[SpeakEasy]

A week later and I’m still wondering about my decision on this one. I’m just not sure of the right play.

The game and setup:
Ameristar Kansas City. NLHE, $300 max buy-in, $2/$5 blinds, full 10-seat game. This game uses a “75% rule,” which means that the actual max buy-in is 75% of the largest stack on the table, and you can also load up to 75% of the biggest stack if you’re already in the game. When I sat down, the largest stack was over $1000, so I sat with $500.

After about 2 hours, I have a $2600 tower, and I’m the big stack. My reads are absolutely dead-on in this game, and I’m running the table. Using the 75% rule and my stack as the measure, about 4 other players have added to their stack to have between $1000 and $1500 – they’re coming after me. Now this is a fun game!

The players that have added to their stack are loose and highly aggressive, and 2 are very good, sometimes very dangerous players. The remainder of the players have somewhere between $200 and $500 stacks and are somewhat to very tight, and not tricky.

My overall strategy now is to sit on this stack like a hen on her eggs, play tight in early position, loosen up a bit in late position, and continue to make reads on the flop. I’m not looking for high-risk situations PF – I can continue to gather chips by outplaying the table.

The hand:
I’m UTG with .

I open raise to $25. I get five(!) callers including the SB. The callers include all of the other big stacks. Danger danger.

BB is a tight, non-tricky player, and he’s overmatched at this table. He moves all in for $94, which is another $69 raise. He does this with a resigned “I’m ready to go to dinner” sort of move, and I can tell he doesn’t have much of a hand – just taking advantage of a possible lucky opportunity to sextuple-up. (Grow his stack by a multiple of six -- sextuple?)

There’s about $220 in the pot now, its my action, $69 to call, and there are five more players to act after me, including all of the large stacks and tricky players.

What would you do?

[CaptLego]

I'd figure that I'm out of position, probably not the best hand, but with an excellent drawing hand.

I'd probably turn into a calling station pre-flop. No matter what happens, with that many players in the pot I'm probably getting correct pot odds to call.

I'm hoping to have as many players as possible see the flop, and hoping that I hit it. There should be a good-sized pot at the flop --- attractive enough that I can build it more if I hit.

[JM]

Ugh, tough one. You know you're going to get raised if you just call and possibly even if you raise. Seems like you've really only got 2 options, fold or BIG raise to try to scare out those other callers. Not sure which I'd do at this point.

[CaptLego]

I can see the case for a different line here...

Raise to something like $300. That says to the big stacks behind you that you're willing to play for all of their chips, yet you're only risking $300 at this point. (That way, you're making a play for the dead money that's already been put into the pot, keeping the lead in the hand, and sending a message that you're gonna make it expensive if they mess with you (big stack poker)).

You'd also be starting a sidepot, presumably against fewer players, and your AK has a reasonable chance there. I don't think you're up against AA or KK, as they probably would have raised.

If one of the smaller stacks behind you has a good hand, they'll probably go all in, reducing the chance of schooling.

That said: Since you asked "what would you do?", my honest answer is that I'm calling my way to the flop. (I'm a donkey.) The big re-raise here would tip my hand and reduce my chances for action if I do hit the flop, and being out of position on a missed flop against good/tricky players means I'd have to give it up. I'm really not looking to build a big pot preflop but expect I'd have the correct pot odds to call any bets. I'm hoping to hit the flop, and get in a nice check-raise.

[hachkc]

My gut here is probably fold as you're out of position, I'm guessing at least some of your outs are gone and there is probably at least 1 decent pair in play. The only other option is probably a big raise (pot size) as JM suggested and hope you can isolate down to the BB and at worst maybe 1 other.

One question, what sort of raises get respect at this table? Any background on the the LAGs are showing down when they've called raises in the past.

My guess, you folded but your AKs was probably good.

[jojobinks]

the key here is that speak doesn't want high risk moves pf.

if he continues with this hand, he's gonna be in a very large pot very soon, against one or two players with pairs, plus the all in player, who could have two live cards.

so here's a hypothetical situation. the BB has two big cards, but not a big pair (trusting speak's read). one other player has a pair TT+ and was being tricky and will play no matter what, and another play takes a chance with a pair, but it's anything 77+. speak pushes and is called by those two players:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,368,772 games 41.750 secs 104,641 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 11.6010 % 09.89% 01.71% { ATs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 26.6504 % 24.98% 01.67% { AKs }
Hand 3: 37.0370 % 36.50% 00.54% { TT+ }
Hand 4: 24.7116 % 24.24% 00.47% { 77+ }

you can see that speak's equity is 26%, for the mainpot. for the sidepot, which is quite a big bigger...
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,589,727 games 44.032 secs 263,211 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.5968 % 31.38% 00.22% { AKs }
Hand 2: 41.1525 % 40.54% 00.61% { TT+ }
Hand 3: 27.2507 % 26.68% 00.57% { 77+ }

in this pot, speak has less than his share of equity. so forgetting the fact that it's a huge PF risk, he doesn't even have +EV.

i don't think he gets calls from guys with AQ or other non-paired hands if he pushes...but i'd guess he's gonna get at least one call from a guy with a pair trying to become new top dog.

DIFFERENT SITUATION: speak just calls to try to see a flop. in this case, OOP, i'm pretty sure he's gonna see a raise from the guy with the pair that wants to put pressure on the egg-protecting hen.

i'd probably do something stupid here like play for all my chips. from home, at the desk, with time to ponder, i don't mind folding.

[i run 8s]

The way I see it, there is no right move at this point. If there is no right move, that makes any move wrong. So it depends on how wrong you want to be. Me, I call the all in, and not a dime more until I see if I improve on the flop. Reasons being, I'm not ahead, I changed my game plan before the hand, and went with it to this point, and probably can not correct the situation I'm now in with a bet. At best, I think speak is in 3rd , maybe another AK floating out there, and no amount of $$$ get both of the front runners out.

It will be interesting to see (hear) what he did.

[Poboy]

Interesting hand. With my limited NL experience ( ), I'd want to re-raise to isolate, but I would probably just call and fold on a missed flop. Can't wait for the resolution.

[SpeakEasy]

I just called. Everyone else called. 7 to the flop:

. Yuck.

SB instantly moves all in for about $1000. BB in already all in. I think for a bit -- I might actually still have the best hand, but probably not. I fold.

Everyone else folds except one of the other aggressive tricky players in MP.

SB shows .
BB shows .
MP shows .

No more clubs on the turn or river, and no K or Q. SB wins a huge side pot with a pair of fives. BB septuples up in the main pot with a pair of nines. MP leaves in defeat. Wild and wooly game!

As soon as I called PF, I immediately thought that I should have raised. CaptLego nailed my thoughts after the hand was over.

The case for raising:
No one has AA or KK, or they would have re-raised (95% certainty). Its likely that no one has QQ or JJ, or that probably would have been a raise, also (80% certainty). So, the hands out there calling are probably small pairs, big or small suited connectors, and big cards.

All of these hands would likely fold to a re-raise by me PF (75% certainty). There may have been one or two shorter stacks that initially called that would move all in to my re-raise, but I probably wouldn't mind that because I would be a significant favorite or even money against those hands.

The case for calling:
I'm in a comfortable position against the competition against this table, and I will earn more chips with a post-flop game than a PF game. Risking more chips PF against most of the table did not seem to take advantage of my edge over this table.

I lost about $100 in this hand, and its very hard to tell what would have happened if I had raised instead of called. I would have at least lost the main pot to the BB, because he hit a pair and I did not/would not have by the river.. I later took some of SB's spoils from this confrontation, so it turned out OK in the end.

Next time I'm in this situation, I will probably raise and see what happens.

[JM]

Holy crap! SB made out on that hand.

Now an interesting question, who would have played it the same as the MP with the flush draw?