[ky70]

Please read and discuss

From Daniel Negreanu's latest blog:
"In the past I have written several three- or even four-part columns dealing with my run toward the final table of a tournament and my eventual win. Well, these days I haven’t gotten out of the first day in a while, so I’m stuck with writing about hands that happened early in a tournament!

In the last issue, I shared with you the very first hand of the Borgata event, in which my Q-Q cost me $8,350 against my opponent’s K-K. Well, in this issue, I am going to recount a hand that happened at the next level with $50-$100 blinds and me sitting with $14,450 in chips.

A middle-position player made it $225 to go and was called by the player in the cutoff seat. The button, who’d already busted a player, reraised to $1,000. Now, this player was in lots of hands, but he didn’t raise before the flop all that much, and had never reraised anyone before.

Well, I was sitting in the big blind and looked down at K-K. For some odd reason, the situation had me a little worried right off the bat. I considered flat-calling, but then I worried that the other two players might call, flop a set, and send me to the rail.

With about $1,500 already in the pot, I thought it was best to protect my hand and put in a raise. I called the $1,000, and made it $3,000 to go, leaving myself with $10,450. The first two players folded, and then the player on the button moved all in.

Yikes! Never in my 14 years of poker have I ever had a situation come up in which it was correct to lay down a pair of kings before the flop. That’s just not my style. If I was ever going to make a laydown like that, this seemed like the right spot to do it.

It was early in the tournament, and there was a raise, a call, a reraise, my reraise, and yet one more reraise before the flop. The only tricky part of the situation was that I was dealing with a novice player who might not understand that I would need to have a very strong hand to make a reraise in that spot.

So, before I made this crucial decision, I decided to try to talk it out of him. I wanted him to tell me he had aces. He looked at me and said something like, “I have you beat,” in an honest tone, “I’ll even show you the hand.”

Now, normally when someone says that, they aren’t all that strong, but this guy liked me. He was playing in the tournament for a good time. I could tell that he was being honest and wasn’t bluffing at all. It seemed as though he was happy with winning the pot right then and there, and was slightly worried about getting his aces cracked.

So, after our dialogue, I was 100 percent convinced that my opponent wasn’t bluffing, and didn’t have A-K, either. The only possible hand he could have that I could beat was Q-Q, I figured, and I could tie him if he had the other two kings.

The next step was to count up the pot and see what kind of price I was being laid. There was $6,500 in the pot, so I had to call $10,450 to win $16,950. That’s right around 1.6-1 odds. The trick now was to factor in the chances that my opponent had aces, coupled with the chances that my K-K would beat A-A.

I finally figured that with my K-K being a 4-1 underdog and me being well over 95 percent sure that my opponent had A-A, I simply couldn’t make the call. Plus, the deciding factor was that I still had $10,450 in chips and the blinds were just $50-$100. There was no need for me to do any guesswork in such a marginal situation, since I could surely find a better spot at such a soft table.

So, after agonizing for a little while, I finally sent my two kings to the muck before the flop for the first time in my career.

My opponent promised that he would show me his hand, and I felt a lump in my throat before he turned it over. Before his cards hit the felt faceup, I saw paint on the cards and knew before he showed me that he had Q-Q! Oh, man, those queens were tough to look at.

As tough as it was to see that hand, I went over the hand again and again in my mind and didn’t think I made such a horrible play. Sure, as it turned out, it was a statistical nightmare to fold as a 4-1 favorite when the pot was actually laying me about 1.6-1! If you look at it like that, then boy, did I ever blow it.

Of course, that’s just not how poker works, though, and if you never make the wrong laydown from time to time, well, you just aren’t trying very hard to play well.

In this situation, I put extra emphasis on my instincts and my reading ability, and less emphasis on the pot odds I was being laid. Why? Well, because I have a lot of confidence in my ability to make the right decision in difficult situations.

I was wrong this time, but I’ll tell you what — I was proud of the fact that I was giving it my all. I easily could have just made the call and said, “Well, there was nothing I could do.” I just don’t believe in doing that. If you try your hardest, there is often something you can do to avoid disaster.

If you never try to play “above the rim” and just make automatic decisions based solely on the numbers, you simply will never become an elite poker player.

There isn’t one successful player in the world who can win at the highest levels without having confidence in his ability to make sharp laydowns based on what his gut is telling him."

[jmda]

I like the play. Early in a tournament, and the player could just as easily have AA. I have been in a similar situation twice with JJ (which is really not the same, but my read was correct both times, but one time I called). I put a player I am familiar with on AA and correctly folded another time a mid position limper reraised my big raise and I said you must have AA or KK, but called anyway with my JJ and of course was knocked out of the tournament by KK.

[ky70]

Originally Posted by jmda

I like the play. Early in a tournament, and the player could just as easily have AA. I have been in a similar situation twice with JJ (which is really not the same, but my read was correct both times, but one time I called). I put a player I am familiar with on AA and correctly folded another time a mid position limper reraised my big raise and I said you must have AA or KK, but called anyway with my JJ and of course was knocked out of the tournament by KK.

The most interesting preflop action I was involved in was when I had JJ early (2nd blind level) in a home game. Middle position opens pot by raising 4X the big blind. I'm next to act and I reraise up to 8X the big blind (doubling the previous raise). Late position re-re raises all-in for 25X the big blind to go. Middle position calls and I think for .5 seconds and fold. MP flips over KK, LP flips over AA...the Aces hold up.

[ACE'S FULL]

Originally Posted by jmda

I like the play. Early in a tournament, and the player could just as easily have AA. I have been in a similar situation twice with JJ (which is really not the same, but my read was correct both times, but one time I called). I put a player I am familiar with on AA and correctly folded another time a mid position limper reraised my big raise and I said you must have AA or KK, but called anyway with my JJ and of course was knocked out of the tournament by KK.

I would have to agree with you here. I think that early in the tourament this was the correct play, yes he did get good odds on his money. Good odds are one thing but when you go broke that early were those "good odds" realy that good??

[jojobinks]

i don't recommend that players like us make these types of reads, btw.

getting all your money in PF with KK is pretty...darn...good. and you have to be a world class player to be pass that type of opportunity, especially against only one player. that being said, if i were me? i'd have called in a shot.

but if i were DN, if i knew i was the best player at the table, if i had a whole day ahead of me during which i'd KNOW that i'd be able to exploit the weaker players, then passing here isn't horrible. i think he's wrong to pretend he was 95% sure the guy had AA. i don't think reads like that are possible (unless you're hellmuth ).

[ky70]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

...i think he's wrong to pretend he was 95% sure the guy had AA. i don't think reads like that are possible (unless you're hellmuth ).

........

[jojobinks]

seriously. my boy harrington, btw, writes that you have to ALWAYS factor in a 10% chance that your villain is on a bluff. DN, as usual, uses 2+2 type stuff to make his decisions, while still discounting them.

[Pavel6969]

No bet in the world will force me out of Kings preflop.

[Tatdave]

The other thing to consider is how much did the info that the other player held QQ pay off DN later? I bet that information was later worth at least as much as the laydown cost him.

[BigKyle]

Late in a tourney with six players left last night I was in a pot where an early player (tight player) raised to T8,000, I called with QQ, and a medium-short stacked player in the small blind went all-in for T12,000 total. The original player went all-in and I had a decision. There was about T44,000 in the main and sidepots (my 8k, 12k from player 2 and about 24k from player 1) in the pot and I had to call T16,000 to win the pot. I was being offered 2.75:1 odds with pocket Queens, but if I lost, I would have about T16,000 left and be shortstacked. I thought I was the best player at the table so if I got away from the hand I would have enough chips to come back and win. Ultimately, I laid it down and the tight player turned over KK and the other guy turned over 10-10. The KK held up and I ended up beating that guy for the tournament win. Laying down big pairs preflop is hard, and its harder with KK than with QQ, but I feel like I made the right play even if I was getting almost 3-to-1. I went with my read and made what I thought was the right play, which, I think, trumps my attempts at the mathematical calculations anyday.