[hachkc]

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PokerStars Game #3849886298: Tournament #19123169, Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30)
Table '19123169 1' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Juddd (1280 in chips)
Seat 2: VAMCK (1812 in chips)
Seat 3: M3TH0S (1540 in chips)
Seat 4: KeepItCheap (1285 in chips)
Seat 5: mjm03wolf (1720 in chips)
Seat 6: hachkc (1305 in chips)
Seat 7: Krystyna51 (1430 in chips)
Seat 8: timmay_2 (1888 in chips)
Seat 9: AveryGoodhan (1240 in chips)
Krystyna51: posts small blind 15
timmay_2: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hachkc [Qc Qs]
AveryGoodhan: folds
Juddd: calls 30
VAMCK: folds
M3TH0S: calls 30
KeepItCheap: folds
mjm03wolf: folds
hachkc: raises 90 to 120
Krystyna51: folds
timmay_2: folds
Juddd: raises 1160 to 1280 and is all-in
M3TH0S: folds

What to do? I really haven't been here long enough to get a read on anyone.

[Strange]

I'd probably put him on AJ or something like it....certainly doesn't want the action.

In most cases I'd call with QQ.

Or perhaps someone that REALLY hates getting aces cracked?

[coyote]

limp-reraised.... boy you could easily make the argument that it's AA or KK, but you never can tell in these things. I'm just not disciplined enough to lay down QQ unless I have a really good read. I call and am not surprised to see AA, KK or another smaller pocket pair, high Ace looking to push you off the hand.

[Spaceman Spiff]

The limp-reraise is usually a good sign of AA or KK. Just seems early to be doing that. There's not THAT much in the pot. Sounds like someone is getting tricky with AA or KK and thinks they found a raiser that will call them. At this stage of the tourney, I'd say let it go. Especially without any idea of whether or not this guy is sophisticated enough to make the limp-reraise play with other hands.

At best maybe he has AK. Even then we're just racing. For me, that's too early to race for everything.

[hachkc]

Real money

[plz]

All things being equal (i.e., no real read on the all-in bettor) I would analyze this situation as follows: You're an 80% underdog to AA or KK. You're a 55% favorite to AK, and about a 70% favorite to Ax (including AQ). You're an 80% favorite to most other hands (smaller pairs, undercards).

What are the relative probabilities of the above possibilities? First, why would the bettor go all in? I would most likely put him on a middle pair (JJ or worse) or possibly AK. Let's say it's 70% likely he has a lower pair or undercards, and 10% for each of AA, KK, and AK. Then your EV is about 56% + 2% + 2% + 5.5% = 66% (approximately). In this scenario, you're a 2:1 favorite to win, so you need the inverse pot odds (1:2) to call his bet. (Note that it's NEVER possible to have worse than 1:1 odds when you call an all-in bet.)

There is 1500 in the pot and it costs you 1050 to call - about 3:2 odds. So if you believe the above analysis, you must call.

Note that if you believe the all-in bettor had a higher probability of having AA, KK, or AK, then your response might change. For example, he may have KK and be deathly afraid of being called by Ax, since an ace on the board will beat him. If you put him on a 40% likelihood of holding KK, 10% AA, 10% AK, and 40% on the remaining hands, then your EV is 1.2% + 2% + 5.5% + 32% = 41%. You're a 3:2 underdog in this scenario, and the pot odds are about the same, so in this scenario it's a coin flip whether or not you should call.

In general, though, it's going to be tough to lay down QQ and if you get busted, that's poker.

[hachkc]

Rest of hand history.

hachkc: calls 1160
*** FLOP *** [2d 2s 7s]
hachkc said, "nh"
*** TURN *** [2d 2s 7s] [6d]
*** RIVER *** [2d 2s 7s 6d] [Ts]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Juddd: shows [Ah Ad] (two pair, Aces and Deuces)
hachkc: shows [Qc Qs] (two pair, Queens and Deuces)
Juddd collected 2635 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2635 | Rake 0
Board [2d 2s 7s 6d Ts]
Seat 1: Juddd showed [Ah Ad] and won (2635) with two pair, Aces and Deuces
Seat 2: VAMCK folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: M3TH0S folded before Flop
Seat 4: KeepItCheap folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: mjm03wolf folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: hachkc (button) showed [Qc Qs] and lost with two pair, Queens and Deuces
Seat 7: Krystyna51 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: timmay_2 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: AveryGoodhan folded before Flop (didn't bet)


My thought process was that bet this early says I don't want a caller which made me think a smaller PP like 99-JJ and at worst AKs. For AA or KK, I would have expected an initial raise or a limp-smaller reraise so I called. It really was to early to commit my stack in hindsight but move on. Personally, I don't like being to cute with AA or KK cause I always seem to get burned so I sometimes discount other folks ability to get cute with them.

Plus this is ties in nicely with QQ related post from earlier.

sigh

[yeltzen]

Well, you beat me to it in your own post, but this is pretty much the exact same situation I had in my QQ hand. In my hand, I was right to call, but you had hardly anything invested in this pot, so I probably would have folded in your spot since it looks like it was early in the tournament. His most likely hands are AA, KK, JJ, TT, AK, AQs, AJs... two of those hands have you crushed and one has you at 50/50. I wouldn't take the risk that he has one of the other four.

[GabeManis]

Some of the analysis here is pretty bad... When someone limps and then reraises all-in, they usually have AA or sometimes KK. When you get raised in a tourney with the nuts it is not uncommon to go all in (which is contrary to what someone might do in a cash game). There is an indication that you might get called - so you push. Here, he saw that he had the nuts, saw a raise and decided to go all in.

QQ is a nice hand to see, but you have to be ready to fold it in both tourney and cash games. I had to fold it this past weekend pre-flop after there being over 500 in the pot... It hurts, but it saved me another 500. There are times when you know you are beat and there are times when you think you are beat. The trick is doing the same thing in both circumstances. Some of the best advice I ever received was, "Its better to fold a winner than play a looser."

[yeltzen]

Originally Posted by GabeManis

Some of the best advice I ever received was, "Its better to fold a winner than play a looser."

I guess that advice came from the guy that finished one spot out of the money in last year's WSOP?