[cigarherb]

The problem here is you have to work your implied odds as well. Once you go all in (540 in the pot to you, plus another 1000 all in, pot equals 1540) the first guy has to call 1000 so he is getting 1.5 to 1. These are bad odds for a flush draw, but you know nothing about the new guy and he may very well call. If he calls then the pot goes to 2540. This now gives the BB 2.5 to 1 odds. Depending on how he looks at it these might be the odds he needs to make the call as well, plus the chance to take out 2 players and become a huge chip leader. Now you could be up against 18 or more outs. If you bet the pot you have effectively ruined his pot odds, but if the first guy calls the 320 to him the BB has nice pot odds to make the call as well. Now you are left with 460 chips after the turn. If a red card hits the turn you have to bet, but will not have enough to ruin anyones pot odds. Go all in and get it over with before the turn while you know you have the best hand.

[DoubleDeuce]

***QUICK CORRECTION - starting stacks are $12,000.****


I'll edit that mistake in the original too.

[cigarherb]

[quote=DoubleDeuce]***QUICK CORRECTION - starting stacks are $12,000.****


That kind of changes things.

[jmc]

Yeah -- kinda changes things

You want a set or flush draw to pay, but you don't want to end up getting stacked if they do hit on the end. There's 80 + 100 + 180 + 180 + 100 (your call) = 640 for the pot if you call. I reraise and make it big, but not too big -- 700 or so. Also, I'll be very cautious about calling a large bet on the end if another club or spade hits on the end. I'd be inclined to make a 1/2 pot blocking bet on the end and throw my hand away if he raises all in.

I really can't put anyone on a set here -- that person should have led w/ 88 or a set to protect his hand on such a dangerous board.

Your nightmare scenario is of course, if someone has Tc9c or Ts9s and is freerolling to stack you.

Naturally, if you get it all in on the turn, you can't blame yourself for getting stacked w/ the nuts, right?

[Quads]

3,000- he aught to get the message.
Something around 2.5X the pot doesn't give him the odds to call.

[coyote]

sorry completely missed the BB cold call.

ooooh, 12K, not 1200 stacks huh?

I'd make it a grand to go.

edit: although thinking about this more, what sucks is even though there is at most 9 outs for a villian on the flush draw, the problem is that there are effectively 18 scare cards (the remaining clubs and spades) and you're sandwiched between 2 players.

[caveney]

link to your action, and the results please? everyone here pretty much agrees.. i would raise 2x the pot, push him out or hes gonna suck out on the flushdraw. probably one of those nuts who thinks aces never get cracked or hes a CTer and hes got hammer and is going to go all in just because its the golden rule

[jmc]

Here's the problem:
We have a very good hand (the nuts), but there's a chance that we'll be outdrawn (most likely by a flush, less likely by 2 pair or a set). From my point of view we want to do one of the following:

1. Push in now while our nuts are good and most likely take a small pot. This won't work if our opponent is freerolling to stack us (Tc9c or Ts9s). But, if your opponent is an idiot w/ A-rag flush draw, you don't mind his call since you're way ahead (4:1). If he sucks out, oh well, that's poker.

2. Make a reasonable sized reraise (potish) and try to get away with our stack intact on the river if things look horrible. You might get a flush draw to call because your opponent might overestimate his implied odds due to stack sizes. As long as you don't go shoving your chips in on the river when a club or spade hits, you're good.

Betting more (say 2k+) makes it VERY difficult to get away from the hand if we get called. (do you really want to fold a pot close to 5k on the river if a club/spade hits and your opponent bets 3k?)

[jmc]

I just saw the original post.
That's pretty sick....

I was assuming you were playing against decent, thinking opponents!

[coyote]

wow I finally found the results too.