[Diablo_Rojos]

Originally Posted by shanghai_sparky

It is limit.
All I can do is lead with $1.
What if he raises to $2?

sorry can't read

[shanghai_sparky]

fold_a_pair: bets $1
bosnapower: raises $1 to $2
fold_a_pair: raises $1 to $3
bosnapower: raises $1 to $4
Betting is capped
fold_a_pair: calls $1

*** TURN ***


Oh No! the third heart.

I felt like he was bluffing, but at this point I'm scared.
I was trying to push out a draw by maxing the betting.

[noelsarchs]

Man, your worst card. A rag ace or heart draw?

I would do what mightyjim2k suggested at this point and hope for the best. Good thing it's limit.

[shanghai_sparky]

Originally Posted by noelsarchs

Man, your worst card. A rag ace or heart draw?

I would do what mightyjim2k suggested at this point and hope for the best. Good thing it's limit.

At this point, I think I am committed to cold-calling to the river.
If he has it, I'm toast, but then I can see what he is playing, and how.
Two more bets cost me $2 each into a $12 pot.
If a King comes or an ace, then I might raise.

[TheMightyJim2k]

Originally Posted by shanghai_sparky

fold_a_pair: bets $1
bosnapower: raises $1 to $2
fold_a_pair: raises $1 to $3
bosnapower: raises $1 to $4
Betting is capped
fold_a_pair: calls $1

*** TURN ***


Oh No! the third heart.

I felt like he was bluffing, but at this point I'm scared.
I was trying to push out a draw by maxing the betting.

3-betting this flop is really bad unless you have a lot of stats or notes that says 1) this guy would always 3-bet an Ax in BvB pf OR 2) this guys raises the flop as a bluff a lot on paired boards. Even if he is bluffing I don't think 3-betting is necessarily the best play, because if he has air we want him to keep barreling instead of trying to blow him out of the pot. So 3-betting the flop is really bad, and I think you really need to just call down from a raise.

As played I really think you probably ought to just muck the turn. The pot is $12 sure, and you will get 4-1 to call down ($16 between the pot and his big street bets against your $4 to cal down) but what range of hands can we put him on here that we have 25% equity against? I can't think of any.

I think a really really really good exercise for your game would be to come up with an estimated hand range for villain when he raises the flop. Assume that he isn't nuts, and take into account the fact that he didnt 3-bet pf (ie you can probably discount AK, AQ, and 99+). His range probably includes a lot of heart draws, 6x, and weak Ax. Also a certain percentage is going to be bluffs. So check out that range and figure out your equity (you need to use pokerstove for this). This will give you an understanding of how much of an equity edge you have on him.

To do this consider what types of hands are likely to raise you on the flop. Then think about how you make the most money against those hands. Against med pkt pairs, 6x, and bluffs you don't want to reraise and blow him out of the pot, you want to let him bluff. Against Ax you don't want to reraise and bloat the pot when you are drawing to two outs and you probably want to SD the hand. So you'll see that taking a passive approach will get the most money in the long run.

Now take and make an estimated range of hands for when you 3-bet and he caps. His range is now entirely slanted towards Ax, 66, and heart draws assuming he is sane. Based on that range you are basically drawing dead on the turn and need to fold. But the problem is you've bloated the pot with a strong hand for a BvB and you don't want to fold, but you really need to.

This illuminates a really important point in limit hold'em. Don't bloat pots with strong but non-nut hands when you are OOP and likely want/need to showdown. Consider that your opponents range is largely WA or WB you, and take a passive approach to SD. You maximize your win against hands like 6x or pkt pairs that might fold if you put in a ton of action, and you minimize your loss against Ax.

This hand has really indicated some weaknesses in the way you are thinking about the game. The fact that you thought your opponent was bluffing on the flop so you decided to 3-bet shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation. if your opponent is bluffing with a hand that likely is drawing to two outs or less then you want them to keep bluffing and not to try and come over the top. And if he has a heart draw then you can pretty much assume once he raises the flop that he'll charge himself to draw (ie he is going to continue to semi-bluff hoping that he has fold equity) so you don't really need to worry about coming over the top and then leading the turn.

that was a lot of stuff, but hopefully it makes some sense and you can take something from it.

ps: you can't ever push out flush draws with action in limit. don't waste your time trying. you can charge them to draw, but in this case you don't have a strong enough hand to put in all of that action just hoping to charge a draw. especially when if he hits the heart he is going to take you to value town on the turn and river and make the maximum off of you.

[shanghai_sparky]

Thanks for insight Jim.


Here is the conclusion:
*** TURN ***

fold_a_pair: checks
bosnapower: bets $2
fold_a_pair: calls $2

*** RIVER ***

fold_a_pair: checks
bosnapower: bets $2
fold_a_pair: calls $2

*** SHOW DOWN ***
bosnapower: shows (a pair of Aces)
fold_a_pair: shows (two pair, Aces and Kings)
fold_a_pair collected $19.25 from pot

[Poboy]

Originally Posted by TheMightyJim2k

3-betting this flop is really bad unless you have a lot of stats or notes that says 1) this guy would always 3-bet an Ax in BvB pf OR 2) this guys raises the flop as a bluff a lot on paired boards. Even if he is bluffing I don't think 3-betting is necessarily the best play, because if he has air we want him to keep barreling instead of trying to blow him out of the pot. So 3-betting the flop is really bad, and I think you really need to just call down from a raise.

consider what types of hands are likely to raise you on the flop. Then think about how you make the most money against those hands. Against med pkt pairs, 6x, and bluffs you don't want to reraise and blow him out of the pot, you want to let him bluff. Against Ax you don't want to reraise and bloat the pot when you are drawing to two outs and you probably want to SD the hand.

Now take and make an estimated range of hands for when you 3-bet and he caps. His range is now entirely slanted towards Ax, 66, and heart draws assuming he is sane. Based on that range you are basically drawing dead on the turn and need to fold. But the problem is you've bloated the pot with a strong hand for a BvB and you don't want to fold, but you really need to.

This illuminates a really important point in limit hold'em. Don't bloat pots with strong but non-nut hands when you are OOP and likely want/need to showdown.

if your opponent is bluffing with a hand that likely is drawing to two outs or less then you want them to keep bluffing and not to try and come over the top. And if he has a heart draw then you can pretty much assume once he raises the flop that he'll charge himself to draw.

Cliff's notes

[shanghai_sparky]

Originally Posted by Poboy

Cliff's notes

Ditto.
I should have named the thread WWJ2KD?

I made a couple mistakes but came out on the plus side of this one.

[noelsarchs]

Originally Posted by shanghai_sparky

Ditto.
I should have named the thread WWJ2KD?

Go to the first post and do an advanced edit and you can change the thread title there, a bit late, but what the heck.

Nice analysis Jim.

[TheMightyJim2k]

yeah the results help to show why you shouldnt fold in BvB with good made hands, and even though you made an extra 2sb by 3-betting on the flop I still think that just calling down nets you the same amount.

If this guy will bluff raise that flop with just two backdoor draws then we can feel very comfortable that he will bluff the turn and likely the river, so there is no reason for us to put in extra action for the times that he has Ax or a heart draw.

I think the hand also helps us remember another good tool when we are at the table. When the villain does not 3-bet us preflop in a BvB we can remove a lot of Ax hands from his range. Thus it is much less likely that he has Ax on the flop, and bluffs or 6x becomes a larger portion of his range. That should encourage us to become more stubborn and showdown, but also not put in too much action since he may think we have an A and fold his bluffs or med pkt pairs.

good hand and thanks for posting it for discussion.