[DoubleDeuce]

I'm curious at what point someone is willing to push their chips in based upon a coin flip situation.

This weekend I played an online NLHE MTT. $30 buy-in with about 190 players and payout for the top ten. First was $1700, second $1100, and on down.

I managed to make the final table even though I was shortstack for almost the entire tourney. Their were two grande size chip leaders and then everyone else. Chip leaders had stacks that varied between $80k and $110K while everyone else was $45k and under, usually around $25k and $30k. My M for the most part was between 5-8 through this period. Everytime I started getting blinded out I managed to pick up a big hand.

Anyways I make it down to six-handed. Payout for sixth is $370. Payout moves up about $100 or so each spot with a bigger jump for 1 & 2. The big chip leader is behind me on the BB. I have QJs in the SB. My M is about 6 or 7. Everybody has folded and I limp in. He throws another $30k into the pot which is the rest of my stack. Would you call knowing that he probably has low pocket pair?

Before you respond let me give you some more background info:

The big stack behind me was very aggressive, especially with the chance to eliminate someone. I had been stuck with him at a couple of tables and played with him for at least an hour straight. Routinely he would make 10xBB preflop raises which would put most people all-in. Even in the face of a raise he would reraise if he had any type of pocket pairs. I know because he showed them frequently. Pocket 5s, pocket 8s, pocket 10s, he probably had about 8-10 pocket pairs in that hour alone. Whenever he did get called either his pocket pairs held up or if he did lose then he stole the blinds back.

Not only that he showed a propensity for recklessness...trying to straight up bluff the other big stack with 49. He lost some of his chips there but managed to knock out the other shortstacks to regain his lead.

Anyways at one point in a tourney do you gamble? What cards are you willing to gamble with?

I'll provide the results later.

[jojobinks]

so he's looking to get you to fold, or to get lucky and bust you.

let's call his range any A, any suited K, any pocket pair, and any two broadway...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,472,566,976 games 5.313 secs 465,380,571 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.6230 % 42.97% 01.65% { QJs }
Hand 2: 55.3770 % 53.73% 01.65% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

if we tighten up the range to what you say, and include all pocket pairs plus big hands that aren't pocket pairs, it get's considerably worse:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

753,413,760 games 1.516 secs 496,974,775 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.1733 % 39.77% 00.40% { QJs }
Hand 2: 59.8267 % 59.42% 00.40% { 22+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }

[jojobinks]

ooh. i forgot to include the punchline. Q high sucks. this is not the time to gamble.

vs any pair, btw.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

493,143,552 games 1.015 secs 485,855,716 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.9163 % 42.57% 00.35% { QJs }
Hand 2: 57.0837 % 56.74% 00.35% { 22+ }

[99%evil]

Not sure, but If you're in the SB, you don't have that much invested. You have higher suited connectors though and I might go for it if I was assuered the BB was going to fold. I'd only like my chanes in a heads up situation. It's quite possible he's making this play with AX, or KX and your Q,J could be a gamble to go with. Suited and connected gives you that many more possibilities. If the villain has a propencity to be overly aggressive with garbage than the calue of these cards may even be better than we think. He just may be using his stack to try and steal blinds from the small stacks, you could have him dominated.

Yoou're in the money and if you're sure it'll be a heads up play, I'd go for it. You could also fold and have an entire round before the BB hits you to try and get a better hand, nothing like doubling up now though...

[Poboy]

Originally Posted by DoubleDeuce

The big stack behind me was very aggressive, especially with the chance to eliminate someone. I had been stuck with him at a couple of tables and played with him for at least an hour straight. Routinely he would make 10xBB preflop raises which would put most people all-in. Even in the face of a raise he would reraise if he had any type of pocket pairs.

Given this, and with the big stack, I'm going to try and wait for a big hand and trap him. Also, if this is the way he is, no limping from the SB. If you don't want to put in a lot of your chips, just fold. Otherwise, push. That's the kind of gamble I want to take, moreso than a specific set of cards. In general, I'd rather take shots at middle to small stacks rather than a guy who can afford to toss in a loose call.

[gwilkx]

if your M is only 6 or 7, limping basically becomes your worst option, and may have created the situation for you. you're telling him that you want to see a cheap flop, and he knows that he can make you fold by putting you all in. when M is that low, it's all-in (first in the pot), raise with 1/3 of your chips, or muck 'em.

as far as when i decide to just push it all into the pot - i'd rather wait for any ace, K8+, or any pair. when it comes to desperation time, i pick any hand that has 2 ways to win (suited connectors, suited big cards, unsuited connectors, etc). Queens and Jacks seem to always get me in trouble since you're often called by A's and K's, and when you do hit a good flop your opponents have straight draws all over the place.

for some reason, i often find my desperation move comes with A-rag, T9 or a low pair . . .

gw-

[dad604]

With 6 left and short stack, I would be incline to gamble but not with Q high. I would pick better cards first.

[Pavel6969]

Easy fold here. Queen high isn't even a hand I would ever consider putting all my chips in preflop with.

[w16227]

You say thet your M is around 6 or 7 - but this is not enough informaion.

What were the blinds/anties at this point?


Based on your read of this player, limping was the worst option. You know that he is willing to play over the top, so what did you expect him to do?

Raise or fold preflop. Depending upon the size of the blinds, all in may have been your best option.

If the blinds are not that large, then make a 2-3 BB raise to see where you stand. If this guy is ALWAYS raising (and you do not want to , then fold.

An aggressive player with a big stack is very hard to play against. You need to hammer them with a decent hand. Is QJ that hand? Shorthanded this would be a maybe in my book.

Given the described situation, I would fold. This is too big of a bet to call with QJ. If I had raised a decent amount preflop, then I would have to reevaluate the odds based on the pot size. Knowing me, I would have raised enough to make this a non decision (pot comitting myself).

[VARoadstter]

Originally Posted by gwilkx

if your M is only 6 or 7, limping basically becomes your worst option, and may have created the situation for you. you're telling him that you want to see a cheap flop, and he knows that he can make you fold by putting you all in. when M is that low, it's all-in (first in the pot), raise with 1/3 of your chips, or muck 'em.

I have nothing to add except that GW is spot on.