[AceDeuceNoUse]

I was in the $100+25 20k Guarantee at Pechanga on Sunday. Tournament started with approximately 24 tables (must have been abnormally large, people were still 30-40 deep to sign-up when we started play). In this scenario, the table I started at was in was one of the 5 remaining tables, 2 tables paid, lowest payout was about 2x buy-in.

I was feeling good, everything was firing straight, I was making some moves, had the best hands when I needed them. I had a decent table image, which was helped by the fact that our table never broke. Villain was almost a mirror of me, fairly tight, selectively aggressive. He did make several comments about people who go all-in preflop as "not really playing poker", but he did make several ante steals from the button by pushing about 5x BB. Any time he was in the hand and not in the blinds or button, he showed down pocket pairs, always paint.

Blinds were 300-600, 25 ante. I had a slightly above average chipstack for that stage, about 12k. I was in the BB, villain in SB. Table folds around to villain, who pushes all-in. I knew he was looking to steal, since he could tell I was playing fairly tight (I had folded many BB previously to raises). I had villain covered by about 2000. I make the comment, "I should just call you blind". I look down at 88.

What would you do?

[PhilTheThrill14]

I would fold. Keep playing good cards - no need to gamble here.

[TheMightyJim2k]

If villain is somewhat frequently stealing we could give him a range of A5+, KJ+, 44+, and maybe something like QJs. If he is stealing not so frequently his range is probably more like A8+, KQs, 66+.

your equity against somewhat frequent stealing: you have 55% equity

your equity against relatively tight stealing: you have 49% equity

there is about 1k dead money in the pot, and villain has moved in with 10k. you need to call 9.5k into an 11k pot which means you need 46% equity to be +EV. So it looks like even if he is playing tight you can call and have a positive expected value in the long run.

However, you have a decent sized stack, and are still capable of making at least one move before being in all-in or fold mode. Plus you have a relatively small portion of your stack invested, and you are getting ready to move into steal position yourself where you can take less risky shots at accumulating chips. also if you call and lose you are pretty much crippled especially after having to post the small blid in the next hand.

If I felt that this player stole frequently (more than my looser range above) I would probably call. However if he is really playing fairly tight preflop, and likely not making this move without a decent hand I probably fold and look for a better spot. I'm not a fan of calling off most of my stack with a medium pkt pair preflop unless I feel I have a very good chance of being a decent favorite. In this spot I don't feel so great about the 8s and I would feel that my ability to make other moves to accumulate chips with my above average stack in the tourney is more valuable than my opportunity to accumulate a bunch right here.

but I could be totally wrong.

so give your description of the player I most likely fold.

[FL70]

The most important pieces of information for me:

1. I was feeling good, everything was firing straight...

2. Villain was...fairly tight, selectively aggressive.

Fold and keep playing. You have time to wait to get your chips in better.

[Quads]

Fold.

[AceDeuceNoUse]

Why weren't you guys in my head on Sunday?

Maybe it was hubris, maybe it was my gut being right the whole night. I insta-called. If I had taken the extra 5 seconds and thought it through, I probably would have folded, as everyone has said. There was still plenty of time for a better position with the best of it. I have made a mantra out of "look left, look at the pot, repeat, then act"; I don't know why I didn't pause.

Villain had KJo. He was making a play. Right read, but turns out it was the wrong call.

I was feeling slightly relieved, but only for about 4 seconds. Flop came KJJ.

Crippled, I limped along and pushed w/AT, busted out to QQ.

TMJ2k, do you make those calculations in your head at the table as well? I am stupefied by your analysis, as it was spot on. I am not worthy....

I appreciate the feedback, that call bothered me the whole way home. At least my poker-buddy (also my ride) was there to commiserate - he was card dead and busted early.

This was my first live NLHE tournament at $100+ (significantly fewer donks than at the $50 level, or so it seemed), my fourth tournament overall. If nothing else, it restored some confidence in my game (NLHE is usually a waiting game for me until Omaha/8 or Stud/8 seats open). Even though I didn't get paid, I feel I gained from the experience. Needless to say, I will remember to temper my gut feelings with better situational awareness (need to get me some of those commemorative Danneman pocket sticky-notes).

Cheers!

[TheMightyJim2k]

Originally Posted by AceDeuceNoUse

TMJ2k, do you make those calculations in your head at the table as well? I am stupefied by your analysis, as it was spot on. I am not worthy....

I use Pokerstove for the exact numbers, but once you run a few simulations based on situations you have experienced you get a feel for what kind of value your hand really has in these spots. It is a great tool and everyone should take advantage of the free download (just google pokerstove).

If I had been sitting at the table I probably would have guessed that my hand had a little more than 50% equity, so calling would be +EV, but put my whole tourney at risk. I wouldn't have had the exact numbers, but running hands in the past would have told me about where I was, and I most likely would have made the same decision and folded.

There is a positive to take away from this though...you actually made a +EV decision, which is never terrible. Considering the villains stealing range (assuming KJo is at the low end) you probably had about 55% equity and a dead money overlay because of the blinds. So your call wasn't bad, but as others (and you) have said you probably could have picked some better spots with your above average sized stack where you wouldn't have been flipping for your tourney. But if the blinds were moving really fast then the decision to call looks pretty reasonable.

one good lesson I heard gavin smith give on an episode of PokerWire radio was to remember when making these tough decisions with an average sized stack, that if you win the hand you are still quite a ways from making big money, but if you lose the hand you are done. So if you think you can find better spots to chip up and make moves then it is ok to wait.

good hand and post. thanks for sharing.

[tomb1]

Originally Posted by AceDeuceNoUse

Villain had KJo. He was making a play. Right read, but turns out it was the wrong call.

I appreciate the feedback, that call bothered me the whole way home.

The Mighty, Mighty J2K said it best -- it was a good call. So "the call" shouldn't bother you. You were 55/45 ahead. "The flop" was pretty crappy, and your luck could bother you, but you made the right read and a decent call. Sure, even with the right read, you couldn've folded for other reasons (stack, tourney position, whatever) but the odds said call and call you did.

He made a questiomable move and you caught him. Then he got lucky. Next game!

[tomb1]

Originally Posted by AceDeuceNoUse

Villain had KJo. He was making a play. Right read, but turns out it was the wrong call.

I appreciate the feedback, that call bothered me the whole way home.

The Mighty, mighty J2K said it best -- it was a good call. So "the call" shouldn't bother you. You were 55/45 ahead. "The flop" was pretty crappy, and your luck could bother you, but you made the right read and a decent call. Sure, even with the right read, you couldn've folded for other reasons (stack, tourney position, whatever) but the odds said call and call you did.

He made a questiomable move and you caught him. Then he got lucky. Next game!

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

one good lesson I heard gavin smith give on an episode of PokerWire radio was to remember when making these tough decisions with an average sized stack, that if you win the hand you are still quite a ways from making big money, but if you lose the hand you are done. So if you think you can find better spots to chip up and make moves then it is ok to wait.

yeah, this is an easy fold for pretty much that reason. going broke is much much worse than doubling up is good.

this is a tiny EV edge...and you shouldn't be pushing tiny EV edges this early, with this little already committed.