[SpeakEasy]

This one is all about the read.

Wynn $300 NLHE tournament, blinds are 300/600 with 50 ante. 3 tables left, about 24 players total, 9 places pay. 8 players at my table.

My read on BB, who is the Villain:
He’s a twenty-something kid, who looks very young. Fair complexion, blond, has a slight Russian or some type of Slavic accent. He has been very tricky and dangerous, and the bully on many hands. He has been involved in pre-flop raising wars, where he has won because he was the first to push (“You cahn’t bully de bully” was his exact comment as he stacked the chips). He has showed some naked bluffs, and also some junky hands that connected with the board (like 75o to make the nut straight). I get the impression that he has played a million on-line tournaments, is extremely savvy with math and aggression, but is somewhat new to live play based on his mannerisms. Overall, very tricky, very hard to read, dangerous, but could be playing complete junk and bluffing at any time.

Villain is the BB and has 9150. I have 12,300, one of the big stacks at the table, and am UTG+1.

I have . UTG raises to 1800. I call. All fold to BB, who calls. Pot is 6500.

My read at this point: Villain/BB is getting over 4 to 1 to call, and based on his past play, he could have absolutely ANY hand. My feeling is that he has junk.

Flop is . BB checks. UTG checks. I bet 4000. BB moves all-in for 7950 total. UTG folds.

Pot is 18450, and it costs me another 3950 to call. I would have 2550 if I call and lose, which would be life-support.

Call or fold?

[yeltzen]

If you read that he has junk, and junk flops, why would you call?
He knows you're getting rediculously good pot odds to call his all-in, so he's not making this bet with J high. He "knows" he's going to get called, so I would assume he has the goods, even if it's just a pair of 7s.

[Deuce]

Originally Posted by yeltzen

If you read that he has junk, and junk flops, why would you call?
He knows you're getting rediculously good pot odds to call his all-in, so he's not making this bet with J high. He "knows" he's going to get called, so I would assume he has the goods, even if it's just a pair of 7s.

I couldnt of said it any better. The right play is to fold imo

[yeltzen]

Originally Posted by Deuce

I couldnt of said it any better. The right play is to fold imo

This is one of those situations where emotions can kill you.
You don't like this guy... you have a great hand but don't get help... you bet... he comes over the top... you just want to call because you're pissed. But he'll show you something every time.

[jldecarlo]

I agree with the above. If he paired with the board, you have six out to a higher pair which gives you the odds to call. If he has two pair, a straight, or a set, you are virtually drawing dead. Fold.

I wonder about the 4000 bet on the flop. You have Ace high and bet more than 1/3 of your stack, leaving you close to pot committed. You couldn't have played position with a bet of 1/3 instead of 2/3 of the pot - or checked for a free card?

L

[CaptLego]

I suppose the important read here is whatever read he had on you. How have you been playing?

The checkraise allin sure looks like he wants to double up, though. I think you have to fold here.

[tomb1]

Preflop -- BB just calls and doesn't re-raise.

• Is that a tricky move when he has a good hand?
• Or is he just seeing a (relatively) cheap flop hoping to hit it big?

After the flop -- check / raise.

• Is this his typical bullying pre-flop steal, just delayed a bit?
• Or is it a monster, checking to the original raiser with every intention to C/R all-in?
• Or did he hit his junk on the flop?
• Plus you have no pair and no draw, in fact a possible draw against you

I'd love to call the bastard, especially since you have him covered, and that's probably what I'd do in the heat of the moment.

And as I go through the math, I have to give a much higher probablilty to him bluffing, so I think it's about 50/50 that you have the best hand so far. Pot odds are great. But I think it's more likely to get worse rather then better on the turn & river. Aaaaargggghhh.

I call once you get here. Besides, 24th place pays the same as 10th place.

Please tell me you called and kicked his ass! (But he probably had pocket ducks, or paired the trash on the board, or some type of suck-out.)

[Spaceman Spiff]

Boy, even if you fold it you're perilously close to life-support as it is (M~5). But it just seems like this flop is all over his wheelhouse based on your description. I'd probably call based on pot odds, but know that I'm going to have to get lucky. You've got the 6 outs hopefully with the A's and K's and maybe count another 1/2 out for the backdoor flush draw.

[SpaceMonkey]

I guess I have to ask what was the point of the 2/3 pot bet? That was 40% of your remaining stack. Did you think a feeler bet of 2-3k would have gotten at least one call? Based on villian's description, a check/raise all in here does seem like a likely scenario. I think the pot bet + read on villian makes a call your only choice. The only good money is top 3 anyways, right? He probably has an OESD (either end), OESD+pair, 1-2 pair, or pure bluff (obviously).

[Poboy]

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of the flop bet either. I'd rather go after this guy with a hand.
Capt Lego has a good point. What does he think of your play? Has he check raised on a bluff, or does he usually bet out? Has he run any bluff on you before?