[Dissolved]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

AJ spades
89 spades
overpair with a spade?
77?

i don't have poker stove here.

Bored... (i think these are right...) [Thanks JoJo)

Flush draw
Board: Jc 6s 7s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 62.3039 % 61.71% 00.59% { Jd6d }
Hand 2: 37.6961 % 37.10% 00.59% { AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Js2s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts5s, Ts4s, Ts3s, Ts2s, 9s8s, 9s5s, 9s4s, 9s3s, 9s2s, 8s5s, 8s4s, 8s3s, 8s2s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 5s2s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s }

Trips
Board: Jc 6s 7s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 04.3939 % 04.39% 00.00% { Jd6d }
Hand 2: 95.6061 % 95.61% 00.00% { JhJs, 7c7d, 6d6h }

Overpair
Board: Jc 6s 7s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 70.9091 % 70.91% 00.00% { Jd6d }
Hand 2: 29.0909 % 29.09% 00.00% { AhAs, KhKs, QhQs }

Stright draw
Board: Jc 6s 7s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 78.1145 % 78.11% 00.00% { Jd6d }
Hand 2: 21.8855 % 21.89% 00.00% { 9h8h, 8h3d, 5d4h }

JoJo's Hands
Board: Jc 6s 7s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.2457 % 57.15% 00.09% { Jd6d }
Hand 2: 42.7543 % 42.66% 00.09% { JJ+, 77-66, AsKs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, 9s8s }

[PhilTheThrill14]

Diss - you have to do them like you did the last one - head-to-head. Otherwise you're putting speaks J6 up against ALL those hands at the same time.

[gwilkx]

hands that could make this move that we're ahead of:

AJ
KJ
9s8s
4s5s
Axs
Kxs
67
AA
KK
QQ
TT?

hands that could make this move that we're behind:

66 (we have a 6)
77
JJ
J7 (pretty bad EP limp)

gw-

[Dissolved]

updated my post, First time useing this program.

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by Dissolved

updated my post, First time useing this program.

you should keep going. do one with the most likely hands. all flush draws are not equally likely, right? you should do one calculation with the hands that are most likely to show up.

[Dissolved]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

you should keep going. do one with the most likely hands. all flush draws are not equally likely, right? you should do one calculation with the hands that are most likely to show up.

ok I think I got it.. Need something to do while I watch the WSOP

[SpeakEasy]

No particular hand I was concerned about, just thinking slowly. I was also in a PStars rebuy tourney, and my primary focus was there, being the bully.

His betting pattern and reaction time show a willingness to make this pot very big very quickly. So, I think that he had a very strong hand already, and not a draw. I probably either missed an opportunity to crack a big pocket pair, or I make a good (lucky) fold to a set of 777.

What are his possible hands and why?

-- Probably not. This is a raising hand pre-flop, not a limping hand first in. Same conclusion applies to AJo.

-- Unlikely, since I have a 6 also. But possible.

-- Very possible -- this is a potential limping hand pre-flop. His betting pattern is consistent with a set on a flush-draw board. A made hand like this becomes even more likely because I have played my hand like I’m on a flush draw, and he would want to shut me out with his set.

or -- Possible. I’ve seen people limp in after some folds with big PPs. His betting pattern is consistent with a hidden big pair on a flush-draw board. Same analysis as the 77 hand -- if he thinks I’m on a flush draw, he wants to make the pot big in a hurry.

-- Very unlikely. Who would limp in first with this hand?

-- Unlikely, because he probably wouldn’t push with top-pair, weakish kicker.

or -- Maybe, but on the weaker side of limping hands.



So, lets narrow it down to or and say there’s a 50/50 chance of either hand. Should I call?

-- I’m a 75/25 favorite.
75% x 188 = 141
25% x -106 = -26
My equity is +115

-- I’m a 91/9 dog.
9% x 188 = +17
91% x -106 = -96
My equity is -79

At 50/50 between AA and a 777, my equity is 115 - 79 = 36, so I should call. The break even point is about 60% 77 and 40% AA. If I think there’s greater than a 60% chance that he has 77, I should fold.

This is why you shouldn’t play tired.

[Quads]

Just my style of game, but it's an easy call (for me).
But I can easily see going into the tank on this.

Slight possibility that he limped in with 66, JJ, or 77, but you kill a few of his outs, should he have a set, although you still need to improve, should you, you go house over house.

On the other side of the coin, you lost 34 buck, versus ~200 playing a conservative play.

[TrivialPiper]

Originally Posted by Quads

Just my style of game, but it's an easy call (for me).
But I can easily see going into the tank on this.

I agree, but I am the type of player to not bet (big) on a draw, but to way overplay my hand when I hit 2 pair or better.