[jldecarlo]

Help me with implied odds in this situation from a recent game:

$1/$2 NL ring game.

I’m in middle position with A 4 . People have been folding a lot to pre flop raises, although there tend to be several limpers in each hand.

One limper to me. I raise to $7. Two more limpers. BB (solid player) raises to $15. I call, two other call. Not much luck thinning the field with my PFR.

Flop K 8 3 .

BB bets $40.

What to do? I’m behind – he has top pair at least. Pot’s about $100 so it’s paying 5:2.

I call, everybody else folds.

Turn is blank.

He bets $40 again. Now $180 in the pot. I call.

River blank. He bets, I fold. He shows A K .



So here’s the question. When I made each of these calls, they seemed reasonable, but in retrospect, from the flop onward, I bet $80 to win $140 which is less than the 2:1 I need to be correct.

In order to figure implied odds for a post flop bet, I need to estimate his turn bet, and I may need to estimate his chances of calling my bet if I make my flush. How do you do this? Are there any rules you use to guesimate these numbers, or is it all in your gut?

L

[KudzuKing]

I need to estimate his turn bet

You don't have to know what he'll bet on the turn, although this info would help with your decision.

If he would call a $20 bet on the turn if you hit, you are making a good call.
Most people would call more than that in this situation.

edit:and the turn call is a no brainer.

[jldecarlo]

Originally Posted by KudzuKing

edit:and the turn call is a no brainer.

That part I know, it's the flop bet I question. I think I played it right, just reviewing things in my head.

L

[dad604]

You don't have the odds to call on the flop. He make a good bet so that you don't have the odds. You do have the odds to call when he bet only $40, he should have betted al least 50%-60%. You have better than the 4:1 needed for the turn call. That is pot odds, you have higher implied odds if he will call a bet if you hit the flush.

[KudzuKing]

Originally Posted by jldecarlo

That part I know, it's the flop bet I question. I think I played it right, just reviewing things in my head.

L

I think I was in error on my first post. 2:1 odds on two cards to come, not 1.

So, on turn-
you've got 9 cards out of 47 that will win for you, so you'd need to win app. $170 bucks to make calling worthwhile.

There's $100 already. You'd need to get $70 more out of him.

edit: and you'd have 2 betting rounds to get the $70. So figuring whether or not he's able to lay down top pair is the question.

[Poboy]

I don't like the PF raise, but on the flop, you have the implieds I think. If the 5 falls on the turn, no way does he not lead at it. On the turn I'd reevaluate, but then he wuss bets, making that not necessary.

[jldecarlo]

Originally Posted by Poboy

I don't like the PF raise.

I don't routinely raise suited aces, just varying things a bit at what had been a tight table.

L

[gmunny]

JD,
When looking at implied odds, you also need to look at how deep your stack as well as everyone in the hand. On the flop you not only need to see what it will cost you vs. what's in the pot, but also estimate the turn and river bets and how much you think you can win if your card hits, which is why you need to see how deep the other players stacks are and assess would the players pay you off if the flush card hits.

If your assessment of the BB as a truly solid player, he would probably put you on a flush draw and not pay you off a big amount, so you should factor that your possible win would be small, meaning that if you had equally big stacks compared to the pot size, you can not assume you he will pay you off when the card hits. Many solid players should be able to lay down top pair on a flush board, especially since 4 people saw the flop. It also depends on what your table image is.

Here is my thinking, you made a move at the pot in MP representing a slightly larger hand and the solid player re-raises you the minimum in the BB. Any raise in the BB, especially by a solid player, should set off warning signals as he/she is in bad post-flop position. Also the size of the bet would also be a warning as he only doubled your raise, meaning he wanted you and the others to call, which means he probably has a pretty big hand.

On the flop, he bets out a good size bet (2/3 of the pot), so I think your initial assessment of top pair is correct and he is trying to make the flush draws pay. I think here you are in bad position as there are 2 players behind you to act. You don't know if they are going to fold, call or raise. Obviously on a draw you'd want them to call, so unless they are calling stations, I would fold here (unless I am sure that the BB will pay me off if my flush card hits or I if I am setting up a bluff I would re-raise). I am not sure if the others will call, so if I call and someone behind me raises, I'm screwed. Now this assumes I have a decent stack left compared to the pot. If I think I will be pot committed to this hand because of my stack size (say you call $40 and have only $40-$50 left), I may push all-in here and gamble. You may get the BB to fold if he thinks you have trip 8's and you are 2-1 against to hit your hand with 2 cards coming.

Of course this is my .02 and many folks may disagree, but that's what I think.
G$

[KudzuKing]

Very good, gmunny. The 2 players yet to act are a Major consideration, and I overlooked it in my analysis. I gotta lot of work to do!

[snuix114]

I mostly agree with gmunny:

For implied odds you need to know how much more you can get off the opponent if you make your hand (stack size and how much of it he will call off). You are probably correct that you shouldn't have called the flop bet. Since you put him on top pair you have to beleive he's going to bet again so the price you are getting on the flop is actually worse than what you need BECAUSE you only get one shot at the card before facing another bet, not two shots.

My $0.01 (i don't seem to have 2 on me...)