[jdunford]

Originally Posted by hachkc

Interesting analysis and I to am surprised it was that close.

Well, I played in a 13-player live tourney tonight. And I cracked AA on a play that reminded me of that hand hachkc had.

3 players remaining. I'm SB with 78o. BB is by far the big stack, and has been uber-aggressive all tournament -- has literally been involved in 3/4 of all hands at his table (which I've been at), at bets every flop, etc. I'd been giving him walks a lot since we've been 3-handed because he almost always raises with ATC, but for some reason I decided to call, and was willing to call a small raise with 78o. Well, he checked -- VERY suspicious.

Flop was 4-5-7, two suits. I've got top-pair, over-card kicker, and gut-shot draw. I bet half the pot (i.e. min-bet). He pushes ("I raise you all-in"). I figure he flopped (ANOTHER) set, but decide to call anyway. He has also shown down garbage or 2 overcards when "I raise you all-in" and/or calling someone's all-in raise, so he really could have anything here.

He flips over AA... and I mock him for checking from the BB. Sure enough, turn is a 6, and he's drawing dead!







Oh, but you'll never guess what happened ...







Got it all-in pre-flop with AA against a guy from my lab group. He decided to play a "donkament" with us for the first time. He'd been pretty tight all game, erring on the passive side -- but then again he was stuck on the right of the uber-aggressive guy. Anyway, he makes a 3xBB raise from UTG with about 10 BB's remaining. I'm the SB and I've been very TAG all game... rarely involved in a hand, with my standard pre-flop raise to 5 or 6 x BB, and only showing down big pairs and AKs, etc. Well, I raised not even quite twice his raise (meant to raise double, but mis-heard his "raise of 900" thinking it was a "raise to 900"... oh well). I was hoping it wasn't too suspiciously weak, but I really wanted him to push. BB folded. "Villain" contemplated it for a reasonably long while... then pushed. I called (instantly) and flipped over my AA. He showed AJo.

I stood up like it was my tourney life on the line... and declared "Yep, here it comes: Trip Jacks".

There was a big "Ooooh" when a J came on the flop. Then the turn and the river... didn't help! I WON WITH AA!!!! First time in 2008! Took until Feb 28, but it finally happened!




I ended up chopping the 1st/2nd prize money. It took a LONG time to wear down the uber-aggressive guy, and by the time we eliminated him, we were both ready to pass out.

[tomb1]

Originally Posted by JoseRijo

Hachkc, that hand deserves it's own thread!

My first thought is "wow, the villain played awful." But the hand is actually a
complete coin flip after the flop:

Poker Odds Calculator (twodimes.net)
pokenum -h ah ad - kc 2c -- 3c 7c 2h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7c 3c 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 497 50.20 493 49.80 0 0.00 0.502
Kc 2c 493 49.80 497 50.20 0 0.00 0.498

When I'm playing, I don't readily recognize flush-draw+third-pair as a big
drawing hand. I'm going to have to watch for those from now on.

Originally Posted by hachkc

Interesting analysis and I to am surprised it was that close.

Yes, it's a coin flip after the flop, but NOT when the money went in. He's behind about 30/70 after the turn, and his push was a bad move. Your call was the right move. Then the suck-out....

[tomb1]

Originally Posted by jdunford

He flips over AA... and I mock him for checking from the BB. Sure enough, turn is a 6, and he's drawing dead!


There was a big "Ooooh" when a J came on the flop. Then the turn and the river... didn't help! I WON WITH AA!!!! First time in 2008! Took until Feb 28, but it finally happened!

Very good! Well played and two nice endings . . . one in each direction!

[john]

I think if the odds played the way they are meant to online the donks would go broke to quickly and eventually give up. I think it is in the best interests of online poker rooms to keep as many peoples bankrolls alive as thet can. This allows them to keep steadly taking more rake as more tables are running and more people play for longer before going broke. Im sure most hands are randomly created but I dont think it is inconceivable that the odd pre determined round is dealt to restock a donk to keep playing a little longer. Im sure poker sites have graphs and statistics of each player. It would be very easy to steal from the strong and give to the weak simply to keep more people interested and playing. If you think about how money travels within an online pokersite this theory makes perfect sense (Unlike parts of this post). The majority of deposits would be made by the losing players at lower stakes. If the odds played as they are meant to the donks would quickly go broke. Good players would build there bankrolls but loose it the better players at higher stakes. These better player would then loose to the great players at higher stakes. This pattern would continue and everyones money would steadily travel to the highest stakes where it would be getting added th the pro's bankrolls and eventually withdrawn from the site. This is the worst result for an online poker site. If you think about it you can see why it is far more profitable for a site to keep the money at the bottom of the poker tree and keep throwing the donks a bone far more often then they deserve. This keeps the money within their site with more people playing and more rake to be collected. This is what i think when im running bad anyway.

[jdunford]

Originally Posted by john

This is what i think when im running bad anyway.

That has definitely crossed my mind a few times... but I've had my share of success, too, so I'm not entirely convinced. Then again, maybe I'm on their "donk to throw a bone to" list.

I've also noticed a similar correlation: If I'm the big stack at a table after playing for an hour or two (quite common) and I un-check the "Auto-post blinds" option when planning to leave, I find that I almost certainly get dealt a monster starting hand (AA, KK, or QQ) in that final orbit... and lose most of my profits when some numb-skull pushes with a pp < TT (or A9s or something), I call, and he flops quads (or the nut flush, etc.). Hmm.... feels like the poker site is saying:
"Thought you were leaving with a profit, huh? think again! That money stays on the tables!"

I've learned to just leave, regardless of table position. Hanging around for "one more orbit" is a -EV play.

(and I now refer to the "Auto-post blinds" box as the "Deal me a suck-out" button).

[Sneds]

Originally Posted by jdunford

OK, how about this: When I FINALLY win a showdown with AA (live or online), it'll be my last post to this thread.

.....

[jdunford]

Originally Posted by jdunford

OK, how about this: When I FINALLY win a showdown with AA (live or online), it'll be my last post to this thread where I whine about losing with AA.

Fixed my post.

[ACE'S FULL]

Originally Posted by imthatguy

Here Jeff, you can have this for your signature when you're ready...

How did you do this... ???

[jdunford]

Originally Posted by ACE'S FULL

How did you do this... ???

Well, it was really hard... took me about 2 months to finally pull it off... but with enough perseverance and determination, I was able to actually WIN a showdown with AA!! (see post # 41)

(I know that's not what you meant)

imthatguy?

[jdunford]

Well, I'm sworn off of whining about losing with AA and have promised not to post to this thread anymore - unless there's an exceptional hand - and here's one from Sunday night on P*. Forgive me for not having the hand history, but I remember it pretty vividly.

Background:
I'd been watching the Dallas vs. San Jose hockey game and stayed up to watch it end. Decided to play some poker while I was at it. Well, the game went to the 7th period, so it's 2:30 AM now, and Morrow finally scored the game winner.

I've unchecked the "auto-post blinds" buttons on all 4 of my 6-max $25NL tables and am winding down for the night. Down to my last hand at my last table (UTG), and I'm dealt AA. My immediate thought: Great, there go my winnings for the night.

I don't remember exact stack sizes or suits, but I'm the big stack (maybe ~ $60), and Villain has $23.50. He has been a pain in my butt all night; keeps out-flopping my high pairs, and on 2 occasions when I had AK on a K-high flop, he's played KX and caught X on the river for 2-pair. I don't remember how much BigBlind has; probably around $25.

Villain posts SB of 10¢.
BigBlind posts BB of 25¢.
jdunford is dealt [ ].
jdunford raises to $1. (in hindsight, I wish I'd raised more, but I expected somebody behind me to re-raise, as had been the trend at this table)
Three players folded.
Villain calls 90¢. (could have anything)
BigBlind calls 75¢. (could have anything)
($3 in the pot, less rake)

Flop:
[ ]

Villain bets $2.
BigBlind calls $2. (took him a while)
jdunford raises to $10. (after thinking for a long while)
Villain calls $8. (instantly)
BigBlind folds.
($25 in the pot, less rake)

Turn:
[]

Villain checks. (after thinking for a long time)
jdunford checks. (took a few seconds; I'm pretty certain I'm beat - just hoping the board pairs on the river)

River:
[]

Villain bets $12.50 and is all-in. (didn't hesitate)
jdunford goes into the bank.

jdunford writes (chat): This is my last hand tonight
jdunford writes (chat): And I'm holding AA...

What would you do?

Outcome to be posted tomorrow evening.