[CaptLego]

I'm curious how the average M changes as a tourney progresses.
(I think this should affect my chip breakdown colorup calculations, but I'm asking here because I think you guys probably have more experience with this, and it certainly relates to strategy as well.)

So, as the tourney progresses, the blinds increase, and players are eliminated, how does the average M change? Near the end of the tourney, it seems to decrease, but how about during the first levels? During the middle levels?

For example, does anybody have the data for the WSOP to fill in a table:
Level Blinds+Antes #players_remaining chiplead_stacksize
1 ?? ?? ??
2
3
4

[jojobinks]

no, i don't. (have data)

in my experience, though, here's what happens:
there's a mass exodus when the big blind gets to about 1/15th of the starting stack.

so in our thursday nighters, for instance, when the blinds get to 50/100, supertight players (me, philly, and others) are often down to 1200 or so chips, and can only go a round or two before it's time to make some desperation moves.

there seem to be points in tournaments, including that one, where players must simply either accumulate chips or die trying.

if we're looking for general trends, it seems that would depend on the risk-taking behaviors of the field at large. the more maniacs there are, the qucker people get busted, and the higher the avg M at each point. the more rocks, the smaller Ms stay throughout.

[insane_irish]

pardon me, but what is 'M'

[jldecarlo]

Originally Posted by insane_irish

pardon me, but what is 'M'

M is a concept from HoH2 (I think). It is equal to your stack divided by the initial pot size (BB+SB+antes if any) for a full table. It is adjusted downward in a short-handed game. For example if the BB is 1000, SB is 500 and antes are 100 in a 5-handed game and your stack is 10,000 then your M is 10,000/2000 = 5 before you adjust for number of players, and you multiply that number by the number of people at the table divided by the number at a full table to get your "effective M" or about 2.5.

It is really the number of rounds (button around the table) you can stick out before you get blinded out.

For an M of greater than 20 or so, you play normally. As your M falls, you need to adjust your play accordingly.

L

[insane_irish]

Originally Posted by jldecarlo

M is a concept from HoH2 (I think). It is equal to your stack divided by the initial pot size (BB+SB+antes if any) for a full table. It is adjusted downward in a short-handed game. For example if the BB is 1000, SB is 500 and antes are 100 in a 5-handed game and your stack is 10,000 then your M is 10,000/2000 = 5 before you adjust for number of players, and you multiply that number by the number of people at the table divided by the number at a full table to get your "effective M" or about 2.5.

It is really the number of rounds (button around the table) you can stick out before you get blinded out.

For an M of greater than 20 or so, you play normally. As your M falls, you need to adjust your play accordingly.

L

Ahh, got it, I will learn about that more in my reading.

Thanks.

[tomb1]

Originally Posted by CaptLego

For example, does anybody have the data for the WSOP to fill in a table:
Level Blinds+Antes #players_remaining chiplead_stacksize

I don't have the actual data for this year's WSOP, but here is the blind schedule if this helps.

$10,000 stack
Level SB BB Ante
1 $25 $50
2 $50 $100
3 $100 $200
4 $100 $200 $25
5 $150 $300 $50
6 $200 $400 $50
7 $250 $500 $50
8 $300 $600 $75
9 $400 $800 $100
10 $500 $1,000 $100
11 $600 $1,200 $200
12 $800 $1,600 $200
13 $1,000 $2,000 $300
14 $1,200 $2,400 $400
15 $1,500 $3,000 $500
16 $2,000 $4,000 $500
17 $2,500 $5,000 $500
18 $3,000 $6,000 $1,000
19 $4,000 $8,000 $1,000
20 $5,000 $10,000 $1,000
21 $6,000 $12,000 $2,000
22 $8,000 $16,000 $2,000
23 $10,000 $20,000 $3,000
24 $12,000 $24,000 $4,000
25 $15,000 $30,000 $5,000
26 $20,000 $40,000 $5,000
27 $25,000 $50,000 $5,000
2 hours per level

This is a fairly deep tournament, unlike the CT Thursday bash, so the blinds do not seem to be a problem versus the average stack size. For people under the average, of course, they have to make a move at some point. In all the hours of TV coverage, it seemed to me that any concern about the blinds was rare.

And "M" is covered very well in HOH-II, including the infleciton points during a tourney where you need to change your strategy. (Not to be confused with Big M or Little M, for you Linear Programming fans.)

[mrticsay]

I "fear" I may get lots of emails on this, but be patient, once I've tuned this I will post to all on this lists in hopes to share and tune it further.

I've put together a very rough algorithm for planning/estimating the length of a tournament. I've done this since on any given night, the number of players may vary, the number of tourneys we play may vary, how long we want to play may vary, etc. Through 6 tournaments, the algorithm has worked pretty well but will never be exact...it can't be.

The algorithm incorporates chip stacks, number of players, blind schedules, M, updated M's as the tourney goes, etc. etc.

Now its not truly an algorithm in that you plug in numbers and out comes an answer. Right now there are a fair number of assumptions and a fair amount of manual analysis. So, besides tweaking the spreadsheet, I have to figure out how to clearly & concisely explain it to everyone.

So, don't PM me about this unless you've tried doing something like this yourself already. Then, we can share notes and ideas. If you are going to PM me with "can I get a copy?", please just wait for a future post on the topic.

Michael