I was the BB. He pushed my last BB and I had Ad 3d and I folded. Again he could have had me dominated in that hand too but he could have had any two face cards. Also, calling with such a weak kicker wasn't something I wanted to do at that time.

[w16227]

Sng - MUST CASH AT ALL COSTS (applies to most lower buyin games). This can sometimes be difficult to grasp - as MTTs may have different strategies at the bubble. Bubble play is critical to SNG success.

ICM method - look at chip equity for fold and call-win....


Chip equity - FOLD

Player	Chips	Prob 1st	Prob 2nd	Prob 3rd	Equity
Player 1	1850.000000	0.1370	0.1755	0.2460	$17.04
Player 2	5485.000000	0.4063	0.3067	0.1990	$33.50
Player 3	3510.000000	0.2600	0.2829	0.2687	$26.86
Player 4	2655.000000	0.1967	0.2349	0.2863	$22.61

treat equity as a % (I used 50/30/20 for $$$ entry so they represent % of any pot)

Chip Equity - CALL -WIN (lose is obviously zero)

Player	Chips	Prob 1st	Prob 2nd	Prob 3rd	Equity
Player 1	4700.000000	0.3552	0.2948	0.2214	$31.03
Player 2	2368.000000	0.1789	0.2081	0.2563	$20.32
Player 3	3510.000000	0.2652	0.2705	0.2573	$26.52
Player 4	2655.000000	0.2006	0.2267	0.2650	$22.13

your equity increases to 31.03 from 17.04.

so what does this mean? - well, this is used to determine how many times you have to win to make this a good decision.

17.04 = WINRATE * 31.03 (minimum rate needed to break even)


Winrate of 55% is required to break even.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

604,443,312 games 0.016 secs 37,777,707,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.623% 53.17% 00.45% 321412016 2711094.00 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 46.377% 45.93% 00.45% 277609108 2711094.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


gave this guy every hand and the kitchen sink (any broadway, any ace, any pair)

You are still only a 53% fav. Tighten up his range - and you fall further behind.


fold

you will win more in the long run.

[NoFear]

I would fold since you don't want to come out as a bubble. Let other players fight with him.

At this point it is strategic poker be patience and you will get paid.