Hand of the Day Page 2. Discuss Hand of the Day, on ChipTalk.net the place to go for your Poker chips and gambling tips. Read it in Poker Strategy General.
Raising to find out if he has a made hand is a bad play IMO. There is too much equity in this hand to want to have to think about folding to a reraise.
If you are going to raise, make it a big enough to make him lay his hand down. Raising 150 chips just invites a call if he doesn't already have you beat. Don't let him call to hit an 8 completing his straight with J9. And if you do make a big raise you are pretty much committing your stack to this hand because you will have odds to call his all in if he pushes.
1) You have the nut flush draw and may still have the best hand. You have lots of outs but with his range of hands, he could have 2 pair, straight, straight draw, made flush. We just don't know.
2) Calling guarantees you see the next card, raising may allow him to push you off your nut flush draw.
3) His 100 chip bet says he has something. Take the turn card to get more information. If the turn comes an 8 or 9 completing a straight and he comes out firing half pot or more I think you can now get away from your aces.
4) There is always a chance that he may not be confident with whatever he has and checks the turn and you can take a free card to the river. Depending on the card you can either put in a nice bet or check behind here which will allow you to see what he does with more information on the river, keeps the pot small and gives you one more chance to make the nut flush.
Therefore, I think Calling is the best option.
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I raise for value. Probably to 400. Frankly if he repops it I'm going all-in. These tournaments don't give you enough play to be folding AA with the nut flush draw in these situations.
Pot Amount post flop: $725
Chip counts
wildhearts69 - 1315
mwfeldman - 1220
Wildhearts69 willingness to call the $100 raise post flop is a must call when he was getting 6.25:1 pot odds, so we still haven't gotten much information about his hand. The raise was too small, there aren't many draws in this situation where the implied odds would say Fold.
2d on the turn could not have helped him so with his check we now have to determine what he has.
1. He is setting a trap and slowplaying. Still with no information about the player we don't know if he is capable of slowplaying a big hand like a flush or a straight. Few online players slowplay such big hands. Also the board is showing 3hs so this is a terrible place to slow play a flush, especially when we know for certain he does not have the nut flush. The pre and post flop raises has to tell him we have at a minimum two over cards, so if he has a straight or is drawing to a straight we are possibly drawing to a larger straight. My assessment is the texture of the board tells me he is not setting a trap. 10%
2. He has a set or two pair... No preflop raise would not lead me to put him on a set unless he wanted to see the flop real cheap with low or medium pocket pairs. 30%
3. He has a pair and thinks our overcards he has put us on are no good, but he wants to check down a medium strength hand. 60%
I have assigned a percentage to each possibility and based on my assessment and the fact that we are the only who has shown any strength in the hand thus far I am going to bet here representing the flush and not giving the odds to call if he is on a draw.
I would put in a bet of $350 here. This isn't quite half the pot so we are only giving a little better than 2:1 pot odds and it is only about 1/4 of our stack so if he does come back over the top with a raise AI we can lay the hand down if we want.
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