The Right Play?

UsIreland · #1 (**permalink**) 12-16-2006, 01:04 PM

Hi

Last night I was lucky enough to win my second tournament at our local pub (you may remember I won one a while back where I had a massive chip lead going into the final table).

Last night early on things turned out well for me, I made some bad calls and got lucky a couple of times (called with a open ended straight draw and a flush draw and hit the flush to bet Top Pair). We had one player at our table that had being trying to push people around and was doing it with not a whole lot. I was in the small blind and The guy doubled the big blind, it folded round to me and I had made my mind up any two face cards or a pair and I'm playing, I look down at pocket 3's and move in. The big blind goes all in but only has one more big blind so I am not concerned about losing the side pot to him. The other guy asks me do I have Ace's and then says "All in" and turns over Pocket Kings (my heart sinks, I put him all in the first time he actually has a hand, D’oh). The Big Blind flips over AJ/AT or something to that effect.

Flop Comes:
3 B B

Turn:
3

River:
B

So I take all the chips going in as a huge underdog. Yes I thanked the table gods and hoped that I would not get myself into another situation like that.

Now the Situation I want your opinion of it. I came to the final table I had an average chips stack. The 10 big blind rule does not really apply in this tournament because generally the average chip stack at the start of the final table is 3bb, and the chip leader about 10-15. But this is the situation that I am interested in. Lets set the details:
Pay out Structure:
1^st €500
2^nd €300
3^rd €150
4^th €50

Blinds: 5k/10k

My Reads from playing with these guys not only in this tournament but from before:

Dealer: Me 30,000
Small Blind: David 5,000 (Very good player play's very tight but can read people like a book, just taken a beat from me to leave him with 5k)
Big Blind: John 300k+ (Huge Chip Leader, Not a card player, a gambler who will call with virtually any two cards hoping to hit the flop).
Cut Off: Alan 15,000 (Solid player who has no luck what so ever, Often flops the nuts to get beaten by a better had on turn or river).

Hands:

David is all in blind. Alan looks at his cards considers for a few moments and goes all in. Action to me. My Cards:

3s, 3c.

I stop and think. If I go all in its 20k more to John who must call in the hope of taking every one else out, He has already got Dave covered and will call Alan for 5k more. If I call John will raise to force me to fold or go all in.

I sit and think. What would you have done in this situation? I will post what I did over the next few days. But what would you guys have done?

Cheers
Ian

w-thompson · #2 (**permalink**) 12-16-2006, 01:53 PM

The chip leader is probably calling any bet. You have a chance to almost certainly move up from a €50 payout to a €150 and a good chance to move up to a €300 by folding in this spot. I think folding in this spot is good because you will at best be facing 4-6 over cards, and a decent chance of facing an over pair and 3-5 overcards. Thats a lot of cards to dodge to be risking all your chips for. Basically,

bet all your chips for a chance at 3rd or 2nd place €, and risking 4th place or,
fold risking no chips and having a chance at 2nd or 3rd place €.

No matter what you do, the big stack will call. Let this chance for the two short stacks to bust out, you move up a spot or two, then start pushing any two cards...

-Wayne

Harlequin011 · #3 (**permalink**) 12-16-2006, 01:54 PM

Go all in and hope Alan doens't hit one of his overcards. All-in removes any agression from the Gambler. Let him gamble against you, that way you only need to beat him.

If you do that and loose the main pot, you're right back where you started with 30K.

Or you win the hand, and are in second place with a decent chance to win the thing.

BlakeC27 · #4 (**permalink**) 12-17-2006, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Alan 15,000 (Solid player who has no luck what so ever, Often flops the nuts to get beaten by a better had on turn or river).

Alan and I would have a lot to talk about.

I'd agree with Wayne, too many cards to dodge. But then you probably called a flopped quads.

UsIreland · #5 (**permalink**) 12-18-2006, 08:58 AM

Cards Other Players Had:

David: 89s (not bad considering he is all in blind)
John: QTo
Alan: KKo

Now what did I do? Its clear what I should have done at this stage but what did I do? 30k in chips left?

Regards
Ian

jmc · #6 (**permalink**) 12-18-2006, 10:47 AM

I throw away 33 in this spot. 3rd place pays 100 more!

Realize that the big stack could call with almost any 2 cards since a 30k hit to his stack is less than 10%

BlakeC27 · #7 (**permalink**) 12-18-2006, 02:24 PM

Something very dramatic must of happened for you to win the tournament with from this point.

UsIreland · #8 (**permalink**) 12-19-2006, 07:01 AM

My move in this situation was to fold.
I thought I would get your opinions as I thought this may have been the wrong move given the situation. I wanted to see how you guys felt about it. I wasn't sure what the best thing to do was at the time my reading on the situation was:

Best Case Senario (Realistically):
6 overcards

Worst Case Senario(Realistically):
Over Pair
4 Overcards.

Even in the best case senario I'm in trouble so I deceided to fold. I was very proud of myself because I know even a month or weeks ago I would have moved all in and gone out in second place.

The result of the hand?
John flopped and turned a Q to make Trip Queens to bust Alan's Kings.

To win Heads up I got really lucky and first doubled up with 87o (I thought it was 87s until i turned it over [the lighting was not great]) when I flopped and rivered a 7 to make trips. This got me up to about 120k I then doubled up again with K8 vs QT flopping a K. This gave me the chip lead and as I pushed him he started folding his big blinds and was down to about 80k he went all in against me, I had ARag he had KRag and we both hit nothing for me to take it down.

Regards
Ian

Colquhoun · #9 (**permalink**) 12-19-2006, 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UsIreland

I was very proud of myself because I know even a month or weeks ago I would have moved all in and gone out in second place.

Moving all-in in a HEADS-UP situation with 33 would be far more acceptable. You have the chance of pushing the other guy out, and if you get a call, it will most likely be a race. But CALLING 2 all-ins with the chip leader likely to call or raise is suicide. Nice fold.

gwilkx · #10 (**permalink**) 12-19-2006, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Colquhoun

Moving all-in in a HEADS-UP situation with 33 would be far more acceptable. You have the chance of pushing the other guy out, and if you get a call, it will most likely be a race. But CALLING 2 all-ins with the chip leader likely to call or raise is suicide. Nice fold.

couldn't have said it any better.

gw-