[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

this is painting a very slanted view of the actual hand and play. Couple of things. Assuming the payouts are for only a few people in a tourney this small there is nothing wrong with trying accumulate some chips before it becomes push or fold time and you are no longer playing poker.

Secondly simplifying this to a no-pair hand that we went broke on is just not true. He flopped a huge draw with 15 outs twice (and possibly more than that if we catch a pair on the turn). With an M of 17 in this situation you can't play these hands slow. If you try to just check call until you hit you are killing all of your implied odds as it is obvious what you are doing. And most likely a player with KK is going to price us out of drawing anyway. However folding this kind of hand is also just silly on that flop. Especially when we consider that if we put villain on a reasonable range (pkt pairs 66+, Ak-AT, KQ, KJ etc) we have even more equity on the flop, and HUGE fold equity. A lot of hands villain raises with pf are just going to muck to a lead bet or a check raise. And if not then we still are getting odds to draw. This is not simply a QT no pair hand, it is a huge drawing hand with a chance to take a commanding chip lead where stack size and fold equity make playing it fast the correct play IMHO.

I will agree on one thing though, this play is much much better in a large field MTT with a relatively fast structure where you MUST be constantly accumulating chips. In a SNG or slow structured tournament you want to make these kind of plays less often, but I still think the flop play is very reasonable.

You can correctly argue that a preflop fold is correct, and we can go back and forth all day on it. My guess that is a pretty neutral EV play based on the range we can give opponent and our post-flop play creating decent implied odds. However I don't really think that you can argue that the flop play was poor. On this flop you really need to be maximizing your fold equity knowing that you have a huge fall backs if you get called.

Now jojo is a better tourney player than me and much more experienced, so I think that brett should definitely take that into consideration when reading these arguments, but I still stand by above.

i agree with TMJ on most points...which is why i'm mostly arguing to not get involved in this situation.

[Poboy]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

i want people to consider that getting busted on a draw not necessarily necessary.

you can read my long post up a ways for more, but mostly, i don't get why everyone thinks this plays itself.

fine, once you see a flop, playing aggressively is fine. but we didn't need to get busted here, by any measure. we started the pot with an M of 17 (i know it's less adjusted for the table size, but please, we're not short stacked). in what world do we need to get busted with QT with an M of 17?

I'd like to double up. What other kind of hand is more likely to do that?

Preflop, against one opponent, QTs strikes me as a pretty good hand. I don't have any Pokerstove numbers, but QTs against a random hand... it's gotta have some pretty good equity.

[yeltzen]

Originally Posted by Poboy

I'd like to double up. What other kind of hand is more likely to do that?

Preflop, against one opponent, QTs strikes me as a pretty good hand. I don't have any Pokerstove numbers, but QTs against a random hand... it's gotta have some pretty good equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,390,289,600 games 0.078 secs 107,567,815,384 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.468% 58.17% 01.30% 4880685140 108815304.00 { QTs }
Hand 1: 40.532% 39.24% 01.30% 3291973852 108815304.00 { random }



I guess it could be argued that his hand isn't exactly random since he raised, but your calling odds are still pretty sweet against the likely hands from a guy who plays like the OP described.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by Poboy

I'd like to double up. What other kind of hand is more likely to do that?

Preflop, against one opponent, QTs strikes me as a pretty good hand. I don't have any Pokerstove numbers, but QTs against a random hand... it's gotta have some pretty good equity.

mmm...when i see QTs, i think "doubleup."

here's what stove says against the loose raiser (let's say he reraises you 18% of the time, which is huge):
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,493,129,088 games 0.005 secs 298,625,817,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.353% 39.89% 00.46% 595639380 6884352.00 { QTs }
Hand 1: 59.647% 59.19% 00.46% 883721004 6884352.00 { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QJs, A7o+, KJo+ }

now, for a more reasonable reraise range, 10%:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

787,659,840 games 0.005 secs 157,531,968,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.387% 35.98% 00.41% 283405728 3203676.00 { QTs }
Hand 1: 63.613% 63.21% 00.41% 497846760 3203676.00 { 88+, A8s+, KQs, A9o+ }

even with the tighter range, you are getting pot odds to call the raise, i spose. but you're also going bust 2/3 times.

why did we get involved again? to pick up 150 chips? come on...

[Poboy]

Sorry, I should've been clearer. I meant opening for a raise. We don't know yet that he'll raise/re-raise. When it folds to us in the SB, he's just got a random hand.




Aren't you always looking for an opportunity to double up? I meant that most of the time, doubling up happens with less than huge preflop/flop hands. To get back to the hand, the more I think about it, the more I think the initial bet should've been all-in. If the KK guy smooth calls and raises the turn, he could give poorer odds.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by Poboy

Aren't you always looking for an opportunity to double up? I meant that most of the time, doubling up happens with less than huge preflop/flop hands.

maybe. but that doesn't mean you look for opportunities to sneak into pots with bad hands.

as far as QTs being better than average, yeah that's true. what if it were a 51-49 favorite? would you get it in preflop? cash games are for pushing small edges. tournaments are for accumulating while avoiding going broke.

in other words, if all you need is to be a favorite, then you push q5o:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.120% 47.96% 02.16% 12071696952 543963330.00 { Q5o }
Hand 1: 49.880% 47.72% 02.16% 12011245188 543963330.00 { random }

if you need more than to just be a favorite, then you have to start weighing the payoff (picking up the blinds) with the risk (your stack).

[yeltzen]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

even with the tighter range, you are getting pot odds to call the raise, i spose. but you're also going bust 2/3 times.

You'd be a great politician.

You do NOT go bust 2/3 times. If you use only this hand's situation, you have to figure out how often a flush draw, oesd, two overcard flop comes. Then, 50% of that time, you go bust. My guess is that's a very small percentage of the time.

Or figure out how often any flop comes up that you'd be willing to commit all your chips on. Then do the percentages from there. That's just ridiculous to say you're going to go bust 2/3 times based on the preflop numbers.

[Poboy]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

as far as QTs being better than average, yeah that's true. what if it were a 51-49 favorite? would you get it in preflop? cash games are for pushing small edges. tournaments are for accumulating while avoiding going broke.

Unless I'm reading it wrong, yeltzen's #'s looks like QTs is 59% against a random hand. I wouldn't call that a small edge. Not great, but I'll never win the tournament looking to be a big favorite only. It's better than a coin flip at least, and we've all taken those shots. Naturally, as my hand got closer to even or less, I would be less inclined to play.

if you need more than to just be a favorite, then you have to start weighing the payoff (picking up the blinds) with the risk (your stack).

Fair enough. I'm also going to weigh the opposing player before I do anything. In addition to the likelihood he has jack and folds, a guy who likes to play flops is going to call my raise with a worse hand a fair amount, so I can potentially win more than just the blinds. Or I could flop big, and stack the dude.

Ultimately, I don't think the preflop play is a big deal. Someone like you is content to pass on this hand, someone like megabit might be inclined to raise it.

[BrettButter]

I love this place.

It's amazing the detail you guys are getting into with this hand, and the big contrast in styles between a couple of players.

[TheMightyJim2k]

ok question....

same blinds and same stack sizes;

if you have QTs in BB and aggressive player raises from the small blind to 300, so you are getting a 2-1 call and have position for the rest of the hand, do you call?