[yeltzen]

We all know I fold too much, but was this one of those cases? Seemed like the typical AA or KK play to me. I just got moved to this table... I didn't know much about the raiser other than that they seemed to be loose but always had a good hand when it was shown.


Seat 1: Player 1 (3820 in chips)
Seat 2: Player 2 (1818 in chips)
Seat 3: Player 3 (4040 in chips)
Seat 4: Player 4 (8625 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 5 (1140 in chips)
Seat 6: yeltzen (5170 in chips)
Seat 7: Player 6 (3035 in chips)
Seat 8: Player 7 (9520 in chips)
Player 5: posts small blind 100
yeltzen: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yeltzen [As Ks]
Player 6: folds
Player 7: calls 200
Player 1: folds
Player 2: folds
Player 3: raises 200 to 400
Player 4: calls 400
Player 5: folds
yeltzen: raises 800 to 1200
Player 7: folds
Player 3: raises 2840 to 4040 and is all-in
Player 4: folds
yeltzen: folds
Player 3 collected 3100 from pot
Player 3: doesn't show hand

[99%evil]

They only raised it twice the blind to start, seems more like a middle to low pocket pair raise. Appears he was trying to gamble at a coinflip with you and get the other guy to bail.

[Strange]

I agree, if you'd just called his first raise and you'd sucked out to beat his kings or aces, he'd only have himself to blame for (relatively) slow playing a big hand.

I'd tend to put him on TT, JJ or something similar, an then if you really wanted the coin flip, its sort of up to you on the night I would have said. 5 minutes into a $5 SNG, I'd push. 5 minutes into the WSOP, I'd fold.

[yeltzen]

Originally Posted by Strange

I agree, if you'd just called his first raise and you'd sucked out to beat his kings or aces, he'd only have himself to blame for (relatively) slow playing a big hand.

I'd tend to put him on TT, JJ or something similar, an then if you really wanted the coin flip, its sort of up to you on the night I would have said. 5 minutes into a $5 SNG, I'd push. 5 minutes into the WSOP, I'd fold.

I definitely figured them for any pocket pair, AK, AQs, AJs, or KQs... very unlikely on the last two hands. But, I have seen that play from a loose player with AA so many times that I didn't want to call off all my chips not really knowing what I might be up against. Not being there long was killer. In my other two situations where I called all in with AQ and AK, I was fairly certain I had a coinflip or better. I really didn't know on this hand. I felt I was a coinflip at best.

[jojobinks]

nice fold.

as per our discussion the other day, i don't like calling this many chips off with AKs. pushing isn't horrible with it, but calling? nah.

there's a pretty decent chance you're 40% or worse...
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.2675 % 39.98% 00.29% { AKs }
Hand 2: 59.7325 % 59.44% 00.29% { TT+ }

[99%evil]

I stated above what I thought he was against, but I'm not sure I'd gamble at that point. Still plenty of chips left to make some moves when you've got a better hand. I've missed too often in races lately to charge into them without pause.

[Strange]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

nice fold.

as per our discussion the other day, i don't like calling this many chips off with AKs. pushing isn't horrible with it, but calling? nah.

there's a pretty decent chance you're 40% or worse...
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.2675 % 39.98% 00.29% { AKs }
Hand 2: 59.7325 % 59.44% 00.29% { TT+ }

That's an interesting set of stats. I'm a noob, but I presume that the significant imbalance is due to the fact that the high PP's interfere with the AK's winning cards?

I always tend to put a PP against two overcards as pretty even with maybe a slight favor to the PP. Clearly this isn't really accurate.

[yeltzen]

Well that makes me feel better.
I feel like a hypocrite because I had a really similar situation a few hands later against Space where I had to call most of my chips, but in that hand I felt like I had a much better idea what I was up against. Plus I was getting over 2-to-1.

[yeltzen]

Originally Posted by Strange

That's an interesting set of stats. I'm a noob, but I presume that the significant imbalance is due to the fact that the high PP's interfere with the AK's winning cards?

I always tend to put a PP against two overcards as pretty even with maybe a slight favor to the PP. Clearly this isn't really accurate.

I think those stats include AA and KK because I put that in the group of hands I thought they could have.

[plz]

There is 5140 in the pot after the all-in. It costs you 2840 to call. You're getting less than 2:1 pot odds (about 1.8:1).

(In the following analysis all odds are from twodimes.net, full deck odds):

- 20% likelihood that he has pocket aces; you're a 13% favorite to win so this case EV = .2 * .13 = 2.6%

- 10% likelihood that he has pocket kings; you're a 24% favorite to win so this case EV = .1 * .24 = 2.4%

- 60% likelihood that he has a pocket pair lower than kings; your winning percentage varies from a high of 49% to a low of about 46%; say 47% on average, so this case EV = .6 * .47 = 28%

- 10% likelihood that he has something similar (AK) or is bluffing (you have overcards); your winning percentage is about 60% (on average) in these cases, so this case EV = .1 * .6 = 6%

Total EV = 39%. Thus you need at least 2.5:1 pot odds (if this analysis is approximately accurate), and not only are you getting less than those odds, but you're also less than a 50/50 favorite to win; so more than half the time you will lose and have fewer than 1200 chips remaining after this hand.

I would fold.

This is the kind of analysis that Harrington illustrates in his books. It's hard to do this level of analysis when in the middle of a hand, but it's insightful to do it later, and the more you do it, the more you can train yourself to do it during the play of a hand.

Trying varying your estimate of your opponent's hands (e.g., 30% likelihood that he has pocket aces, etc.) to see how the analysis changes.