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Old 08-30-2007, 07:02 PM
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AlbinoDragon AlbinoDragon is offline
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Dealing with variance

I'm getting a little frustrated, and maybe I'm just lot letting time do it's job, but big swings from one session to the next are driving me nuts. The background.

Here as of late, there has been a steady string of down sessions. Playing 2/4 and occasional 3/6 as the tables allow. Yeah, I know they may not be the best games for profit, but I've only been playing for money live for the last year. I don't play online, and have only switched from the donkament of our local tourney to cash games in the last several months. There is a 2 to 20 spread limit game, but I know my game and by bankroll isn't up to that yet (for those wondering... no NL here at all).

Some details. I usually sit with $100. This tends to be more than most people sit with. I actually like seeing people sit with the minimum and keep reloading. I figure that makes for an easier table. A winning session at 2/4 for me might have me walking away up $40 to $50 after 3 or 4 hours. I'm happy with that. Again, not making rent, but enjoying my time and walking out with a little bit more to the bankroll for the effort. (Aside note here, I have a dedicated bankroll that has not had any external input since my first tourney over a year ago which involved a 5 way chop... that and my winnings have served as my bankroll ever since).

In the last few weeks, a session has had me losing 70% to 75% of my buy-in before I pick up and walk off with my tail tucked between my legs. These have lasted on average an hour at the table.

I don't feel like I'm doing anything different. I find myself re-reading "Small Stakes Hold-em" by Sklansky et al. to make sure, and still can't figure it out. I'd say I'm tight semi-aggressive and am sticking to ABC poker from the advice in the book. On the up days, I'm not having to pull anything too fancy off as this pretty much takes care of itself. Just here of late, things have gone down the flusher, and I leave the casino feeling pretty rough.

It seems like I've been getting very few good (not just premium, but reasonably playable) hands. I feel like I'm making good decisions as my folded pre-flop hands would have very, very rarely held up.

Is this just the way of variance and I have to tough it out or is there something fundamentally different I should be doing? Better question, is it all in my head and am I over-analyzing things? It's just frustrating. I'm not looking to make my livelihood out of poker or to make a bunch of money, but I'm really getting sick of giving money away.

Thanks for the advice!
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:23 PM
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Re: Dealing with variance

Most of the time, I find it hard to beat the rake at 2/4. I find I do better at the 4/8 game. When I sit at the 2/4 tables for a few hours, I notice that maybe 1 or 2 players might be up less $100 but the other 8 are down much more and some of them rebuying, so the excess uncounted chips is all going to the house as rake.

I only sit at the 2/4 table if there is no opening at the 4/8.
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:39 PM
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Re: Dealing with variance

it is very hard (actually nearly mathematically impossible) to beat the rake at a live 2/4 game. Dad604 is right that if possible you should move up to the 4/8 game, or put your money online and get rakeback and start grinding from the .5/1 level (be warned that players are significantly better online).

also realize that variance is a total b!tch in limit. I think I play the game better than most and I had a 350BB downswing over the course of almost 30k hands which is the equivalent of a couple of years of live play (it was less than two months online). Luckily I had a 1000BB bankroll and was able to drop down in limits and rebuild, but it takes a lot of patience and tilt control.

So best advice is hold on because variance in LHE is a bumpy ride. Always try to analyze your game and constantly look to improve (sounds like you are doing a decent job of that), but don't get tilty when those crap hands keep sucking out again and again. And as was mentioned previously if possible move up to a game that isn't being sucked dry by the rake.
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