Call the All-in? WWYD - See Post #17 for OUTCOME!

[TX_kiwi]

It is late in a $20 buy-in cash game. Original table of eight down to five:

Birthday boy: $45

Me: $40

Villan 1: $30

Villan 2: $30

Watcher: $15

Blinds are now $1/$2 raised about 20 hands ago, by mutual agreement, from the original 25c/50c.

It's in the early morning and there's been a lot of drinking all night (not by me I had to drive ).

The guy's are all bantering with each other and everyone (but me it seems) is playing very aggressively. I've seen a lot of bluffing and calling high bets with marginal hands, from everyone who remains.

In late position, I'm on:



Pre-flop raise to $3 by Villan 1, called by Villan 2 and me.

Flop comes:



Villan 1 swiftly calls 'all-in'. Villan 2 thinks for a bit and 'calls'. Approx $63 in the pot.

I've got them both covered.

Would you call?

[TX_kiwi]

P.S I'm hoping that someone with a good odds calculator will run the numbers on this (perhaps wait for a bit to see how everyone votes?)

[Couga]

I call. You are getting 2+:1 and you have around 10 outs 2x. Looks like an Overpair and AJ or some draw to me so your spades and 4s work for you (maybe even an Ace).

- Couga

[whataboutj]

I agree with Couga. I think your up against one paired Ace and one paired 8 - but you have 10 outs twice and are getting more than aufficient odds to call
J

[TX_kiwi]

Sorry - had to change it - it was a not a on the flop. Sorry if this invalidates the first three votes - although somehow, I don't think so when ya look at the pot odds.

[jldecarlo]

Originally Posted by whataboutj

I agree with Couga. I think your up against one paired Ace and one paired 8 - but you have 10 outs twice and are getting more than aufficient odds to call
J

I would have to run this on pokerstove, but I think it's closer than that. If either opponent has a set, then you are worse than 1 in 4 to win, not 1 in 3. I probably make this play against better players, not drunk guys I think I can beat.

L

[TX_kiwi]

Originally Posted by jldecarlo

I probably make this play against better players, not drunk guys I think I can beat.L

That's an interseting observation (and is exactly why it's good to get feedback here). Thanks

However, I have to confess that I did not think about this (i.e that I can probably do well in the long run, so no need to take the shot now).

[TX_kiwi]

Originally Posted by jldecarlo

If either opponent has a set, then you are worse than 1 in 4 to win, not 1 in 3.

I don't get this -

Put one (or both) of them on a set. Therefore, ignore the three Aces as my 'outs'. My nut flush draw would still have 'em beat. There's 8 outs for the spade flush, 39 cards remaining in the deck, 2 cards to come so odds are roughly 1 in 2½.

Or am I missing something ... ?

[jldecarlo]

Originally Posted by TX_kiwi

I don't get this -

Put one (or both) of them on a set. Therefore, ignore the three Aces as my 'outs'. My nut flush draw would still have 'em beat. There's 8 outs for the spade flush, 39 cards remaining in the deck, 2 cards to come so odds are roughly 1 in 2½.

Or am I missing something ... ?

You're ignoring the fact that a flopped set improves to a boat or better about a third of the time.

L

[scottwire]

Originally Posted by TX_kiwi

I don't get this -

Put one (or both) of them on a set. Therefore, ignore the three Aces as my 'outs'. My nut flush draw would still have 'em beat. There's 8 outs for the spade flush, 39 cards remaining in the deck, 2 cards to come so odds are roughly 1 in 2½.

Or am I missing something ... ?

because even if you hit your flush, someone with a set can equally hit a full house

since your opponents are playing a lot of marginal hands, I think you have to call here. If they have hands like KJ and QJ you will have ace outs enough to make this +EV and just a break even play. You're probably ~45ish+ percent to win if this is the case. If someone does have the set, you're still 27% to win.

If they were playing very tight post flop, you could probably fold since it would be a marginal high variance play.