[BigKyle]

Playing a 30-man tourney and it is down to 5 players, which is the money ($405, $225, $135, $90, $45). The stacks are, approximately, as follows:

seat one: 45k
seat two: 25k
seat three: 100k
seat four: 50k
BigKyle: 80k

Blinds are 2,000-4,000. I raise UTG with to 12,000. Seat two goes allin for 25,000 total, and seat four goes allin for 50,000. The problem I have is twofold--not only has there been a reraise of my utg bet--but the guy in seat 4 is a good player who seldom gets out of line. Based on his style of play I don't think he would shove with any mid pairs. Jacks, queens, kings, aces, ace-queen, or ace-king are the kinds of hands I put him on, all premium. If I'm wrong I'm down to 25k and in trouble with four players left. I can fold and have 68,000 left. If I win though, I have over half the chips in play and am likely going heads-up with a chip lead (also knocking out seat four who is the best opponent). Can I possibly fold queens here?

[hachkc]

I think its fair given your read on seat 4. Of course, I'm sure they both turned over JJ or both showed AK and your queens would have held. I've folded QQ in far less important situations in tournies before with little regret.

[Quads]

I'm pretty inclined to put all my chips in with that hand in this scenario.
If you have a second instinct that the raiser or RR *clearly* has KK or AA, then obviously, it's an easy fold. But, at first glance, me thinks YHIG.

My guess:
seat 2: A big wired ace (AK).
seat 4: a smaller pocket pair. (8's, 9's T's)

On the other side of the chip, QQ isn't hard to lay down when you know you are beat.

[Dissolved]

I had this same issue, but the 2 allins were in front of me, and I had 10-10. I showed people watching behind me and mucked. They yelled at me calling me a dumb a.., but it was AK vs AJ. flop and turn were small cards and river was a J. I would have gone out like 15th, but because of the fold I finished 10th. top 6 paid, so It didn't matter much, but 10th when your buddies all finished in the 20's felt better.

[dad604]

If it was me, I would fold in that situation. I would put seat 4 at better than AQ, more likely KK or AA.

[hachkc]

Originally Posted by Quads

On the other side of the chip, QQ isn't hard to lay down when you know you are beat.

One of my better laydowns ever was QQ in CO in middle of CT tourney. Folds around to me in CO, I raise like 4bb with QQ, sb goes all-in, i think for a second and fold, he flashes AA. We had about equal stacks (30-40bb).

[Clipper]

My gut feeling is to fold; but my gut tends to be too tight. I think I would overide my gut feeling and play the QQ as the best hand. It is down to just 5 players, and this is a real powerhouse shorthanded. If there were 8-9 player at the table and I had a decent stack (say 30-40x BB) I would tend to fold. The occassions I have made a laydown like this late in a tourney I have regretted it - I would have won the hand more times than not. And like you said, you would have had the boss stack and be poised to win. One win is worth multiple 4th and 5th place finishes. I think you should have gone all the way with QQ. But I don't think it was a poor play to fold, you had a good sized stack after you retreated. This was an interesting post - decision is close.

I know that on many occassions I have had AK in a similar situation in a 3-way pot, against QQ and a smaller pair and lost. Actually, in Dec. in a tourney at Bellagio I was down to 6 players in a Friday afternoon tourney and a similar situation came up. Player in 2nd position raised, I decided to call about 20% of my stack with AK (he could have crippled me badly if I lost hand, so I wanted to see a flop), then out of the small blind, Amarillo Slim pushed (he had QQ). I had both of them covered and after they called the clock on me I reluctantly called since I was getting decent money odds. The initial raiser had TT. The QQ held up for Slim, trippling him up, and giving him a decent stack. He knew it was time to go the distance with QQ. That old man has seen that situation come up more times than any of us likely ever will. He gave himself a chance to win the tourney.

Interestingly, there will often be two players agaist you with a big ace. Their hands get in each others way, giving the QQ a decent win percentage.

[Clipper]

Another interesting angle is what the money means to you. Say if you had similar stacks in a big WPT final table, where moving up a few spots would be highly desirable (and finishing on this hand would be a disaster - let's assume this is a once in a lifetime opportunity), then I think this is an easy fold. With your stack you should certainly finish a few spots higher by playing very tight.

But if this is just a regular sized tourney for your bankroll (say buyin was 2-3% of your playing bankroll), then I would go the distance with QQ and try to amass chips, improving my chances to finish first.

I think the correct answer to your initial post contains a lot of "it depends".

[jmc]

It's very tough. Based on your approximation of seat 4's range, you're about 50%. If we put seat 2 as being somewhat desperate (any broadway, any pair), the equity breakdown is something like this:
You: 41%
Seat 4: 39.75%
Seat 2: 18.8%

With a raise and a re-raise, you might be taking too much risk with QQ -- especially given your read of seat 4.

I fold, and hate myself.

[Clipper]

Another thing that would factor into my decision was how much time is left at this level of blinds. Say you fold. After going through blinds once more, you will have 62K chips (80-12 you just lost - 6k blinds). Then if they go up to 3-6K or something, you are almost a short stack! (I realize the others are as well - but they will be consolidating stacks shortly and your chip stack will suddenly shrink in comparison) You will be down to less than 7x blinds. Also, the tourney will play that much faster at the next level, with more incentive for people to move-in with a variety of hands. The luck factor gets progressively worse as you go along. In just a minute you are going to have to make a move with just about anything (assuming you know the importance of not getting blinded away - I am sure you do by the way).

If you call with your QQ now you are being offered 1.7-1 money/chip odds. And if you think (as the gentleman indicated in the previous post) that you are a touch over 40% to win, you are facing a 1.43 - 1 odds to win. You have a slight overlay (win odds compared to money odds). I think this further convinces me to get all the chips in with QQ. There are only 2 hands you don't want to see (AA and KK). I think you are seeing monsters under the bed if you fold QQ in this spot.

Another shred of evidence, the 3rd guy moved-in. He clearly does not want you involved in the hand (if he is a smart, crafty player). I would think he has a hand that is vunerable to an overcard, or he may have AK and may be trying to isolate the short stack. Would he not want you involved if he had AA? Maybe. But I think I would have tended to just call (since the short stack is allin anyway). This is gambling a bit. But basically it is keeping you in the pot so I can tripple up. It is worth the gamble such as this with AA to get 50K of your stack - you just open raised at a shorthanded table (that does not imply great strength by the way), so a big raise could easily fold you. I would not want you to fold. I would be thinking, "how can I win the most chips with AA to give me a good shot at taking first place". So I think we can reduce the likelihood of being against AA. This further improves your odds. Your money odds are fairly close to 2-1 (actually 1.7-1) and our win odds are now getting closer to 1-1 since we reduce chance he has AA (down to say 1.2 - 1 or something). I am getting the chips in the middle with QQ. As I said ealier, I have folded this hand too many times in similar situations and regretted it. It is a monster hand at a shorthanded table with dwindling stacks. Leave the big laydowns to Phil Helmuth. He has the reading skills to know when he is beat. I would lay money that most pro players would get the money in with QQ in this spot. Earlier in the tourney you could argue for laying down, but it is simply too late in the game now.