[jojobinks]

i don't think he was being sarcastic. i think it was more along the lines of "we're gonna stack an overpair or fold the flop". isn't there another thread around here from today about this kinda hand?

btw, i'm not a great ring game player and don't claim to be. i just know that these games are very passive after the flop and a that makes the raise here is a bit scary. i put that together with "memorable enough hand to post on CT" and figured we were behind.

[Sneds]

I think that if everytime you played suited connectors you either folded the flop or stacked an overpair - poker would be very simple.

JoJo, I don't think you should base your advice on the fact that "it's been posted so must be a suckout" it kind of makes your advice redundant.

Also, I do not believe that you're folding AA here...if you can show me a significant number of time where you folded AA on this kind of flop then I would be very very surprised.

This hand is a push every single time, the board is simply too drawy to let another card come by cheap. By pushing all in, most of the time we're forcing him to make a mistake (calling with TP/FD/SD)

I think you can even get your AI called and still be ahead >80% of the time on this board. To even suggest a fold here is ridiculous.

[TX_kiwi]

Originally Posted by Sneds

This hand is a push every single time, the board is simply too drawy to let another card come by cheap.

Not challanging your logic here re drawing hands, I'm just interested in why you don't put the villan on a straight already after that flop?

[Sneds]

Originally Posted by TX_kiwi

Not challanging your logic here re drwing hands, I'm just interested in why you don't put the villan on a straight already after that flop?

Ok basically in every situation it's almost impossible to put villian on an exact hands, so instead of this we put him on a range.

We think about the previous action and all the hands he may stack off with to try and get a fuller picture.

(This is very very rushed btw - gotta go to get up so early)

So in this situation (although we don't have pf stats) I think the hands that he called the raise with and then may call an all in are as follows:

TP, All pairs except 22 (maybe 33), Ax, Kx (maybe) and then TP with straight draws and I've include just a few 7x for the straight draw.

Now using poker stove, out of the range that I've given him - we're still about a 70% favourite, and I think I've given him quite a wide range because we don't know enough about him preflop. If we know he is an average player, his range gets tighter and consequently there is less that is beating us.

So yeah, you should think of hands in ranges because even though he COULD have flopped a straight, it's only a very small percentage of his total holdings. here is the PokerStove calcs... As you can see I've given him a huge range for the purpose of this hand - with lots of stats we can make it even narrower.

And as I said before, never in a million years is this a fold.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

248,490 games 0.005 secs 49,698,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 4s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.996% 67.10% 01.89% 166743 4705.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 31.004% 29.11% 01.89% 72337 4705.00 { 44+, AsKs, AsQs, AJs-ATs, A6s, KQs, KsJs, KsTs, K6s, QsJs, QsTs, Q6s, J6s, T7s-T6s, 97s-96s, 86s, 76s, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcQs, AdQs, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, As9c, As9d, As9h, A8o, Ac7d, Ac7h, Ad7c, Ad7h, Ah7c, Ah7d, As7c, As7d, As7h, As6c, As6d, As6h, Ac5d, Ac5h, Ad5c, Ad5h, Ah5c, Ah5d, As5c, As5d, As5h, Ac4d, Ac4h, Ad4c, Ad4h, Ah4c, Ah4d, As4c, As4d, As4h, Ac3d, Ac3h, Ad3c, Ad3h, Ah3c, Ah3d, As3c, As3d, As3h, Ac2d, Ac2h, Ad2c, Ad2h, Ah2c, Ah2d, As2c, As2d, As2h, KcQs, KdQs, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, K6o, Q6o, J6o, T7o-T6o, 97o-96o, 86o+, 76o }

[jojobinks]

i'm certainly not gonna go back and forth with you here, sneds, but:

• you're right about basing my advice on the fact that it's posted here.
• you're way off on your range. do you think c/r'ing with air is common at .05/.1? these games are wicked passive. you're behind way more often than 30% here. in addition, you have no less fold equity than in most games (b/c they just don't like to lay down).

i'd do something more like this for a range:
Board: 6c 4s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.902% 49.77% 02.13% 44349 1896.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 48.098% 45.97% 02.13% 40959 1896.00 { 44+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A7s, KsQs, 87s, 65s, A7o, 87o, 65o }

maybe it's too tight, but i don't think so.

btw, in real life i'd often play it the same way vince did. then he'd double up with his crappy 2 pair and i'd vow to take it seriously when i get c/r'ed on the flop.

[BassVillan]

I'm shoving. I think he's either drawing or has a set. If he has a set, well, you just have to pay him off. If he's drawing, you gotta get your money in here and hope for the best. By the way, don't listen to my advice.

[Sneds]

I didn't actually see that it was CR, i thought Villian bet out. I think you've given him a much to tight range - if we don't take the fact that Villian folded into account he can be raising here with any 7 easily and ANY TP. TBh I think he could even be finding out where he is w/ middle pair, although admittedly thats a minute part of his range.

Ultimately, even with your nitty range you're still ahead and that's not even mentioning the pot equity.

If you get reraised on a Kc8s3h board, then it's time to tread carefully. On a connected board w/ FD and plenty of overcards it's time to get it AI

[jojobinks]

Originally Posted by BassVillan

I'm shoving. I think he's either drawing or has a set. If he has a set, well, you just have to pay him off. If he's drawing, you gotta get your money in here and hope for the best. By the way, don't listen to my advice.

if the only two options are he's drawing or he has a set, then you're in bad shape.

Board: 6c 4s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.000% 24.84% 01.16% 9590 448.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 74.000% 72.84% 01.16% 28123 448.50 { 66-44, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, 87s, A7o, 87o }

you have to understand taht if you pay off 60+ bbs every time you have AA and get outflopped you can't win at cash games. in this case, the guy had to call off 30 cents to take $6.50 off you. basically he should call with any two if we know that you'll commit on any flop.

[BassVillan]

Originally Posted by jojobinks

if the only two options are he's drawing or he has a set, then you're in bad shape.

Board: 6c 4s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.000% 24.84% 01.16% 9590 448.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 74.000% 72.84% 01.16% 28123 448.50 { 66-44, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, 87s, A7o, 87o }

you have to understand taht if you pay off 60+ bbs every time you have AA and get outflopped you can't win at cash games. in this case, the guy had to call off 30 cents to take $6.50 off you. basically he should call with any two if we know that you'll commit on any flop.

and perhaps this is why Vince shouldn't listen to my advice. This is simply what I'm doing here. I've got a lot of learning to do and much room to improve but at this point it's going to be extremely rare that I fold/not push in this situation.

[hachkc]

Personally, I based most of my decision on Vince's description of him as unpredictable and aggressive post flop. My read was he was trying to take it away if you were cbetting.