[BigKyle]

30 players T10,000, $40 buyin. 1st- $550, 2nd- $300, 3rd- $200, 4th- $100, 5th- $50. There are 5 players left so everyone is in the money. I have played with the big blind before but no one else. The chip counts and my assessments of each player:

Button 40,000 Has taken a few beats, decent player
Small Blind 60,000 Semi-maniac who has played 46, 75, etc.
Big Blind 80,000 Good, solid player who makes few mistakes
Seat 1 50,000 Worst player here, very weak-tight
Seat 2 (me) 70,000 Playing very tight-aggressive all night

The blinds are at 2,000/4,000. Seat 1 raises to 10,000. I look down at JcJh and reraise to 25,000. The button folds and the small blind goes all-in for 60,000. The big blind folds. Seat 1 calls after a moment's thought. There is 139,000 in the pot and it is 35,000 more to me. If I call and win I have 60% of the chips in play three-handed. If I lose I am down to 10k. Here is what I am thinking initially:

Seat 1 doesn't seem really, really strong, to me, no AA or KK. Also, this guy doesn't understand the concept of position, so that doesn't necessarily make his hand stronger.

Small blind is wild but he wouldn't go allin on a bluff with two bets in front of him.

I'm getting some huge odds but if I lose I am done so that makes it tough for me.

What should I do?

[jojobinks]

here're what look like likely ranges:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
big kyle: 28.4112 % 27.36% 01.06% { JJ }
weak tight: 45.6420 % 43.33% 02.31% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
maniac: 25.9468 % 24.07% 01.88% { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }

i don't like it...although you are getting 4:1. i fear this type of situation:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 12.5284 % 01.30% 11.23% { JJ }
Hand 2: 12.5284 % 01.30% 11.23% { JJ }
Hand 3: 74.9431 % 74.83% 00.12% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

or:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 16.3926 % 16.22% 00.17% { JJ }
Hand 2: 49.8677 % 48.16% 01.71% { QQ+ }
Hand 3: 33.7397 % 32.00% 01.74% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

you describe seat 1 as weak tight: doesn't that mean he has a scary calling range? then, combined with the maniac, they're too likely to have too many outs against you.

seems to me like a beautiful opportunity to get away from JJ preflop.

[midnyte13]

go aal in to force seat 1 out. he probably doesnt have a winning hand. the wild guy is all in anyway and probably trying to bluff and win the blinds. if wild boy has an over card which is very possibel cuz all the other laydowns he'd still have to pair up to win the hand and the likelyhood that you see another jack is also pretty slim....i give it 60/40 in your favor. but what do i know.

[Brent]

I don't know, man...when weak-tighty raises, you reraise, someone pushes and then weak-tighty calls all-in I tend to think JJ is behind.

Originally Posted by midnyte13

go aal in to force seat 1 out.

Check the stack sizes, yo...both the SB & seat 1 are all-in now when the action returns to Kyle.

[w16227]

Originally Posted by brentobox

I don't know, man...when weak-tighty raises, you reraise, someone pushes and then weak-tighty calls all-in I tend to think JJ is behind.




Check the stack sizes, yo...both the SB & seat 1 are all-in now when the action returns to Kyle.

I would fold. Raise - u reraise and then an allin and call ahead of you = trouble. Even if you are ahead preflop, there are probably 4 live cards against you and at least 2 are higher than your holdings.

One of them will be crippled or going home on this hand. If it was only one of the players - then call.

Now - lets look at your reraise. Why so little? The weak player almost min raised. This is where you need to PUSH. do not give the aggressive player an excuse to com in over the top and force you to make a difficult decision. If it is 5 handed, me (putting on the maniac hat) would make that same move with a variety of hands. Sure- not a complete bluff, but all top ten hands, AJ suited, 99, KQos and maybe even someting like KJ suited are all fair game. Sure, they may have a higher pair - but pushing your hand right away should get them to fold the upper level junk hands and isolate the weak guy. Your smaller raise left you in critical condition (adjusted M is less than 5) - so you need to make strong moves now.

[BigKyle]

He made the min raise so I did not know how to interpret that. I had not seen the guy make any crafty plays or limp-raise or reraise at all at the final table. Quite frankly I did not know what to put him on when he raised that little utg, though I said he did not acknowledge position at all. I thought if I raised 2.5 times his raise he would either fold or go allin, and I would be able to fold with 45,000 chips left.

Also, if one of the guys behind me made a big play, I could get away from it. I did not want to go allin right away and have the utg w-t guy call me with AQ AK and race for that many chips when I felt I was the best player at the table. It may have been a bad reraise on my part but I wanted to be conservative with two jacks, which, at least to me, are a vulnerable hand to say the least.

So, any more guesses what these guys had and what should I do?

[plz]

I make the call.

Seat 1's hesitation makes me think (as you do) that he has at best QQ, maybe a weaker pair than JJ, or ATs.

The maniac certainly has at least Ax suited, possibly a bigger pair than I do.

Also, there is a non-zero probability that you will beat the maniac in the side pot while losing to weak-tight. In this case you still have 30K left.

My not-so-rigorous analysis:

Case 1:

SB (Maniac): Ax (x can be anything other than Q or J)>>
Seat 1 (weak tight): QQ>>
Seat 2: Jc Jh>>
>>
Probability: 25%; winning %: 19%: EV = 5%>>
>>
Case 2:>>
SB (Maniac): AKo>>
Seat 1 (weak tight): tt>>
Seat 2: Jc Jh>>
>>
Probability: 20%; winning %: 48%: EV = 10%>>
>>
Case 3:>>
SB (Maniac): AKo>>
Seat 1 (weak tight): AQo>>
Seat 2: Jc Jh>>
>>
Probability: 20%; winning %: 46%: EV = 9%>>
>>
Case 4:>>
SB (Maniac): A9o>>
Seat 1 (weak tight): ATs>>
Seat 2: Jc Jh>>
>>
Probability: 20%; winning %: 69%: EV = 14%>>
>>
Case 5:>>
SB (Maniac): 99>>
Seat 1 (weak tight): ATs>>
Seat 2: Jc Jh>>
>>
Probability: 10%; winning %: 54%: EV = 5%>>
>>
Case 6:>>
SB (Maniac): KK>>
Seat 1 (weak tight): QQ>>
Seat 2: Jc Jh>>
>>
Probability: 5%; winning %: 16%: EV = 1%>>

So total EV = 44% and I need only 5:4 odds to call, and I'm getting much, much bigger odds.

Of course, this could be WAYYY off...

[gwilkx]

first off, this is a great hand to talk about.

5-handed, i may have made a different raise. you have seat 1 covered by 20k, so if you can play the pot heads up with him you're in much better shape. you have 20k left if you lose, and will be in the BB the next hand for 4k, so you will need to get lucky on the next hand or two. you'll be in excellent shape if you win all his chips, and if he folds you still pick up $16k and take the chip lead.

a couple of questions. first, do SB and seat 1 know how to adjust hand requirements for a 5 handed-game?

next: are you playing to win, or trying to climb the ladder? personally, in games like this where the buy-in is low, i'm looking for 1st or 2nd. getting 5th is the same as getting 20th in my opinion. because of that, i play the endgame to win chips or go broke trying, but i don't feel bad if i go in 5th place swinging.

from your description of SB, he could easily have a pair lower than yours, or Ax where x < J. the pause from seat 1 combined with the weak-tight description leads me to believe he's sitting on AJ - AK, maybe TT. even weak-tight doesn't have to think too hard about calling with QQ or KK.

all that said, i call. i'm definitely not thrilled about it, but i call.

if SB has QQ - AA, so be it. i'd be 90% sure you're ahead of seat 1, and 60-70% sure you're ahead of SB. you're getting 4:1, which is hard to pass up with JJ. its also possible that you're facing AK and AQ, which improves your equity quite a bit.

i know that JJ isn't a hand to play for (mostly) all your chips in a 3-way pot, but folding here leaves you with only $45k chips left, and you only earn fifty bucks by watching the 5th place guy go out. if SB wins the hand, you're still guaranteed 4th.

in a different situation, i can get away from JJ pretty easily, but getting 4:1 with more than a third of your chips in the pot in a 5-handed game just doesn't add up to fold. again, i'm willing to risk going out in 5th for the chance to take down the hand. you'll have $184,000 if you win - and be in excellent shape to contend for 1st.

gw-

[BigKyle]

I want to get first for sure, second is somewhat acceptable at this point. It's like this; if I call here and win, I KNOW I will win or place. If I fold, I still have a shot but it becomes less of a certainty. I will reveal the conclusion of the hand after dinner.

[BigKyle]

Alright, here's how the hand ended. I was faced with a tough decision. I thought that I had the best hand, but could be facing three overcards or pocket queens. I thought hard about it, but decided that it was a good situation to get in with the best hand. I was less worried about the maniac player than the original raiser, because I thought the maniac could move in with a variety of bad hands, and I didn't really give him credit for a big hand. I am not sure about it, but I call. There is now 184,000 in the pot.

Small blind shows 8d8s. Okay, so I am in good shape against him.

Original raiser shows AdKs. Will have to dodge an ace or a king.

The flop came down 2c 3c 6c, the turn a 2d, and the river 7c. I make a flush and my jacks hold up, and I am in commanding position. I get heads-up with the other good player with a 210,000 to 90,000 chip lead over him, and end up busting him when I flop a flush with Jd8d and he misses it with the Ad3s.

I actually put the original raiser on AK or AQ more than anything. The small blind made what I thought was a pretty bad play. It turned out great though. Very happy I made the call.