Major, Major Suckout

KingZilla · #1 (**permalink**) 02-18-2008, 12:57 PM

Saturday night tourney with rank amateur players. I am the most experienced player at these games:
I'm short stacked in the BB and have 7-7 in the hole. A couple limp into the pot, then SB raises to 3x BB (SB has slightly less chips than I do). I call, all others fold. I'm now planning to push on the flop, no matter what to put the SB at risk for her whole stack. Flop is 5-6-Q (rainbow). SB c-bets the original 3x BB. I know I'm dead to the Q or any over pair, but I pushed all in representing a big hand and I am not known to bluff. SB calls and shows 8-8 to my 7-7... now I'm sick to my stomach that she called the all in with a Q on the board to her 88. Turn is a 4, River is a 3, giving me the high straight! I am usually the one who gets sucked out on. And before someone says "she made a good call" read the rest:
I'm no poker pro, but I have been giving pointers to my players on holdem. I asked her if she had a read on me, and she said she had no clue but called off ALL her chips anyway. I have told her time and time again, that she should fold a middle pair in this situation. She said she "felt" another 8 was coming..... I think this is why the poker gods smiled upon me and gave me the near impossible runner-runner. No matter how I try to instruct some of my players, they always go with "a feeling". Those few rarely make it into the money.

BassVillan · #2 (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 06:24 PM

First off, if I'm you, short stacked in the bb with two limpers and sb raises 3x, I'm shoving. Calling with the intent to move in on the flop is the weak play here. Most of the time that sb is raising with overs AK-AQ etc. For you to just call with your 77 and planning to move in on the flop regardless of what it is pretty ridiculous imho. Being shortstacked I would want to move in pre flop and put the decision in there hands. 77 while shortstacked is not a hand you care to see a flop with and then move in. And as for her calling your a-i, I don't blame her, she's shortstacked as well.

jojobinks · #3 (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 06:50 PM

since we have no idea how many BBs you had/she had it's hard to say how bad her play was.

addendum: since you said you were shortstacked, i usually think you have around 10bb. if so, then there's 2 limpers plus a 3x raise and your call. now 8bb in the pot and you have 5bb, right?

she cbets, you push, and now she's getting (8 preflop + her 3bb cbet and your call = 14bb plus your remaining chips which can't be much) something like 4 or 5:1 that you don't have a queen or bigger pair. if that's true, it doesn't matter what she thinks you have. she needs to call. i guess this is especially true if she has a very big or very small stack.

also, if you're that short, she knows that you'd probably just move in preflop with a hands like AQ and 99+, and most likely fold hands like QT or the two pair hands. so what exactly should she think you have and pass on this little old call.

KingZilla · #4 (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 07:42 PM

Very good analysis here guys. The point is this person wouldn't even be able to read your posts for lack of understanding the jargon. I am talking about a rank amateur here, who only called because she had a "feeling" she might hit another card to make a set. I was beat and I knew it. I got a virtually impossible runner/runner turn-river to win that pot. Furthermore, whether there was calling equity or not, she was calling off ALL her chips, facing elimination from the tourney and she routinely sees me win pots and showing the best hand (not bluffing). Thanks for the analysis, they are spot on and would be a great condolence to me if I were in my opponent's position. I guess I was just astonished that I caught a miracle suck out. That usually happens against ME (A LOT) when I play this particular group.

jojobinks · #5 (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KingZilla

Very good analysis here guys. The point is this person wouldn't even be able to read your posts for lack of understanding the jargon. I am talking about a rank amateur here, who only called because she had a "feeling" she might hit another card to make a set. I was beat and I knew it. I got a virtually impossible runner/runner turn-river to win that pot. Furthermore, whether there was calling equity or not, she was calling off ALL her chips, facing elimination from the tourney and she routinely sees me win pots and showing the best hand (not bluffing). Thanks for the analysis, they are spot on and would be a great condolence to me if I were in my opponent's position. I guess I was just astonished that I caught a miracle suck out. That usually happens against ME (A LOT) when I play this particular group.

groovy. if she's that bad, though...don't attempt to bluff her.

NoFear · #6 (**permalink**) 02-27-2008, 08:14 PM

That makes poker so great and fun because everyone plays different.

You play high card I will call you my low and let the flop decide who will win.

ovo · #7 (**permalink**) 02-28-2008, 08:56 AM

Although I understand the feeling of losing a winning hand, I kind of get tired of hearing suckout. It's all gambling and the odds are against you, but you enter into a hand, knowing there is a small chance you might hit the card that wins it for you. Sure, knowledgeable players know which hands to fold, etc... and you get a table full of knowledgeable players and the game goes in the general direction that knowledgeable players play. ( if any of this makes sense

But there is always a wildcard that makes things exciting. Suckouts are fun to see, but crappy to lose to.

BassVillan · #8 (**permalink**) 02-28-2008, 10:49 AM

In poker/hold 'em, the odds are not always against you. What in the heck do think mathematics are for? To calculate your odds and probabilities of winning. This isn't roll of the dice or a spin of the roullette wheel. When you are a 4-to-1 favorite to win a hand after the flop and get out drawn on, that is a "suckout" my friend, and they suck.