[jojobinks]

if you saw it...try to remain objective. if you didn't, say whatever you want.

i'm 3rd in chips. adrake is 1st. adrake plays too many hands, but not by a lot. he definitely plays too many hands aggressively before the flop, though.

my table image is good. i've seen 12% of the flops up to this point.

Saw Flop | Saw Turn | Saw River | Saw Showdown | Won

POKERSTARS GAME #4234854450: TOURNAMENT #20930981, HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VIII (200/400) - 2006/03/09 - 23:20:44 (ET)
Table '20930981 6' Seat #4 is the button

jojobinks - t8585
scottwire - t1519
adrake5 Button - t17108
hachkc - t7440
S.P.S. - t5919
ddollevoet - t3920
phiace - t2275
IRSHLVA - t2755

PREFLOP undefined
jojobinks is MP2 with A K
3 folds, jojobinks raises t1100 to t1500, 1 fold, adrake5 raises t1100 to t2600, 2 folds, jojobinks...

[SpaceMonkey]

I did not see the hand. I push or fold here, and based on your correct read, lean towards push. The only thing that sucks is your push also gives villian 2:1 odds to call.

I think self table image can be overrated. Lately I'm more convinced not too many people pay attention to how tight someone is playing.

[jojobinks]

yeah, i definitely downplay that as well. that aside, can you find it in you to fold or call, alexi?

[SpaceMonkey]

I *could* fold this. Not sure if I would. I've made much bigger laydowns live, but online not so much.

So not only are you up against the chip leader, who has you outchipped 2:1, but a push gives him 2:1 odds to call. I know I'm repeating myself on that, but I'm just thinking out loud. I think the biggest problem here is I believe your fold equity against this particular villian is pretty small. So a push is a straight gambool here, in a sense, no? Because of the read of the villian, he could have anything. Ax, Kx, QT+, JT, 22+. Anything else? What's your equity here on pokerstove?

I don't think I could flat call. But I don't use the stop and go that much myself. What's the plan on the flop if you call anyways? You're OOP, pot would be 5800, with 7085 in your stack. You either push or slow play any A or K, but what about the other 66% of the time?

Thinking it through, I think it may be a fold. That being said, I probably would have pushed with the hand last night.

[jojobinks]

i recognized the 2:1...but sorta...felt invincible after a nice run of cards

he made some laydowns preflop:
here's my guess of what happens if he calls:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.8480 % 40.32% 08.53% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 51.1520 % 42.62% 08.53% { AKs }

maybe he calls with smaller pairs, given 2:1? i dunno...that only helps me though
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.7652 % 43.41% 06.36% { 66+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 50.2348 % 43.88% 06.36% { AKs }

drake if you're out there, speak up! what's your calling range here?

[SpaceMonkey]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

i recognized the 2:1...but sorta...felt invincible after a nice run of cards

Heh. I know what that's like. I wish my computer would flash red DANGER signs after I get a nice run that holds up.

maybe he calls with smaller pairs, given 2:1? i dunno...that only helps me though

Dude, it actually hurts you. (~1%)

Do you have any self arguements for flat calling here? And for my own satisfaction, what's your equity vs. a LAG with the calling range I listed?

[jojobinks]

oops...i misread the numbers there.

anyhow, the looser range is welcomed, although there's no way he calls with that range. if it was true, though, i push every single time.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 67.7982 % 65.65% 02.17% { AKs }
Hand 2: 32.2018 % 30.04% 02.17% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, K2o+, JTo }

[plz]

Assuming that I'm calculating the chips correctly, there are 4700 chips in the pot after the reraise, and it costs you 1100 to call, so you're getting about 4.3:1 pot odds.

There is only one hand that dominates you (AA), and one other hand against which you're a 2:1 underdog (KK). Against all other hands you're either only a slight underdog, or even a favorite.

Unless you're convinced that your opponent has AA, the pot odds are screaming for a call.

Even if you decide to fold after the flop you still have over 5900 chips. Seems like a call to me - at least, that would be my move.

[Fins]

Originally Posted by SpaceMonkey

Do you have any self arguements for flat calling here?

Given his aggressiveness pre-flop last night I'd consider pushing. Given Jojo's stack and getting close to the bubble I'd be inclined to flat call. I'd be hard pressed to lay it down... given another player maybe.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I was at the table, so I won't spoil it, but based on jojo's previous strategery posts in a similar situation, I wasn't surprised when he pushed and showed AKs. I wasn't at the table long, so I had no read on drake other than that he had a lot of chips.

I understand the push. Especially with the stacks and blinds at that point. If you just call, you've got something like 35% of your chips in there and getting real close to pot committed. And if you're going to be pot committed, you might as well exert as much force as possible and give the other guy a chance to fold.

At the same time, knowing my passive tendencies, I might have just called knowing that if I miss, I'd still have 5k or so left. Basically mid-pack or so and hope to fight back from the short(er) stack.

But really, you win that all-in and you're in great shape. Should probably cruise to the final table and well up in the rankings since you could pick apart the shorter stacks. I'd rather take my shot there than nurse a short stack through and hope to get lucky later.