[Big Mike]

Hand on William Hill .50/1.00 No Limit Hold'em

I don't really play much NL ring games, just wondering how you would have handled this turn.

Game #4541748884: Hold'em NL ($0.50/$1) - 2007/06/02 - 16:04:39 (UK)
Table "Inthehole" Seat 3 is the button.
Seat 1: DonLimpio ($29.35 in chips)
Seat 2: Nekoly ($30.35 in chips)
Seat 3: Wooderl ($82.20 in chips)
Seat 4: Villain ($172.58 in chips)
Seat 5: yinchoi ($30 in chips)
Seat 6: poney ($67 in chips)
Seat 7: Lapin100 ($37.50 in chips)
Seat 8: bouffard ($21.80 in chips)
Seat 9: bigmike ($83.55 in chips)
Seat 10: determine ($71.50 in chips)
n-m-s: posts small blind $0.50
yinchoi: posts big blind $1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to bigmike [Kd Ks]
poney: folds
Lapin100: folds
bouffard: folds
bigmike: raises to $3
determine: folds
DonLimpio: folds
Nekoly: folds
Wooderl: folds
villain: calls $2.50
yinchoi: folds
----- FLOP ----- [Kh 4d 9c]
villain: checks
Lucsdad: bets $2
villain: calls $2
----- TURN ----- [Kh 4d 9c][5h]
villain: bets $7
bigmike raises??

Clearly I have the best hand, but how much should I be raising here? There's now a flush draw and a straight draw on board, but opp could be betting AK or a lower set. Since they would be drawing dead or nearly so, I want them to call, but make the draws pay if he's now leading as a semibluff. My impression of this player (based mainly on his stack size, and observation at two tables after this hand) is that he's a good to very good NL player for these stakes.

[jetra2]

I would raise to a minimum of $21, probably more like $25-30. That's a good pot to slightly over the pot sized raise giving him 1:1 or less to call.

Jason

[Harlequin011]

I'd raise close to the pot. Around $17-$20. You're making it expensive here with this bet. No since in building the pot too much. It makes his value bet on the river harder to get away if he hits.

I think hes making a play, but if he raises, you are WAY ahead here probably. Then you can push.

[ACE'S FULL]

I would agree with everyone about the amount to raise here... I would raise $20ish to $30. Make him pay "IF" he is drawing. If I had to put him on a hand I would say most likely AQh, and this is a semi-bluff. Rasie and push if need be. If he hits his draw I reload...

[jojobinks]

side note on the flop:
you're going the distance with this hand, and your goal should be to make sure you can get all in with reasonably sized bets. i think your $2 bet doesn't get you toward that goal for two reasons:
1) it doesn't build the pot enough (so that you can make bigger bets on teh later streets
2) it relies on a HOPE that he'll get aggressive with you, at which point you show great aggression and a) if he was bluffing he'll fold or b) if he's strong he might get it in, which he would have done anyhow if you had been aggro in the first place.

so it might win you a little more if he has nothing, but will win you less if he has AK or two pair.

on the turn...don't worry about the draws. raise the amount you think he'll call and ship it on the river.

[ACE'S FULL]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

side note on the flop:
you're going the distance with this hand, and your goal should be to make sure you can get all in with reasonably sized bets. i think your $2 bet doesn't get you toward that goal for two reasons:
1) it doesn't build the pot enough (so that you can make bigger bets on teh later streets
2) it relies on a HOPE that he'll get aggressive with you, at which point you show great aggression and a) if he was bluffing he'll fold or b) if he's strong he might get it in, which he would have done anyhow if you had been aggro in the first place.

so it might win you a little more if he has nothing, but will win you less if he has AK or two pair.

on the turn...don't worry about the draws. raise the amount you think he'll call and ship it on the river.

Another wonderful post JoJo... Great points. Most of which I didn't think about. I now want to see the end result of this hand.

[Big Mike]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

side note on the flop:
you're going the distance with this hand, and your goal should be to make sure you can get all in with reasonably sized bets. i think your $2 bet doesn't get you toward that goal for two reasons:
1) it doesn't build the pot enough (so that you can make bigger bets on teh later streets
2) it relies on a HOPE that he'll get aggressive with you, at which point you show great aggression and a) if he was bluffing he'll fold or b) if he's strong he might get it in, which he would have done anyhow if you had been aggro in the first place.

so it might win you a little more if he has nothing, but will win you less if he has AK or two pair.

on the turn...don't worry about the draws. raise the amount you think he'll call and ship it on the river.

I see your point, how much would you have bet here then? I sized my flop bet on the low side for a continuation bet, as I knew I was way ahead. If he has 44 or 99, he'll call anything I bet, but otherwise he'll probably fold unless he has a strong K or AA. I'm hoping he'll think I have QQ or JJ and make a play at the pot at some point. Otherwise, if I'm to make money with this hand, I need him to pick up a second pair/trips or draw on the turn.]

[jojobinks]

addition after reading up on your read...

if he's good, a small raise is horrible. he can fold if he has no draw, and profitably draw to his straight or flush knowing you'll pay off.

raising to $21 or so offers big implied odds (unless you plan to fold if a scarecard comes, which i DON'T recommend.) i recommend planning to get it in on the river regardless, and so therefore raising enough here to offer him bad implied odds (immediate odds being less important in this case).

so...
raising to $21: 6:1 implied odds (too good for him to pass up)
raising to $26: 5:1 implied odds (too good for him to pass up)
raising to $32: 4:1 implied odds (just about the breakeven point).

it may seem like a raise that's too big. but here's your problem: are you going to pay off if he hits runner runner hearts? i think you have to. b/c what're you gonna do, PUT HIM on a backdoor flush? are you gonna pay off if he hits some nutty backdoor straight? yes, for the same reason.

if you plan to raise some smaller amount here and then play scared on the river (check call, or bet/fold), then i think you're making a big mistake. bet the larger amount. you'll stack him every time if he has two pair or a set, and sometimes against a goofball with tptk or with a biggish draw. if he has nothing he's not paying you off for a smaller raise anyhow.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by Big Mike

I see your point, how much would you have bet here then? I sized my flop bet on the low side for a continuation bet, as I knew I was way ahead. If he has 44 or 99, he'll call anything I bet, but otherwise he'll probably fold unless he has a strong K or AA. I'm hoping he'll think I have QQ or JJ and make a play at the pot at some point. Otherwise, if I'm to make money with this hand, I need him to pick up a second pair/trips or draw on the turn.]

yeah, you're right, it's not a bad hand to slowplay. but...it's a better hand to stack off some guy overplaying some one pair hand (or a set).

nlhe is quite a bit about stacking people, and much less about getting that extra few bucks out of someone. if he has a set here (or is a worse player than you think), it's absolutely your DUTY to get all his money in the pot.

[Big Mike]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

addition after reading up on your read...

if he's good, a small raise is horrible. he can fold if he has no draw, and profitably draw to his straight or flush knowing you'll pay off.

raising to $21 or so offers big implied odds (unless you plan to fold if a scarecard comes, which i DON'T recommend.) i recommend planning to get it in on the river regardless, and so therefore raising enough here to offer him bad implied odds (immediate odds being less important in this case).

so...
raising to $21: 6:1 implied odds (to good for him to pass up)
raising to $26: 5:1 implied odds (to good for him to pass up)
raising to $32: 4:1 implied odds (just about the breakeven point).

it may seem like a raise that's too big. but here's your problem: are you going to pay off if he hits runner runner hearts? i think you have to. b/c what're you gonna do, PUT HIM on a backdoor flush? are you gonna pay off if he hits some nutty backdoor straight? yes, for the same reason.

if you plan to raise some smaller amount here and then play scared on the river (check call, or bet/fold), then i think you're making a big mistake. bet the larger amount. you'll stack him every time if he has two pair or a set, and sometimes against a goofball with tptk or with a biggish draw. if he has nothing he's not paying you off for a smaller raise anyhow.

Excellent points. I now see I should have gone with the raise to 26 probably or a bit higher. I think offering 5:1 would be about right, considering he only has 7 outs to his flush.