whats the actual odds of ...

miandsh2000 · #1 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 07:43 AM

someone having AA against a KK seven handed?

200 Motels · #2 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 08:42 AM

3720:1

Wait, that's the odds of successfully navigating an asteroid field.

Seriously though. It's prolly about the same.

jojobinks · #3 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 10:07 AM

it's about 20:1 in a full ring.

slightly longer 7 handed...i dunno 23:1?

julian · #4 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 10:34 AM

he means having AA vs KK which is in the thousands

Quads · #5 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 10:35 AM

1:1 if you treat each event in a separate manner.

jojobinks · #6 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by julian

he means having AA vs KK which is in the thousands

no sir.

an explanation of the math

tmpa2001 · #7 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jojobinks

no sir.

an explanation of the math

I agree, yet disagree.

3.42% is the probability that in a 7 handed game, GIVEN that you are holding KK, an opponent has AA.

I think that the OP is asking what are the chances that KK faces AA in a seven handed game.

This would be the probability of any player being dealt KK multiplied times the probability above.

The probability of being dealt a specific pair is 0.453%.

So the probability of Aces facing kings would be: 0.453% x 3.42% = 0.015% or roughly 1 in 6450

Sparky823 · #8 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 01:47 PM

Time to melt your brain...

What is the chance of this happening twice in four hands with the same exact players holding the KK and AA respectively? Read my post (My boo-hoo story) for the background reason for me asking.

Maybe I'll just call Steven Hawking.

plz · #9 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 01:53 PM

If the question is phrased as "I have KK in a 7-handed game. What are the odds that at least one opponent has AA?" then the answer is 2.9322%, or about 33:1. This is typically the way the question is asked, since you want to know the probability that someone has aces against your kings. The calculation of these odds is a bit intricate but understandable - I can post an explanation if anyone is interested.

The odds would be different if the question were "What is the probability that, on any specific deal in a 7-handed game, exactly one player has AA and exactly one other player has KK?" since you're starting without the assumption that someone already has a pair of kings. I haven't calculated these odds but this situation doesn't seem very interesting except in the abstract...

If you ask the question "Tonight I will have pocket kings twice in a 7-handed game. What are the odds that both times, the same opponent will have pocket aces?" I would calculate it as follows: From my odds above, the first time is about 33:1 = 1/34. The odds of it happening twice is 1/34 * 1/34 *1/6, since there is only a 1/6 probability that the second time it happens, it's the same opponent as the first time. This is about 6978:1. Pretty long odds.

miandsh2000 · #10 (**permalink**) 05-05-2007, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by plz

If the question is phrased as "I have KK in a 7-handed game. What are the odds that at least one opponent has AA?" then the answer is 2.9322%, or about 33:1. This is typically the way the question is asked, since you want to know the probability that someone has aces against your kings. The calculation of these odds is a bit intricate but understandable - I can post an explanation if anyone is interested.

The odds would be different if the question were "What is the probability that, on any specific deal in a 7-handed game, exactly one player has AA and exactly one other player has KK?" since you're starting without the assumption that someone already has a pair of kings. I haven't calculated these odds but this situation doesn't seem very interesting except in the abstract...

If you ask the question "Tonight I will have pocket kings twice in a 7-handed game. What are the odds that both times, the same opponent will have pocket aces?" I would calculate it as follows: From my odds above, the first time is about 33:1 = 1/34. The odds of it happening twice is 1/34 * 1/34 *1/6, since there is only a 1/6 probability that the second time it happens, it's the same opponent as the first time. This is about 6978:1. Pretty long odds.

correct. should have phrased it as "I have KK in a 7-handed game. What are the odds that at least one opponent has AA?"

not that you answered that question as 33:1, have another question -

how does the probablility change when 2 player after me fold, leaving only 5 possible players (5 includes me) in the hand? does it drop to 1.9% at this point?

AND - im interested in your explanation of the first situation - and the second if you care to expand on one for that also.

thx