[_GUN_]

Originally Posted by plagueboy

You admit to apprehension, but don't understand mine? I have an alternative strategy that makes poker more fun for me that you don't agree with, so I shouldn't play? You should be more polite.

you can be apprehensive, but still do it anyways. being nervous and doing something anyways is not the same thing as backing out of it.

you actually tried to avoid playing the hand out as an 81% favorite.

even though, I was getting my aces cracked every other hand, I never tried to avoid playing them, by telling my opponents to fold.

there's a saying amongst experienced players, with aces you may often find yourself winning small pots and losing big pots. I always feel an extra bit of excitement/apprehension when I see aces in the hole. You will often play big pots or get no action with them. I'd never discourage someone from going agaisnt them, though.

I don't need to be told to be more polite. If you're afraid to get your stack in as an 81% favorite, then you shouldn't be playing poker. That's not being impolite, that's being truthful. If you won't let the other guy see a flop, because you're afraid of getting stacked, then you shouldn't play poker. Bad beats happen, but you have to forget them and play on.

[Quad_Damage]

Originally Posted by plagueboy

High Stakes Poker 10/16/2006 Spoiler...

So, I was getting so sick of my aces getting busted, that on Monday, I raised 3.5 times the BB preflop with my pocket aces and got one reraiser for 15 times the BB. I pushed all in (only about 3 times what he just reraised with) and told him, "Just so you know if you want to gamble, I have A,A".

I didn't want to gamble and was happy with winning the pot so far. He folded, and I showed the aces.



What do you all think of this strategy? Are you thinking, "Where can I play at plagueboy's table, so that I can take his money?"

You should be willing to go to the felt all day long if you can with AA preflop.

[_GUN_]

if you don't want to get tackled, don't play football.

if you hate the sand, don't play beach volleyball.

if an 81% advantage isn't enough for someone, then I recommend them find something less stressful than Texas hold'em.

[yeltzen]

Originally Posted by plagueboy

The act of going all in in a cash game when I don't have the nuts is gambling.

Which happens so often in poker. Good point.

[2_hotty]

Originally Posted by plagueboy

1. If I bet money in a cash game with the nuts, that bet is not a gamble.

Friday night. I'm BB with 35c. 4 limpers, and I check. Flop is J, 6, 4 off suit. Checks all around. Turn card is a 2. SB bets, I raise, folds to the SB who re-raises all in. I call.

Me 3,5 nut straight
SB J6 two pair

River card= 6 I lose to a full house

I bet all my money with the nuts, and lost. You can't always wait to bet with the nuts, and when you do, you may not always win.

I see what you're saying with your strategy, it just doesn't make sense. You have the best hand preflop. You are getting in good. You said yourself that eventually the numbers will work out, but it seems that your aces have been cracked lately. Isn't that all the more reason to play them here? How will the odds ever even out if you don't play the cards?

You're doing what I've seen happen to a few individuals in my home game. They let bad beats get to them so much, that they're completely changing the way they play, and are extremely passive with big pre-flop hands because they're afraid of the bad beat. They slow play everything and invite action, and lose even more because they're letting multiple people in each pot with them and their big pocket pair.

You're taking it even further, and instead of just playing passive, your actually attempting to let the player know you have them beat, to save them money.


You know what, on second thought, nevermind what I just said, come to my home game. It's in Sterling Heights, not far from Ann Arbor.

[littlebu]

This says it best

Originally Posted by _GUN_

if you don't want to get tackled, don't play football.

if you hate the sand, don't play beach volleyball.

if an 81% advantage isn't enough for someone, then I recommend them find something less stressful than Texas hold'em.

[coyote]

Originally Posted by plagueboy

I know how to play texas hold'em and communicate in written English. Perhaps I don't know how to play "pokah".

Uggggh. A fine acuity for the english language, no sense of humor, no gambol. A real triple threat. You must be a real hit at cocktail parties.

I kid, I kid! But seriously, you can tout your strategy all day long, but the simple fact is that it is FAR from optimal.

What you are failing to take into account that for most, even solid pros, there is a general limit as to what rate you can win at. Depends what game you play and your skill level. But let's say the a decent player's win rate is 2 BB/100 hands over a sample size of say 100k hands.

Well what do you think happens to the win rate when that player gives up the huge edges with AA or KK and the good chance to stack his opponent in order to take a smaller win?

$500 stacks 2/5 NL

opponent open raises to 25 from MP with KK. You pick up AA in LP and pop it to $500 and flip over your hand?

100% x 32 = 32
80% x 507 + 20% x -500 = 305.70

you're giving up $273 in pos expectation

let's say the stacks are too large in my example, let's say they're only $250

100% x 32 = 32
80% x 257 + 20% x -250 = 150.6

you're giving up $123.60 in pos expectation.

I get that you want to limit your variance and prevent suckouts because they aren't much fun. Believe me, noone likes to get Aces cracked.

But it's these huge positive expectation situations that make a good contribution to win rate, and I would expect that passing them up would turn an okay win rate into a lose rate.

I'm sure you understand all the rules of texas holdem, but if you are willing to pass up those edges, then you don't know how to PLAY texas holdem, and you will not be a long term winner in the game.

But hey, at least your Aces didn't get cracked!!

[tripod22]

Thank you for the informative post. Those were good examples.

Can you explain this line though?

Originally Posted by coyote

But let's say the a decent player's win rate is 2 BB/100 hands over a sample size of say 100k hands.

[luckychick]

This is very well explained. You need to make money off the hands that can make you money, to offset all the money you lose from (1) hands that don't have as much of an advantage, and you eventually lose at and (2) all the hands that lose you money that you don't even play - i.e., the price of simply sitting at the table (antes/blinds).

As far as poker not being gambling, this is simply not true. It's so absurdly rare to have the absolute nuts, this rarely applies. If you only bet when you have the nuts (heck, lets expand it to even the top 5 possible hands) you will lose money. Sitting at the table and waiting for you to be dealt the nuts is gambling, just like waiting for 21 is gambling in blackjack. In the mean time though, if you want to be up over time, you need to gamble with your other hands. BUT, you get to pick when you want to gamble, and for how much. Use this power to your best advantage.


That being said....

It sounds like you have take some bad beats and need some confidence back. It sounds like you also "get" that it's best to get your money in with Aces, but some bad experiences have made you gun shy. If playing suboptimally for a very short amount of time gets your confidence back, and you don't fall into the trap of continuing to play suboptimally, I suppose it's not such a bad thing. Confidence is big in poker. At least you will know what you're doing wrong. I have lots of leaks, I just don't know what they are.

Originally Posted by coyote

Uggggh. A fine acuity for the english language, no sense of humor, no gambol. A real triple threat. You must be a real hit at cocktail parties.

I kid, I kid! But seriously, you can tout your strategy all day long, but the simple fact is that it is FAR from optimal.

What you are failing to take into account that for most, even solid pros, there is a general limit as to what rate you can win at. Depends what game you play and your skill level. But let's say the a decent player's win rate is 2 BB/100 hands over a sample size of say 100k hands.

Well what do you think happens to the win rate when that player gives up the huge edges with AA or KK and the good chance to stack his opponent in order to take a smaller win?

$500 stacks 2/5 NL

opponent open raises to 25 from MP with KK. You pick up AA in LP and pop it to $500 and flip over your hand?

100% x 32 = 32
80% x 507 + 20% x -500 = 305.70

you're giving up $273 in pos expectation

let's say my example that you get his entire stack is too aggressive, let's say only half get's in.

100% x 32 = 32
80% x 257 + 20% x -250 = 150.6

you're giving up $123.60 in pos expectation.

I get that you want to limit your variance and prevent suckouts because they aren't much fun. Believe me, noone likes to get Aces cracked.

But it's these huge positive expectation situations that make a good contribution to win rate, and I would expect that passing them up would turn an okay win rate into a lose rate.

I'm sure you understand all the rules of texas holdem, but if you are willing to pass up those edges, then you don't know how to PLAY texas holdem, and you will not be a long term winner in the game.

But hey, at least your Aces didn't get cracked!!

Edited b/c I'm an idiot that doesn't know the difference between "loose" and "lose".

[coyote]

Originally Posted by tripod22

Thank you for the informative post. Those were good examples.

Can you explain this line though?

Sorry I got typing away and kinda left that hang a bit. Luckychick really finished my thought well.

That line you quoted was just a hypothetical by me. Say you are a player who has a win rate of 2 big bets / 100 hands from a statistically relevant sample size (100k hands). My point is, what do you think would happen to that win rate if you started passing up the huge +ev edges you had with hands like AA, KK, maybe even QQ where you have a chance to get your money in as a dominating favorite as the OP described. I think your 2BB win rate declines sharply, possibly even into the negative. This is for the standard small winner, not a pro.

I pulled the 2BB/100 out of thin air, maybe it's too high for a decent but not strong winning player but I don't think so.

Thanks again to luckychick for clarifying my point!